Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

April Fools snow, a colder outlook and other rantings

It's no April Fools joke though it would might make for a good one. A March that started with excessive 60-degree warmth will finish with snowfall. Above 3,000 feet, the snow consistency might even be more powdery than wet although this remains a close call. Since last we spoke, indications are that the storm in question will track closer to the Mason-Dixon line as opposed to the Delmarva Peninsula. This places Vermont in a decidedly better place for moisture which should arrive during the morning hours Friday. Temperatures will be in the marginal category throughout the duration of this storm and will likely hover above the freezing mark in the valley locations which include a chunk of the Rte 100 corridor and the Champlain Valley. The MRG base should see temperatures at or just below the freezing mark while readings at the summit will in the high 20's. The heaviest snow is indicated to fall during the evening hours Friday and although snowfall rates will lessen after midnight, the snow itself should continue into Saturday morning. Those looking for those first April tracks Saturday have the best chance at finding the high elevation powder, 8-12 inches of it in fact above the mid-station. Closer to the base, I would expect a 4-8 inch range and a considerably wetter snow consistency. Saturday's temps will likely cross the freezing threshold at the base and may approach that mark higher up the mountain so the powdery stuff could turn wetter as the day moves along.


The outlook beyond Saturday has shifted decisively to the colder side. Though we are not expecting weather conditions to be particularly anomalous, the outlook from a few days ago did suggest a period of warmer weather and even some rain during the middle of next week. Models have taken all  of that weather and pushed it south and with pretty good agreement. Weak Canadian high pressure will thus build across the region after the snow tapers off on Saturday and ensure that almost all of our overnight during the first 5 or so days of April are below freezing. Daytime temperatures, thanks to the rising April sun angle, are likely to reach the 40's Sunday, Monday and Tuesday. I might point out that there are indications of another notable east coast system that is now indicated impact areas south of Vermont Tuesday but this remains a week away and indications can change. Atmospheric conditions (at least at the tropospheric level) will be at their warmest during the middle of the week so I am fine with a "miss" on the aforementioned storm; in addition, there is plenty of intrigue for the end of the week when the set up is considerably better.


At jet stream level, there is some substantial ridging that is expected to develop late next week across Alaska and the Yukon territory of Canada. Underneath all of this, storminess will continue to cross the country and keep the weather across the United States very active from coast to coast. There's quite a bit of fun that can emerge in this type of set up across New England and the period surrounding April 6th and 7th is one that we should watch closely. A little spark from what's left of the polar jet and we could talking about another mammoth east coast system and more Vermont snow. Hey when the pattern produces, it produces, and though it might have been better served in late February, I'll take it anyway I can get it.


I'll finish with a rant directed at the proverbial toxic stink that has enveloped much of our elected US government and specifically the group that has over generously anointed themselves the "House Committee on Science, Space and Technology". These folks had a hearing on Wednesday, March 29th where the apparent plan was to hijack the overwhelmingly accepted consensus on climate science and make its defacto leader, Dr Michael Mann, look like a jackass. Dr Mann, agree with him or not, comes prepared and is generally ready for attacks from all directions and he got them from the assortment of climate science skeptics that the committee selectively invited. Dr Mann represented himself well and his arguments were well supported but I can't emphasize enough what a dog and pony show this turned into. Just imagine if a John Q Weather Forecasting Blogger such as myself examining forecast data, 97 percent of which indicated "partly cloudy", decided to spend 4 paragraphs talking about a 10-plus inches of snow that 3 percent of the forecast data is showing. I guarantee a few readers would fall in love with me for telling them what they wanted to hear, but ultimately the entire community would and should wish me to crawl under a rock and render me quite delusional. One of so-called skeptics, Dr Judith Curry waxed poetic about being persecuted for having a minority opinion. Really ? Playing the victim card while a group of political shills is hailing you as a hero because your telling them what they want to hear.  Roger Pielke Jr has been at odds with Dr Mann for years as to some of the byproducts of AGW but even he advised lawmakers to form policy before a 100 percent consensus was reached. As for Dr. Curry, her minority opinion should not persecuted, but an honest cross section of scientists represented should include the likes of her, Dr Pielke and 97 other scientists that accept the general consensus that human activity HAS had a material impact on our climate and has caused changes the likes of which we have never over such a short geological time scale; furthermore, if steps are not taken to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions, warming has the potential to have drastic consequences on human life several generations down the road. As for this generation, our legacy is decided now, I'd hate to think we would get remembered for what took place today. And with that, THINK SNOW !

27 comments:

Scott said...

Thanks Josh, for all you do.

gbc said...

Ditto. Really appreciate it as do many of my snow obsessed friends! THINK SNOW! -Gary

samia hussain said...

nice blog

Win Colwell said...

Thanks for all the wisdom, meteorological and political. Right on!

Zach Berger said...

Right on, thanks for everything!

Eliakim Littell said...

I would be surprised if this does not have an immediate and measurable impact on the United States'' ability to be a leader in the world. Sad that so many once looked to us for guidance toward a better future. Now we seem to have become a punch line.

eda said...

+1 on the last paragraph

jasssmith said...

Damn you're good.

Alexander Dube said...

Just want to thankyou for the great and informative blog and what is clearly a labor of love. Tip of the cap for another season of work, and if i ever run into you in a bar in this small state, you're drinking on me...but you have to listen to my ski stories.

CJM from CNJ said...

All science aside, all you have to do is casually observe the weather trends over the past few decades and it's evident that the planet is warming.

dan1 said...

Great blog josh but spare us the politics thanx.

Geo said...

Great blog Josh but spare us the science thanx

Eric said...

On the contrary, Geo this blog often needs more connecting the dots visa vie warming and its effect in climate, and how that plays out in our weather patterns. Josh has always erred on the side of caution to not blame the extreme, prolonoged warm weather on the changing climate.

David said...

Thanks for both the forecast AND the political insights!

Unknown said...

Look forward to playing in the snow on Saturday and thanks for being another voice of reason on climate change.

Elizabeth Palchak said...

Yes! I love this blog. It's my go-to. And I really appreciate you giving this work some context. Climate science is under attack and being informed is critical.

TP T said...

The EPA is not the answer. Since 1940's and before all this regulation and the 197o formation of the EPA, carbon emissions have steadily decreased because of human concern for pollution and health and business concerns for the economics of it. Period. We don't need redundant government agencies telling us what to do when economics drives good ecological practices. Economics is much more powerful than egoistic big government hacks. Additionally, all states have their own, more efficient and locally focused EPA agencies. The Federal EPA is a bloated, hackarama that is a totally redundant and unnecessary waste of money. This is not hearsay, look at the factual evidence, it's out there. Green house gas emission was decreasing at the same rate before the government idiots got involved. FACT. Just look at the charts. We have been fleec d and economically hurt productively for all the tax dollars they have wasted for no reason. We are reducing emissions as quickly as possible naturally. Even the hemlock society has removed locking yourself in a garage with your car running as a good way to commit suicide.
Most new emissions reductions has to happen locally in residences in the USA. The real problem otherwise is third world countries. Local enforcement is the solution.

Kevin Collins said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Kevin Collins said...

TP T, it must be a tough burden carrying the true "facts" in spite of overwhelming evidence to the contrary, kudos

Charlie Hohn said...

Geeenhouse emissions haven't been decreasing steadily at all, tpt. It sounds like you don't know the difference between greenhouse gases and particulates or other forms of pollution. I realize this is probably just a troll who found the site from a random search and possibly isn't even a human but rather a bot but in the unlikely event you are a real person please do more research because not only is what you posted not accurate it also just doesn't make sense.

Dan Schwendler said...

Josh,

Are you still feeling bullish about this week? It looks like the mon/tues event has turned into "R" but there may be something coming in later? Is today it? I think it's been a great year. Thanks for your help!!

Benedict Gomez said...

Blog talks about importance of facts.....then quickly repeats false "97% of scientists agree" narrative that has been debunked 1001 times.

Eric said...

Who debunked it Benedict? Please show your source; it's a fact https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/

Faux news and breitbart are not sources unless they back it with peer reviewed science, which of course they don't.

Zack Scura said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Zack Scura said...

Thanks Josh u the man! Why would anyone have anything negative to say on here? Unreal.

Sara said...

Hey, very interesting blog.

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