Holiday to week to start out mild, but Xmas could finish with some snow followed by seasonable winter chill

The base is still thin but at least it looks like winter across the MRV this week. Snowfall totals could have been better and I have more or less settled on the idea that this won't be a December to remember. That said, I've seen worse.

Blue sky and terrific visibility is on the way for Saturday skiing or other outdoor adventures. And yes, its nice to get one of those days on the shortest day of the year. Temperatures should top out somewhere in the 20's after starting the day near 5. Not a bad day overall considering the minimal amount of wind. Most of the clouds and moisture associated with a warm front will pass north of the VT/Canadian border Saturday night. Though we could see some flurries, I would not expect much of an accumulation. Sunday will follow with more clouds and a bit more of a breeze but with milder temperatures of up near the freezing on the mountain and above freezing in low lying areas.

As promised, Christmas week will start out mild. That being said, the milder intrusion is short lived and is not expected to be accompanied by any rain and I thus give that a moral victory given east coast climatology. Temperatures are expected to be in the low 40's Monday afternoon but will fall back into the 30's Christmas Eve and back below freezing Christmas Day.

Not much of a chance for new snow on Monday and Tuesday obviously but a scenario does exist late on Xmas day into the 26th for something. I would still consider it a long shot given the limited amount of available moisture, but a stronger push of Canadian air is expected to advance into New England behind a weak wave of low pressure expected to pass just to our south. Aligning the track of this feature with the aforementioned limited area of moisture is a tough ask but not an impossible one. My fair value assessment has a roughly 40 percent chance for a few inches late Christmas Day into the 26th. A modest chance but not yet probable. Temperatures should end the holiday week at seasonable levels which is below freezing. Any clouds should also dissipate by later Thursday, setting the stage for a dry and somewhat sunshiney finish to the holiday week.

There has been a lot of dissension in the longer range outlook. I haven't been especially excited from the standpoint of cold, though the American Ensemble guidance has occasionally suggested we might move toward a cold pattern. On the whole however, the long range Arctic Oscillation outlook appears to be positive indicating a mostly "unblocked" high latitude jet stream. The outlook in the Pacific also suggests an even stronger jet in the Pacific which will further limit any southward advance of extreme arctic chill. It all seems pessimistic but we are entering the time of the year where it's not necessarily such a good thing to get overwhelmed with arctic air. By simply avoiding an all-out torch, it might be possible to garner a few intriguing weather situations out of this upcoming pattern. The subtropical or southern branch of the jet stream appears formidable and multiple simulations seem to suggest the possibility of a big east coast storm sometime during the first few days of 2020. Another 1-2 days of milder weather is also possible in this pattern. Though this appears most likely just before the New Years 2020 this is not etched in stone and models going out that far have shown varying scenarios.