Christmas storm is set to deliver for Mad River Glen and surroundings. Say what you want about the freezing rain Saturday, not ideal, but it did manage to solidify the best December snowpack in over a decade. A healthy dose of snow now should yield some beautiful holiday skiing and mother nature is set to provide it. Snow should begin just before dawn and Vemonters, most of them, will be waking up to a steady if not heavy snowfall creating a classic white Christmas scene. I mean, I've become so accustomed to Xmas thaws I am not sure I can even call it "classic". As discussed, the storm represents the merging of a surface wave along a slow moving front well to the regions south and a advancing clipper system to our west. It will ultimately go "bomb's away" in the Gulf of Maine, but move quick enough to keep snowfall totals under 2 feet. Vermont should put up some good snowfall numbers regardless with a burst of heavy snow during the midday hours pushing totals to 8-16 inches by days end. MRG's late opening will allow half of that snow to have fall before getting skied on, so don't' get too punchy on egg nog cocktails and get yourself lined up before noon.
Lingering instability should keep flurries and snow showers around Monday night into Tuesday. It looks like a pretty good set up for additional lake/terrain induced snow especially north of MRG. The snow will become extra fluffy and total another 3-6 inches in this time frame but I would expect some bigger additional totals farther north. Once the unmodified arctic air seeps into the region from the north Tuesday night into Wednesday, the snow will shut off for the most part and it will simply be cold, very cold. Readings will hover in the single numbers Wednesday and struggle to get above zero Thursday. Thanks to the deep fresh snow cover, overnight readings will be at least 10 below and perhaps 15 below. Winds will diminish Friday and temperatures will modify slightly (single numbers).
The 29th and 30th of the month (Friday and Saturday) continue to look like a time frame where a significant east coast snow storm could take place. As we advance through time, it looks more and more like arctic cold from a rather intense polar vortex will simply overwhelm the pattern and keep most of the precipitation to our south. Still worth watching to say the least because the potential weather system still involves a dynamic clipper system that could at least produce some light snow. PV's are difficult however, they have the capability of really drying things out in northern New England so I don't want to discount that possibility.
The cold air will make one more big charge around the New Years holiday and keep the region well below normal through at least Tuesday Jan 2. There have been hints of another storm around New Years day associated with the big jet stream amplification but we should probably keep longshot odds on this one for now. The pattern will gradually relax after the 2nd and this should open the door for additional snow even if the concept of a "bigger storm" falls flat. After Jan 7, the tightened Jet in the pacific will likely force arctic cold into "retreat mode" but "retreat" is a loose term and yet needs to be quantified.
For now enjoy the Christmas storm
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2 comments:
Xmas storm #bust
I wonder what could have changed just at the last minute. The clipper seemed to be particularly clippy and maybe missed merging with the low by the coast, but I'm only speculating!
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