Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Thursday, January 7, 2016

Swing and a big miss this weekend but we get another good pitch to hit the following weekend

We still can expect 1-3 inches of snow very early Saturday but the much stronger storm that will ultimately develop out of this whole situation arrives Sunday. No change in the thinking here, this storm is not going to do us any favors and will eventually wipe away a large percentage of the limited snowpack on the mountain.  No point in spending too much time on this. The rain should arrive in one large chunk around noon on Sunday it will turn heavy for a time shortly after it commences. Temperatures will start out in the middle 30's Sunday but move into the low 40's by the evening. It's all very disheartening to say the least.

We should be able to move onward and upward from there however I am happy to say. Snow showers and snow flurries will arrive Monday along with sub-freezing temperatures. It then gets a bit more intriguing Tuesday as a potent impulse rotates around the large Hudson Bay polar vortex, grabbing a bit of moisture as it heads past the unfrozen Great Lakes. There are scenarios that involve an explosion of this storm off the coast resulting in some snow for coastal areas. I think we would actually prefer something less dramatic and a healthy 3-6 inches from the passing clipper system either late Tuesday or early Wednesday. Chilly arctic air, though not extreme, arrives behind the clipper along with more terrain enhanced snow showers. Another clipper could then spread additional snows Thursday.  So in spite of the weekend setback, Vermont should return to it's typical January wintry self right away.

Several operational models and more importantly a few ensemble runs have suggested a storm of great significance around the time of January 17th and 18th. This would be the following Sunday and Monday. The necessary ingredients should be on the table. More in the way of cold air to work with, energy in the southern branch of the jet stream and a jet stream poised for another amplification and potential phasing. This pattern, though not incredibly cold, will certainly deliver its share of chances for a big one. We strike out this weekend but it looks very much like another, even better chance follows next weekend.

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