Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Thursday, March 2, 2017

In spite of colder weather, outlook is devoid of significant snowfall for now

Temperatures are 40 degrees lower, snow squalls have dusted the mountainsides and gusty winds have wind chill readings Thursday below zero. That's all well and good but the mountain has been so ravaged by the excessive warmth, it will take another real good stretch of snow for us to extend our season significantly from this point. There are some improvements fundamentally in our weather pattern, but unfortunately, these improvements might not be enough given our current predicament.


I literally have hardly any good news to report over the next week days regarding our snow prospects. Every chance we have or had at receiving new snow looks diminished or even non-existent. It certainly resembles the many blog posts from the SCWB during last years abomination. Sugarcoating a crappy situation is not part of the Mad River Glen tradition so although I would prefer a more optimistic tone, it would be disingenuous to do so in regards to the weather through the middle of next week. Very frustrating.


It's unfortunate because we have some rather extreme early March chill headed in our direction. Readings will struggle to break 20 on the mountain Friday and a shortwave disturbance passing to our south will usher in temperatures that are even colder Friday night and Saturday. 1-2 inches of snow is likely Friday night into very early Saturday but the story for the most part will be the extreme chill including temperatures near -5 Saturday morning and only 5-10 above through much of the afternoon in spite of some sunshine.


The situation starts to take a sour turn on Sunday. The conventional wisdom that I tried to establish in the last update consisted of multiple pieces of the storminess in British Columbia attacking New England over the span of several days. The first small piece would reach the region late Sunday or early Monday resulting in a modest snowfall but models have decisively removed this from the weather picture and it would be unwise to not heed this consensus. A period of light snow is possible early Monday but it doesn't look like much; instead, a more consolidated system will move out into the northern plains and advance northeast well into Canada. In spite of the newly available cold, it's hard to make light of a storm which seems intent on moving straight toward the southern tip of the Hudson Bay. Unless we see some drastic changes, we will see another round of mild weather beginning Tuesday and rain Tuesday night or early Wednesday. What is especially frustrating is that the flatter, less intense and occluded storm would have at least presented the opportunity for terrain enhanced snowfall late in the week. Flush this opportunity straight down the toilet if aforementioned scenario plays out. Colder weather and snowfall is still part of the forecast picture Thursday and Friday, but significant amounts of snow look a lot less likely.


Ensembles have been battling it out over the longer range outlook for a few days but they seemed to have converged on a slightly more favorable scenario for later in the month. The Bering Sea block has been mentioned a few times as a driver of the cold and a key feature for March. Yes, it has effectively pushed cold air back into the mid-latitudes but because the feature was confined to the Bering Sea and did not extend its influence to include Alaska, it has also confined much of the cold and storminess to western North America yet again.

9 comments:

gbc said...

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

Joshua Fox said...

Yeah pretty much

gbc said...

But thanks for all the effort you put into this. It helps so many of us plan. Im planning suicide !

gbc said...

Or moving West !!

Brian said...

Thanks, Josh. I'm an avid follower of your forecasts/analysis and appreciate your combined optimism and realism. This weekend is truly depressing for many of us, but I'm grateful to have at least hit some decent days this winter. Still holding out hope for a late-March surprise, but it does seem increasingly unlikely as the days pass...

eda said...

Thanks for the news. Sweet or sour, it is always good to know the truth... Maybe next year winter will come back.

Andy said...

Well, I guess baseball season will start soon, so we we've got that going for us.

John DiModica said...

Grrr! How about we wage a serious campaign against climate change, using our mountain as the poster child for how the (potential) results of climate change can really suck? Show off (poor word choice, I know!) our shitty predicament (no skiing in March in Northern VT?!) - compared to what conditions should at least be (and maybe some of what its like when its really good here) - and we get sponsorship to help publicize it & we wage a serious campaign - and make stuff happen - taking action?!
Question: if this was ruining Colorado's ski season for a couple of years running, would people give a shit. Answer: Hell yeah, they would. Why should our reaction be any less vociferous than what it would be if "we" were the $B CO ski industry. It sucks that we're suffering the potential blows of climate change and we have to suffer for it, but maybe we could take one for the team here and make this an issue & seriously show people why it matters - to all people, whether you've a skier, a farmer, or a city dweller. Let's Go! Eric Friedman, you with me?

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