Though the pattern appears far from ideal in the 10 days leading up to Xmas, we may find a way through most of it

It has a mid-winter feel to it across Vermont thanks to the recent outbreak of colder temperatures, a little bit of new snow and plenty of existing snow from previous storms. We all know how totally erratic early December can be and to be perfectly frank, it usually sucks. December is now 4-6 degrees below average thanks to the weekend cold spell and the skiing remains incredibly good given the early date so we have no right to complain. Additionally we have some good news. Though the pattern leaves a few things to be desired  in the 10 days leading up to Christmas,  we may be able to find a way through most of it. Furthermore, gazing way out beyond the Christmas holiday, there are signs of some improvement and the possibility of infusing more cold into the mix as we approach the New Years holiday.

On twitter, I had teased about the possibility of some mid-week snow. This situation is real thanks to the fact that New England will be about the only location encompassed by cold this week and is at the clashing point between this existing cold and the advancing mild air building across the middle part of North America. A clipper system would be the catalyst for snow but this system appears very devoid of moisture. Still, we get a pretty good wind direction Tuesday night and early Wednesday so we might be able to squeeze out a 1-3 inch refresher. Most of this week however will simply remain chilly thanks to that northwest flow in the jet stream. This will mean low temperatures in the single numbers and teens and high temperatures in the 20's. We can also expect some intervals of sunshine through Thursday and more clouds by Friday.

Speaking of Friday, it continues to look like the beginning of a more adverse stretch of weather conditions. That said, it continues to trend in the "not that bad" direction. This is an example of some of the positive aspects of an El Nino. In this case, the southern branch of the jet stream appears powerful enough to potentially push this storm through to the Atlantic Coast rather than allowing the system to make a northward turn toward the Great Lakes and central Quebec. It also helps to have all that early season November cold effectively chill the Great Lakes aggregate down and this lessens some of that thermal gravity which can also pull storms in that aforementioned unfavorable direction. In spite of all this, temperatures are still expected to moderate toward the freezing mark by late Friday or early Saturday and it remains possible to see a bit of freezing rain or rain but it's also quite possible that we get through the entire weekend without much of any precipitation. Given the circumstances one would have to consider this a massive victory.

The above average temperatures which will commence in this Friday/Saturday time frame will continue through Sunday and into the upcoming week in the days approaching the Christmas holiday. Though it doesn't appear to be a blowtorch, temperatures will get above freezing multiple times and it's likely that we see some additional rainfall. The strength of the Pacific Jet and some of the adverse MJO phases that are contributing to this strength will peak in the current week and slowly subside as we move into next week. In the days just prior to Xmas the pattern appears neutral and it even appears possible, as mentioned, that we can introduce some arctic air back into the mix.