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Saturday, December 19, 2015

More signs that we will move from bad to less bad

More evidence both yesterday and today that this abomination might be closer to an end. There is no indication of an abrupt turn to sustained below normal temperatures, no suggestion of a big snow and certainly no Christmas miracle to save the holiday. It certainly doesn't look quite as bad way out there on the horizon. Increasing amounts of arctic air will cover North America over the next week and although it will have a difficult time reaching Vermont, some eventually should, even before the new year. After the New Year, there are signs of some fundamental changes in the Pacific with a partial breakdown of the evil empire. We will still be contending with a mostly positive AO but the battlefield will be a bit more level.

There are a few changes in the short term but nothing of real consequence for powderhounds. Any weekend snow will again be faced with several intrusions of mild air over the next week. Some light rain accompanies the initial push of mild air Monday. This is followed by a much stronger push of warmer air Christmas eve which is also accompanied by light rain With the exception of some areas around Lake Superior, no one east of the Mississippi River get a white Christmas; instead, most of New England will see temperatures in the 50's and even 60's (in southern New England) on the 24th and only slight cooler on the 25th.

After Christmas the playing field looks like this. A sharp boundary of temperatures marked by a stationary front will establish itself from somwhere from Texas to the northeast. A ton of mild air will grip much of the eastern seaboard but arctic air will begin pressing against the large upper air east coast ridge. Some of it will reach New England by the 27th or 28th. There is an organized storm system that will eventually materialize by the 28th and again will try and push mild air northward. With the east coast ridge weakened and with some minimal cold air available, the situation looks at least somewhat more interesting if not a little promising. It's basically one model out of every 5 indicating any real snow but that's certainly an improvement.

Beyond the New Year it appears as if the large mid-latitude dome of death we have been calling the evil empire will get beaten down. No evidence yet of any blocking anywhere near the arctic so I would describe the situation as a soft turn toward what should be a less adverse situation. The biggest asset might be the partial development of a positive PNA that includes a ridge in western North America. 

1 comment:

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