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Saturday, February 14, 2015

Tueday's system is getting pushed south by cold onslaught

Snow from the latest coastal New England "humdinger" has begun across the mountains of Vermont. This vicious looking weather system has yet to draw on the warm, moist waters of the Atlantic Ocean but when it does so, it's "bombs away" once again. News cycles around New England are talking about this storm in a seemingly infinite loop so I am not sure how much I can add. The track of this storm however has gradually shifted farther north. Not a lot, but enough to bring moisture into the mountains of Vermont. Snow will on the light to moderate side and the heaviest precipitation will be confined to coastal sections of New England. The entire region will get wind and brutally cold temperatures. Most of the snow across MRG will fall late in the day Saturday and Saturday night. Most of Sunday will feature just flurries, temperatures near or below zero, and wind chills of 30 below and possibly near 50 below at the mountain summits. Total snow accumulations will probably fall in that familiar 5-10 category but the snow will be wind blown, very wind blown, so taking an accurate measurement is impossible.

Both the wind and cold will continue into Monday. Actual temps Monday will be generally between negative -10 and -20 along with wind chills similar to Sunday. We've been watching the Tuesday system all week and I've been under the assumption that the pattern would relax, just enough, to allow this thing to unleash some justice on us. Unfortunately it looks like my assumption was wrong. Can't count anything completely out in a year like this but the upcoming week looks now like a period simply overwhelmed by the ferocity of the polar jet. There is "clipper-type" energy that should approach for Tuesday night into Wednesday and this might draw some limited moisture from the original Tuesday/Wednesday system back into the region. Hopefully we can pull a rabbit out of the hat again but for now expectations should be for a lighter snowfall Tuesday night into Wednesday and light accumulations of 2-5 inches.

More cold is unleashed on the region late Wednesday into Thursday. Snow covered Vermont will have to endure another sub-zero day with wind chills of 20 to 40 below zero Thursday. The cold will continue into Friday although winds might relax just a bit. I thing the overall pattern, a big positive PNA, PDO induced pattern is capable of one big reload during the weekend of the 21st and 22nd. I think a storm will be one of the byproducts of this although models have been all over the  place on where this storm happens. New England is certainly one location that could see some results however. Another round of cold follows around the time of the 22 and 23rd.

Finally, there are some indications of some serious fundamental changes in the weather pattern. Coastal New England needs a break, but I would never wish one on MRG until late April if I had my way. It looks like a possible shift in the phases of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) will result in some big changes in the Pacific. The jet will tighten somewhat and the ridge will shift away from the western North America and focus itself more on the open waters of the vast Pacific Ocean. This should end the polar onslaught and open the door for more  of a variety pack of weather across New England toward the very end of February. Given the ice cover over the Great Lakes and the snow cover across New England, a 180 turn in the weather seems unlikely but we should notice a difference as we head into March. And we are heading toward March and we should notice the higher sun angle as well.

1 comment:

Jared Miller said...

So you're saying there's a chance!