Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Wednesday, January 27, 2016

Tough times next week perhaps but snow in the short term and a more favorable pattern starting February 4th.

I was holding out yesterday and early today, hoping for some better news regarding next week.  I don't really have any in that time frame, unfortunately, at least not today. The pattern should align itself more favorably starting around February 4th and a few dinky systems may provide a few powder hours over the next 3 days or so. An occasional bout of mild weather is a fairly routine part of a New England winter and it looks as though we will contend with it starting late on January 31 and persisting through February 3. It's not etched in stone just yet but we need some late inning heroics perhaps from Big Papi if you're a Sox fan or from Yoenis Cespedes if you're a Mets fan. Sorry Yankee fans, I am no mood to give A-Rod any love today but maybe Beltran who was an under appreciated Met in his days in Queens.

The weather map later tomorrow will have another juicy southern streamer near the Carolina coast but this one will advance well off shore Friday. The models teased us with this storm a few days ago but there was never a consensus for a big New England hit and it certainly won't happen. At the same time, a weaker clipper system will deliver some moisture to Vermont albeit in limited amounts on Friday. We should see snow develop during the morning and continue throughout the day. This is the good low density stuff and we could see several inches of it (3-7 inches) by late Friday evening.

As one system exits later Friday another weaker disturbance arrives with its small amount of moisture later Saturday. This looks like a weak area of advection/overrunning type snow but another few inches could fall late in the day Saturday into Saturday. Moisture looks best the farther north you go with the Saturday system.

The first above-freezing day follows for Sunday. This is in response to many of the upstream changes with the jet stream we've discussed but most directly a massive snow-producing Rocky Mountain system which plans to pummel much of Colorado with snow Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will creep above freezing Sunday but will struggle to fall Sunday night thanks to a mild flow of air and clouds from an advancing but relatively weak storm. Rain showers are possible later Monday from this but temperatures should remain in the 30's and melting will be fairly minimal.

The threat of tumultuous times rises thereafter. I was hoping this initial, relatively innocently looking Monday system could dig a little downstream of us and help push both colder and drier air back into the region Tuesday. Models continue to hint at that a bit but are struggling to advance the cold into New England in any real material way. A mostly unfrozen and relatively warm Great Lakes aggregate isn't helping us with this I might mention. The very strong Rocky Mountain system then advances into the plains on Tuesday and takes aim at the Great Lakes. The track of this system is not a good one and it doesn't appear to want to break apart at all. One big consolidated system in the northern Great Lakes will push mild air and potentially a lot of ice and rain into the region Wednesday. We can hope that the system simply occludes in the Great Lakes to a point that a coastal low takes over in the Gulf of Maine and thwarts the push of milder air. It's not a total lost cause yet but isn't looking good as of Wednesday afternoon.

The outlook does improve thereafter with a period of colder weather scheduled to begin around February 4th. There is a minimal amount of blocking in the Arctic which will keep the AO in check and although the jet stream in the Pacific moves from adverse to marginal, a ridge in the jet stream which will set up shop in western North America will help provide the pipeline for cold. The middle part of February looks like a competing forces situation as well but no glaring signs of another thaw at all.


Shaun O'Rourke said...

Love the blog and thanks for fighting the good fight this winter but Beltran was terrible with the mets!

Unknown said...

Thanks for all of your work amigo. Slow start but last year didn't really start hitting til February anyway! Plenty of time