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Thursday, December 10, 2015

Some winter chill and even a chance for some snow during the weekend of the 19th and 20th

Pretty much as bad as it gets over the course of the next week but having no snow to melt means no much to lose. Both big massive western systems fail to do us any favors. The first comes behind the massive push of warmth this weekend. Doesn't look like we get out of the 40's and 50's thanks to clouds, fog and probably some drizzle Sunday and Monday. Rain from the first system arrives Monday evening and clears out Tuesday with little to no cold push. 

We had held out a bit of hope on the 2nd system but that too is gonzo. Storm will ultimately follow a similar path as it's predecessor. Temperatures will be a little colder and the rainfall is not likely to be as heavy but frozen precipitation does not appear to be part of any equation through Thursday of next week. 

There is some good news in the form of what appears to be a 3 day interval of widespread cold weather which will begin late next week and persist through about the winter solstice. During this time frame, some terrain enhanced snowfall is likely. A close examination of the Euro Ensembles offers even more hope by hinting that more southern branch energy spins itself into a significant east coast storm. There was talk on social media from the weather weenie world about this yesterday and the ensemble run provided some support for this so it was worthy of a mention. That said, none of the other medium range model packages provide any agreement of this. The only thing we can say for sure is that some form of winter will be present for a few days between 12/18 and 12/21. 

Without any real support from the AO or EPO, which in spite of the chill down late next week, is not expected to occur. We should not expect the cold weather to sustain itself through the Christmas holiday. There remains pretty good support that the cold will lose it's grip on the east coast by the 22nd or 23rd of the month. Right now, it doesn't appear as if the warmth will resemble the intensity of what we are expecting over the next few days, it's nonetheless discouraging. 

To be perfectly blunt, I still expect some dramatic improvements but nothing material until 2016. 

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