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Monday, March 27, 2017

Winter may have multiple encores planned over next 2-3 weeks the first which could arrive late Friday

My apologies for neglecting my blogging duties the last several days. In doing so I missed the nice burst of snow that the mountain received Friday which yielded a surprisingly good powder day according to the reports I got. 2 rounds of freezing rain have left MRG somewhat "encrusted" and we actually could use some warmer temps (or another 10 inches of pow) to loosen things up. Winter has been fighting rather admirably to maintain control over the weather in Vermont and by the looks of things, this should continue to be the case.

Temperatures as high as 40 on Tuesday could help soften part of the mountain though I can't promise much in the way of accompanying sunshine. We can expect some of the latter on Wednesday as a dry Canadian airmass assumes control of New England's weather picture.  The dry weather during the middle of the week is certainly a change relative to expectations a few days ago and the sunshine should be a welcome sight which will allow temperatures to again warm toward 40 after beginning the day in the 20's. The forecast picture continues to look on the active side however and after another dry and somewhat sunny start, clouds should advance into the region by late in the day Thursday in advance of our next and somewhat interesting looking storm system.

Over the last 48 hours or so, the data has begun aligning around the idea of what I would call a significant east coast weather system though certainly not historic. The dry and yet not especially cold Canadian airmass, the relative strength of the storm, and the track of the center of lowest pressure begs the question of whether we could actually pull out an early spring victory. All of the aforementioned variables are certainly aligned to make this possible but remain rather marginal at least as of now. The Canadian airmass only supports temperatures near the freezing mark and the track of the storm is indicated to be over the Delmarva which is south of what we consider to be ideal. Still, a significant elevation event which would include some significant high elevation powder should be included in the possibility spectrum along with a total miss. The timing of all this would be in the late Friday to Saturday time frame. In the wake of this potential storm should be more clouds late Saturday and Sunday and some potential snow showers. Temperatures should remain relatively close to the freezing mark through the upcoming weekend.

Dry weather should prevail for Monday and Tuesday of next week before another conglomeration of storminess of some variety impacts the weather in the period between April 4th-6th. This 3-day window looks to be the warmest (relative to normal) in the upcoming 2-week outlook and most of the precipitation should be of the rain variety. Ensembles indicate another potential loosening of the jet in the Pacific and some jet stream ridging over Alaska and the Yukon. The combination of these two features would lead to another round of winter during the period between April 6th and April 12th. So in summary, in no way would I be willing to declare winter finished in Vermont.


gbc said...

Josh any further thoughts for Friday/Sat?

Unknown said...

Think we will see skiing in May?

Daniel Reich said...

Why is MRG saying this is the final weekend of the season?

LV said...

Similarly, I'm seeing rumblings of a biggun rolling-in the follow weekend. I know 10day is a far window, but thoughts on that?

best dissertation writing service said...

If you ask me which season I like most, I will always say it is winter. Season of love and fun. What I like most about winter is ICE and Skiing

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