Pre-Xmas thaw looks brief and outlook for the holiday week appears colder

The season at MRG is officially underway as the snow continues to fly. More of the good stuff  is expected on Monday as mild air makes a significant push toward the region. Though it may commonplace in our circles to cast negative aspersions on a "mild push of air" it is often a very effective way to produce snow. I don't expect Monday's "overrunning" snow to produce epic powder, but 2 or 3 inches is likely along with temperatures in the teens and 20's. This mild air will make a brief interlude into the region on Tuesday. Temperatures will sneak above the freezing mark for a few hours at the base of the hill but will likely stay below freezing above 3000 feet or so. Elevations sensitive rain/snow showers should impact the region during the afternoon before colder air changes all precipitation to snow Tuesday night. By Wednesday, temperatures will be back in the 20's and snow showers should freshen the mountain with a few new inches.

The bigger and more important questions obviously involves the upcoming holiday weekend and beyond. We certainly have some concerns. Though we are unlikely to come out victorious in every one of what should be a few intriguing weather situations during the last 10 days of 2017, we could still actually do quite well and score at least one big snow before the new year. We have the excellent fundamentals mentioned in prior posts such as the loose Pacific Jet and ridge/block across the Alaskan peninsula and we are also dealing with the byproducts of what is now a rather stable La Nina. The pattern will amplify as it should as we approach the holiday weekend and arctic air will come cascading southward into the United States. This initial amplification will occur too far west however and allow a storm to cut up through the eastern Great Lakes around the time of December  22 and 23, a Friday and a Saturday. We should see some snow from this system intially and then some ice and then it looks more and more that a period of rain on Saturday along with above-freezing temperatures.

As this is happening a very strong arctic high pressure center will build across the western two thirds of the country and advance east. Some very cold air is likely to build across the area around the Christmas holiday but the ridge across the southeastern United States is expected to be persistent enough to keep the mild air close along with the a general area of storminess. It's a muddled weather picture and is likely to change but there are indications of a 2nd significant storm Chistmas Eve or Day. With colder air on the playing field, precipitation is more likely to stay frozen though nothing is set in stone.

Arctic air is then shown to overwhelm the pattern in the days following Christmas and the outlook thus appears colder on Tuesday and Wednesday. Can we generate another storm later in the week ? Absolutely. It typical La Nina fashion, the ridge across the southeast will encourage any storminess to track a bit closer to us than it would otherwise in such a pattern. Though models aren't showing any hard evidence of big snow around New Years weekend as of Sunday morning, one is certainly possible along with the continued presence of cold air.