Storm track shifts back to the east a bit but gradual snowfall will bring 1-2 feet for the period beginning Wednesday Night through early Sunday

Snow began across much of Vermont early Wednesday but the heavier stuff arrives Wednesday evening as moisture from a very respectable East Coast arrives. Model data gave us a somewhat cruel tease Tuesday by bringing the track of the surface storm closer to Boston and placing much of the Vermont high country into some of  the heaviest snow. Data from the European model held firm with the idea that the storm will curl around Cape Cod and ultimately park itself in the Canadian Maritimes for a few days starting Thursday. Not a bad scenario for most of Vermont ski country but we are nonetheless on the edge of some of the best synoptic snow Wednesday night and we are not going to see the thump snow that much of New Jersey, NW Connecticut and parts of Massachusetts will see. Expectations should thus be tempered just a bit. 

All that said, steady snow will replace the sporadic snow Wednesday evening and continue through the night and into Thursday morning. The heaviest snow will be southeast of Mad River Glen by almost 100 miles, but 5-10 inches of new snow should present itself to skiers at first tracks time Thursday. The best part of this event involves the continuation of snow, particularly over the high country, throughout the day Thursday and beyond. Though I don't expect the snow to be especially heavy, it will continue to accumulate very gradually and provide an additional 1-3 inches during the day and another 1-3 inches Thursday night.

As mentioned, the low pressure center and much of the upper level support for it, will park itself over the Canadian Maritimes and remain in that vicinity through the weekend. There are surface and upper level impulses that are indicated to pinwheel around this broad area of disorganized storminess. Without getting too bogged down in some of those details, we can expect off and on snow to continue through Friday and into much of the weekend. Whether its snowing and whether its snowing materially will depend on the timing of these aforementioned impulses, but there are indications of accumulating snow almost every period through early Sunday. There are also periods embedded within  that time frame where snow is not indicated to fall. So expect the occasional snowfall to continue with a couple inches by first tracks time Friday morning and a couple more Saturday morning. There's a good chance the concept of "partial refills" will continue all the way into Sunday. So, in spite of missing on the thunder-thump snow, slow and steady snowfall will for an excellent stretch where 1-2 feet can be expected between Wednesday night and Sunday morning.

To address some frequently asked questions, lets discuss wind and temperature just a little. Wind won't be an issue for the most part and though I can't speak for every lift in every location I would be surprised if there are major issues. Temperatures at MRG should remain rather steady in the upper 20's over the next several days thanks to the cloud cover and precipitation. Snow consistency should stay powdery over most of the mountain but across the valley locations, expect not only lesser accumulations but gloppier snow.

Moving along, we still have another potential storm to speculate about. This is a system that will gather significant amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture over the weekend but most indications have the bulk of this storm to our south early next week. All is not lost however with this storm or this set up. Blocking in the jet stream persists across the Labrador Sea and will not only help with the "partial refills" this weekend, but will also make it difficult for the storm to make a full escape early next week. Instead, it is likely to get sucked into the Canadian Maritimes like its predecessor allowing moisture to find its way into northern New England in varying scenarios. Temperatures won't be frigid but will likely be a shade below normal through the week meaning well below 32 degree nights and near 32 degree days. I might add that one should expect some changes to the specifics next week.

Temperatures are expected to modify somewhat close to or just after St Patrick's Day but the longer range ensembles have moved to weaken the jet in the Pacific and provide more support for colder weather generally thanks to a negative AO. Winter is likely going to continue through a good chunk of  the remainder of March and include another storm of significance between March 18th and 20th.