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Thursday, January 21, 2016

Big Mid Atlantic blizzard does Vermont no favors so time to look beyond

What a storm for the Mid-Atlantic ! They missed out on a lot of the action since the famous "Snowmageddon" of 2010 and they never seem to mind. When the DMV area does get clobbered, such as what will happen on Friday night and Saturday, all hell breaks loose and their is a massive run on food, gas and other basic necessities. That's not how we roll in Vermont however which is why we deserve a storm such as this and they don't.

With the exception of the south shore of New England, most of the entire region will in fact miss this storm. New York city is right on the edge. The storm  closes off well underneath the relaxing polar jet and allows the powerful southern branch of the jet stream to simply push it out to sea before it make a real northward turn. Some might disagree with this assertion but if the El Nino was perhaps a little weaker, and the southern branch of the jet was a little weaker, we might have had a more fruitful outcome.  Still, we have done quite alright with the smaller systems and terrain enhancement and there is more of that to come.

Temperatures will have a chance to moderate Saturday thanks to a full day of sunshine. By Sunday, readings could reach the 30 degree mark. 30 degrees is about the warmest we will reach for the duration of the month fortunately. Unfortunately, the prospects for big snow are reduce but smaller amounts of powder remain in the cards. A decaying system from the southern Rockies will fail in its  attempts to grab any serious Gulf of Mexico moisture. What moisture it does have though will fall in the form of light snow Tuesday and Tuesday night. This storm is worth a few inches but not much more than that. A nice little jet buckling is beginning to show up on the some of the medium range models as of Friday. There will be a clipper associated with this undoubtedly and some snow should fall in advance of the last full weekend in January.

My thoughts on early February have improved somewhat. Yes, I still expect the EPO to make a sign switch allowing the evil empire to show its ugly face. That said, the arctic oscillation will remain negative and some ensembles suggest solidly so. The door will open for a rain event and a few above freezing days, but the chances of a December 2015 mild air onslaught are reduced in my view. In addition I think one could argue that a few big Rocky Mountain systems will track in our direction bringing lots of moisture with them. It should be a great pattern for the west and perhaps not such a bad one for New England.

3 comments:

nemmerel said...

Josh -- I can't bear to see any more news about this east coast storm that missed us. With the winter we've had I was counting on this one. Please tell us we have some good news, or at least make something up.

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