Rainy thaw still in line for Friday while holiday week appears to be a "hit and miss" situation

Winter has retreated over a large expanse of the eastern United States yet has maintained a somewhat tenuous grip on interior New England and much of Vermont over the past week. As of the 18th, much of interior New England has been the coldest, relative to normal, of any place in the country during the month of December. There are very special years when MRG can avoid serious thaws for 6-8 week stretches but even in those years, it typically doesn't happen in December and it certainly won't happen in 2018 in spite of the 80 inches so far this season. The mountain will bask in sunshine and great visibility Wednesday which will allow temperatures to rebound from a morning low of near 5 to an afternoon high not far from the freezing mark. Limited sunshine will continue into Thursday along with milder, above freezing afternoon temperatures.

Can we contain this late-week abomination ? Can we prevent a disastrous melt-off and the utter exasperation we all felt after losing all of our snow on January 12th last season. That was a crippling event that we would certainly rather avoid going into Christmas. I can honestly say that it looks rather bad, but perhaps only half as bad as January 12th, if we are to use that as a reference point. Clouds will blanket the region Thursday night and rain will begin at around daybreak Friday with temperatures in the lower to middle 30's. Yes, there could be some freezing rain in a few spots early but temperatures will warm into the 40's from Mt Snow northward to Jay Peak (it won't matter with this storm). Keeping temperatures in the low 40's would be critical however to containing the melt-off and we can do this if the storm occludes and effectively pinches off the northern edge of the warm sector. This will also help mitigate the wind which when combined with above-freezing dewpoints can eat up snow cover faster than Mookie Betts can run the bases. I don't think we can avoid a period of pretty heavy rain, which is predicted to fall during the midday hours Friday. By Saturday, the rain will be lighter and some colder air aloft will help change this rain to a bit of snow at the highest elevations, but I woudn't expect to see any snow until very late in the afternoon.

Colder air will, very gradually work its way back into Vermont and snow showers, which will begin late Saturday up high, will overspread the entire valley and is likely to drop a few inches of snow on the mountains by Sunday. There is some dissension among the various computer simulations as to the available moisture Sunday so we will need another day or two to clarify that and the potential for accumulating snow beyond Saturday night. Snow showers or flurries could continue into Christmas Eve but it appears as if drier weather will prevail as the day continues to progress. Christmas Day appears appears dry and seasonable with at least some limited sunshine.

Milder air will try make another push at the region late in the holiday week (between the 27th and 29th), but before that happens there is the potential to sneak in a snow event. There are indications that a wave of low pressure could advance out ahead of a bigger storm in the eastern Rocky Mountain region. This would open the door for some accumulating snow either on the 26th or 27th. What we would hope to avoid is a massive, consolidated storm advancing out of the Rocky Mountains late next week. Such a storm might end up delivering another significant thaw to the region but that is not what is currently indicated and although it's early in the speculation phase of the forecast game, it does appear as if there is more cold air to work with next week in spite of the less than ideal weather pattern. So it's worth remaining optimistic for now and expecting a mitigated round of milder temperatures in that period between the 27th and 29th which may include some snow and some mixed precipitation as well.

Looking beyond, there are continued signs that the intensity of the jet in the Pacific will weaken ever so gradually. That said, the pattern is not indicated to reverse into arctic mode but rather neutralize into no particular mode at all. There aren't indications of high latitude blocking or any mechanism that might deliver a widespread outbreak of arctic air to the region yet I've seen some press in recent days predicting such for January. In truth, January is not a great time for us to get the onslaught of polar air since it typically suppresses the action well to our south and thus a neutral pattern might end up being the the most productive, especially if we can effectively combine a few moist southern streamers with some limited arctic cold.