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Wednesday, December 23, 2015

Some snow with next week's storm ? Maybe

More good news is visible through the rain drops and very warm air. The active weather pattern next week is still not associated with the best of weather patterns but we will have some arctic cold that will mix itself into the equation. Temperatures will gradually cool Christmas Day and into the 26th following an insanely warm Christmas Eve.  Two weather systems will then impact the region with the first bringing its precipitation Saturday evening and the second stronger system Tuesday evening.

Both systems were discussed in the last update. The first looks a touch warmer and appears to primarily be a rain event though a few spots could see some freezing rain. A respectable looking shot of arctic cold comes in the side door Sunday evening and make for a wintry but dry Monday. The high pressure center responsible for the chill appears stronger every day and will thus be able to attain a firmer grip on interior New England before the arrival of this aforementioned second storm Tuesday the 29th. A couple of days ago this looked like a sleet/ice event but each cycle of model runs seem to offer a better and better chance for snow. As of right now, the event appears to be sleet/snow event which would lay a nice foundation to build on going into 2016. The situation has and will continue to evolve over the next few days but the best chance for an all snow event is across extreme northern Vermont and into Quebec which of course includes the likes of Jay Peak.

A day or two of above normal temperatures in the wake of this 2nd system will precede the arrival of a new and improved weather pattern to begin the new year. I want to highlight the fact that although we expect some continued improvements, the pattern does not appear overwhelmingly cold. The AO will level out but I don't expect the index to get seriously negative and the absence of blocking in the jet stream in the polar regions will make the transport of seriously cold arctic chill difficult. The pattern will be anchored by a weakened Pacific Jet and a western North America ridge. Jet energy will undercut this ridge and I am hoping this will help brew up 1 or 2 big east coast events during the first 10 days of January.

3 comments:

Gore said...

Keep up the Snow dances, people!

Jared Miller said...

Skiing > Christmas Story Marathon ... lame.

Wheelchair said...

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Power Chair

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