The biggest concern I have had and still have relates to the
play by play during the storm. Radar imagery as of Thursday afternoon indicates
an area of heavy snow moving northeastward through New England, behind that a
large dry slot where no precipitation has fallen. This initial batch of snow
has been very impressive dumping 3 and even 4 inch an hour snows from eastern
PA to much of Mass but the strengthening low pressure responsible for this is
moving a bit out in front of the deepening upper air support. This essentially
means that MRG and surroundings is in store for an initial burst of snow
Thursday afternoon. During the evening and into the early part of the overnight
some dry air could get entrained into this initial conveyor of moisture
resulting in a several hour period of lighter, less than 1 inch per hour snow.
This deepening and very intense and quite closed piece of upper air support
will ultimately win the day. Almost like a puppy on a leash, the aforementioned
jet stream feature will give our winter storm a yank and prevent it from
advancing too far to the northeast. In the end, a much more consolidated low
pressure center will explode near the small strip of New Hampshire coastline to
sub 980 mb. The associated precipitation shield or snow shield will likewise
intensify. Some of the higher resolution simulations in the last 12 hours have
really driven this point home. The snowfall intensities in the pre-dawn hours
are indicated to be almost historic and in some cases really hard to believe.
Take what is indicated and cut it in half and we could still see 2-3 inch an
hour snowfall rates for a period of about 3 hours right at or just before dawn
Friday. With that said, I am all in for our 15-30 inch storm total with the
snow tapering to flurries in the afternoon.
A couple of other things that should address some emails and
other FAQ’s.
1) I would not be surprised to see a minimal amount of sleet in
the overnight hours Friday. There is a small near freezing layer in the lower
troposphere that would only be an issue given very light precipitation. Once
our bombogenesis is underway early Friday morning, it is all heavy snow all the
time.
2) Snow consistency should stay of the powdery variety although
at least initially, it will be of the denser powdery variety. By Friday
morning, the snow should become more fluffy thanks to a more favorable dendrite
growth environment in the later hours of this storm. Temperatures will be in
the 20’s during most of this event but should stay far enough from 30 to
prevent too much in the way of wetness in the snow.
3) This is a big one and I might get in trouble for speculating
but what the heck. With any “bombogenesis” there will be wind, lots of wind.
Vermont will be no exception. Winds are expected to be very strong particularly
early Friday. As far as the Single Chair goes the wind holds are primarily
associated with a prevailing east wind. The wind will be ferocious, gusting to
50 at the summits but it will be well north of east in direction, primarily
north and then northwest later Friday. I am not making any promises and there
are probably guys on the mountain that no more than I do about it and if they
feel the need to chime in and scold me please do so.
We also have another weather system Friday that will
ultimately track slightly east of Cape Cod. It’s reinforcing area of upper air
support however should mean additional snows Saturday, several inches I think.
Lastly, this should be one of the best weekends at MRG in a
few years so please get out there and get some. That being said, stay safe on
the roads. The driving Friday morning, particularly early Friday morning, will
be awful with low visibility, blowing snow and drifting on the roads. Plan
around this if you can and please enjoy.
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