Upcoming storm stays south of Vermont/MRG but cold persists for another week

Thanks to the deep snow cover and an influx of arctic air, temperatures dropped below zero Sunday morning in some sections of the state and will likely do so again by Monday morning. It's post St Patrick's Day and winter prevails and will continue to do so through this upcoming week with temperatures remaining below average and mostly below freezing. In a way of thinking, winter will prevail a little too much this week as the storm track has shifted south and will help keep the next juicy weather system well south of Vermont.

By midday Monday, the storm in question will be crossing the lower Mississippi River Valley and gathering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as it does so. The weather across New England has been a lot colder than expected 10 days ago and that is a result of substantial amounts of polar jet energy that has taken up a position over eastern sections of North America. During other polar intrusions this winter and in winters past, we can recall how much this can suppress many storms and this is no exception (though in March, sometimes all bets are off). That said, we have established some pretty good agreement that our next potential big east coast system will stay south of the Virginia tidewater with its trailing upper level support confined to the southern Appalachian Mountains. The storm will take a more northward turn Wednesday get to within 150 miles or so of Cape Cod, but unlike its predecessors, there is no mechanism in this jet stream to hold this storm in the Canadian Maritimes long enough to allow moisture to reach Vermont. The forecast has thus gotten pretty dry and includes lots of sunshine actually with the exception of a period of cloudiness Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will modify only slowly and will remain below freezing on most of the mountain through Thursday.

The weekend of the 24th and 25th again looks colder and includes mostly below freezing temperatures thanks to an expected re enforcing of the east coast trough. Milder air will be gathering some steam across the middle of the country and will begin making a push northeastward as the weekend progresses. A series of weaker weather producers will likely divide the milder air from the cold gripping New England and may produce some snowfall as they pass though its a bit early to clearly define the timing. With mid-week storm passing to our south, the weekend is likely our next chance for snow generally speaking.

The mild air is expected to continue gathering strength by the 26th and is likely to make some inroads into Vermont for at least a day prior to March 28th as the Arctic Oscillation neutralizes. Winter is probably not done however as a building ridge in western North America and Alaska will probably allow for a major push of chill around the end of the month.