New Years system to produce ! Some basebuilding stuff at least and likely a bit more from snow showers

Temperatures are mild across the state of Vermont as of early Saturday but the news is good with the upcoming winter storm. And yes, I am happy to report we can call it a "winter storm". The weekend weather will not at all be impacted by the upcoming weather system. As noted, Saturday will be mild and feature some sunshine with temperatures up around 40. Sunday will also feature a bit of sun in the morning but more clouds in the afternoon and it won't be quite as mild with temperatures hovering around the freezing mark across much of the northern Vermont high country.

The upcoming storm remains a forecasting challenge but the outlook continues to move toward a colder system overall; enough that, rain should no longer be any part of any forecast vocabulary, at least from the MRV on northward. That said, precipitation type remains a question at times and may depend on the precipitation intensity more than anything else. Such precipitation will arrive within a few hours of midnight Sunday night and thanks to a healthy push of dry Canadian cold weather, temperatures at the surface should be at or below freezing. Above the surface to about 9,000 feet, temperatures appear to be marginal in the period between midnight Monday and noon Monday. Given that, a mix of snow and sleet appears to be the most likely outcome with more snow falling when precipitation is heaviest and more sleet when it's lighter.

The storm as a whole will undergo quite a metamorphosis, making news as a full-blown blizzard over parts of Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas before weakening as it makes its eastern seaboard approach. It will be a slow process, but ultimately, another low pressure system is expected to take shape by Monday evening and gradually move northeast along the New England coast Monday night into New Years eve. We have to consider ourselves quite fortunate if this is indeed the evolution, because this 2nd system will thwart any intrusion of mild air and might even deliver a period of decent snowfall to the region Monday night following what might be a break in the action Monday afternoon (when it should just remain cloudy with temperatures near 30). The initial weakening storm has a large pool of instability that is eventually expected to deliver an extended period where snow showers or light snow can be expected. This period should begin sometime on New Years Eve and extend New Years Day.

At this point, I think its reasonable to expect 2-5 inches of a dense snow/sleet conglomeration early Monday and an additional 4-8 inches of fluffier, elevation sensitive snow New Years Eve and New Years Day. There is more upside potential with the developing coastal system as well. Though not a current part of our expectations, were we to get some of that snow, totals for the storm could approach a foot.

We still are not expecting an arctic cold in the wake of this storm. Temperatures will remain above normal in spite of the snow showers New Years Day and more sunshine will boost readings up toward the freezing mark on the 2nd. More subtropical moisture associated with a disorganized area of storminess will approach Friday and will likely bring some type of precipitation back to the region. Without much in the way of arctic cold to work with, our best hope is that this storminess stays disorganized and thus we might avoid a more assertive push of mild weather.

I still can't speak too highly of the pattern for the first half of Jan 2020, but we can still expect a temporary stretch of cold weather between Sunday the 5th and Wednesday the 8th of Jan. Hopefully there is some room in that window for another snow producing system.