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Saturday, February 1, 2014

Can't complain, lots of snow and potential snow to talk about

Hard to complain with any part of the outlook as of early February 1st. Yeah our weekend system could have been more productive, but we should make out ok in spite of a low pressure center which is expected to track into Quebec (just as the Euro model predicted a few days ago). Model cross sections keep readings at or below freezing, and I mean just barely at or below freezing, throughout the event. This essentially means that we should see a burst of snow Saturday evening with a few inches falling in a short period of time. During the overnight hours, snow should taper off and Sunday should consist of clouds and some flurries or drizzle (depending on your elevation) with temperatures hovering in the middle 30's. The milder readings Sunday will mean that the 2-5 inches of snow that falls Saturday night turns pretty wet but the event clearly appears to be an overall net gain for the mountain.

Colder air filters back into Vermont Sunday night as high pressure builds across the state. A wave of low pressure will pass well south of the region spreading some snow and rain into Pennsylvania, New Jersey and perhaps southern New England but the mountain should stay high, dry, calm and relatively seasonable through all of Tuesday. Our midweek storm which is a moist but otherwise relatively garden variety low pressure center appears, as of early Saturday, to be "pure gold" as far as we're concerned. The expected track of this storm has shifted south and two of the three major medium range operational models have the system hugging the southern New England coastline Wednesday. This is terrific news not only for MRG but for the entire state because the results should be a widespread very healthy (probably not epic) snow event. The snow would begin early Wednesday morning, persist through much of the day and taper off some time in the evening. Accumulations will need to be fine tuned over time but look as of now to be in the 8-16 inch range. 

Temperatures will be chilly in the wake of the snow Wednesday but not intolerable. Thursday will be a little blustery with temperatures in the teens. Friday will be calm with better visibility but with similar temps to Thursday. The much discussed "activated" pattern appears to have another gift in the goody bag for the weekend of the 8th and 9th. We have yet to see much clarity on the personality of this potential storm but I would not be surprised to see something somewhat similar to the midweek storm. Low pressure should have another chance to gather moisture in the gulf and then head northeast. We just need another favorable track and we will be lined up for glory. I would just add before signing off that the timing for this appears to be Sunday Feb 9 although this could change. 

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