January-like temperatures will keep it powdery through the weekend while next week storm is still in play but looks somewhat south of us

Half way through March of 2018, nearly 75 inches of snow has fallen across the high country surrounding the Mad River Valley. Just 15-16 days ago, one would have to climb to the summit quad at Mt Ellen just to see consistent snowcover (MRG was closed). It was a depressing state of affairs even as the pattern appeared to be improving dramatically. It was a season truly on the brink to borrow the title from the great John Feinstein book. Going into St Patrick's Day weekend, there is currently snow where there almost always isn't, cliffs that have disappeared, ice falls covered in pow and steeps and chutes that even a hack like me can navigate.

And the snow keeps falling. Flurries in the case of Friday and these will actually continue into Saturday though accumulations will be fairly minimal. As you probably have noticed, the forecast just keep getting colder. Though the snow has fallen at an amazing clip this month, temperatures are still above average ( for the month) and Friday marks the first day of substantially below normal temperatures. Saturday's readings will be colder still, hovering in the teens throughout the day with blustery northwest winds pushing the wind chill down below zero. It mostly sunny on Sunday but wintry with readings close to zero in the morning and near 20 in the afternoon. Monday looks like a repeat of Sunday.

And then on to the next storm, a sizable one, that will dump snow across the Rocky Mountains this weekend and churn  its way across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. With the colder changes in the forecast, the storm track has shifted to the south and there is good agreement  that the center of the storm will be somewhere between the Virginia Tidewater and Cape Hatteras by Tuesday evening. The setup with this event appears a bit different than our recent one. Though some blocking in the jet stream has defied some expectations and will persist through the weekend and into early next week, it is expected to subside during the middle of the week, allowing the storm to have an "escape hatch" as opposed to getting hung up in the Maritimes like its two predecessors. At least that's how it looks right now. It appears like we could grab a few inches from this even in the current setup but we'll likely need the storm to track further north than models currently have for another big snow producer. This is not a big ask, so lets just see how this all looks in another day or two.

Meanwhile, temperatures will gradually modify during the week but remain mostly below freezing on the mountain through the end of the week. The period beginning Sunday March 25th and ending sometime early in the following week appears to be the time frame where a good push of spring-like temperatures could reach the region. Something similar was shown for St Patrick's day weekend about 10 days ago and we can all see how well that worked out. In addition, the warm-up is not likely to last even if it were to happen, as the ensembles are showing a nice looking positive PNA structure in the jet stream by the 27th or 28th of March. This will promote another southward push of cold temperatures that would essentially take us to the end of the month.