Still wintry for at least a week but thaw is possible around Xmas

Arctic air controls the state and has helped to make for some beautiful wintry scenery and a few good ski days as well. Vermont in particular will in fact be one of the most wintry states in the country over the next several days. Opening day has been officially moved up a day to Friday December 15th. It will be a chilly start with temperatures just below zero degrees. Some early sunshine will help boost readings back into the teens but clouds should be on the increase ahead of a polar disturbance in the jet stream. This disturbance will spread some light snow into the the mountains Friday night and re enforce the arctic chill for the weekend. There are a few hours where atmospheric profiles (and wind direction) are very favorable for lake//terrain enhanced snow at MRG. This would occur right around opening on Saturday and would fall in addition to the light snow Friday night. I am going to take a stab and say 3-6 inches of snow by midday Saturday but forecasting the lake/terrain induced stuff is a challenge so that range is a rather soft one (though I would be quite surprised if we end up with less than two). Conditions should dry out late Saturday followed by a bluebird Sunday with readings climbing up near 20 in the afternoon after a sub-zero start.

There was some talk and some Iphone forecasts suggesting snow during the middle of next week. I think our best chance for a decent accumulation comes from the warm advection induced precipitation Monday. It doesn't look more than a few inches but it does look powdery. Tuesday looks like a day where some warm air could sneak into the region. Don't think rain is very likely but temperatures could certainly push past the freezing mark in the valleys and challenge that same mark on the lower mountain. After this "relaxation" in the pattern, colder air will retake control of the state and more terrain/lake induced snow is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Ok, now moving on to the Christmas weekend where tons of very tough questions need to be answered. Hemispherically speaking, there are going to be some encouraging fundamentals or teleconnnections anchoring the weather pattern, the biggest of which is a block over the Alaskan Peninsula. That said, the crest of this block is setting up a bit further west than we would like it. It will leave Vermont in a war zone of airmasses. Though we could win a battle or two and I fully expect we will, we could also lose one. The pattern amplifications during the current week and to some degree next week will favor Vermont ski country but these will shift westward by Christmas Eve. As a result I expect a series of storms to track right at the state. A reasonable expectations right now as that we get some snow and wintry weather from one and  rain and a thaw from another. Hard to pinpoint exact dates but the first such system should come within a day of Christmas Eve with another a few days after that. The situation is obviously fluid. I am not married to particular scenario and fully expect the outlook to shift around a bit.