Pattern continues to look colder and increasingly favorable in longer range but next 5 days could certainly be better

It's a holiday week and we are trying to make the best out of 1-2 inches of snow and anxiously awaiting the return of more powdery conditions. Though this is one of those updates where I am afraid I might have to push the good news back just a bit, and from time to time I do have to do that, the outlook in the long range continues to look colder and snowier. In the short run however we still have one problematic weather system to get through Friday and right around the start of the new year which could deliver a bit of a mixed bag to the region. Hang tight though folks, winter will return.

Pretty close to a bluebird day on Thursday the 27th with temperatures remaining well below freezing but with winds about as calm as you can get on a winter day. The clouds and precipitation will arrive quickly on Friday however and its likely to arrive in the form of sleet and freezing rain just before daybreak. We aren't going to get any love from this storm track which appears poised to track north of the St Lawrence River Friday night. Additionally, there doesn't appear to be significant amounts of available moisture on Saturday when the colder air arrives. That said, the lingering cold on Friday will not get flushed out as easily as it did a week ago and most of the precipitation will fall with temperatures below or right near the freezing mark. We are likely to see temperatures surge into the 40's for a small window of time Friday night but conditions will turn sharply colder Saturday and we should see snow flurries accompany this colder change throughout the day. Sunday looks dry and chilly with temperatures ranging from near 5 in the morning to near 20 in the afternoon. The existing snow cover will have that "frozen hellscape" glisten yet again, a term that I fell in love with last year .

Something is brewing New Years Eve and Day but it involves another push of milder air. Models haven't entirely sorted this one out, but I think the Euro has the best handle on it as of Wednesday afternoon. Hopefully, the storm has a healthy overrunning induced front-side area of snow for us which is not exactly indicated right now but certainly possible in such a set up. Looking likely is some sleet and another period of ice. What doesn't appear likely is an extended thaw but temperatures could creep above freezing for a time on the afternoon of New Years Day. This is certainly a warmer change verses the last update when I had indicated that New Years Eve might mark the start of an extended stretch of below freezing temps.

I won't make such promises for this update but the ensembles continue to show a nice evolution to the upcoming pattern. The weakening jet in the Pacific is critical yes but what appears even more significant is the developing and rather beautiful looking positive PNA structure in the Yukon. This will bring some serious cold by January 6th and 7th and if we can keep the southern branch from going entirely dormant, we could see some serious East Coast action. Even before the arrival of the more intense arctic chill, there are hints of more storminess around January 3rd and 4th.