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Sunday, February 22, 2015

Cold for the upcoming week but only light snow

We are still expecting a patter change at the beginning of March, but until then, temperatures will remain cold. Unfortunately, it does not look especially snowy. This has been a epic fail for El Nino which, since December, has failed to invigorate the southern or subtropical branch of the jet stream. The southern branch will fail to make a contribution to the midweek weather system which now appears only to be a clipper-like disturbance. The snow will follow another round of bitterly cold temperatures early in the week. Barring a change snow will be on the lighter side and fall mainly Wednesday accumulating a few inches before temperatures turn chilly again later in the week.

The pattern change is as we discussed. Though it will noticeably less cold for the early part of March, I don't see a major thaw or a massive melt down eiter. At some point we will break the incredible streak of sub-freezing temperatures early in the month but it won't be a prolonged break. The new pattern should also include more in the way of storminess. A few Pacific-like storms should cross the country and bring the potential for precipitation. I tend to think this precipitation has a better chance of falling in the form of snow, in spite of the new pattern. We will spend more time discussing this potential in a subsequent update Tuesday.

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