With Saturday's washout all but guaranteed, we can start focus on a better, colder looking next week

Best news I have relates to next week, when at the very least, it appears more likely that we immerse ourselves in a more extended stretch of sub-freezing temperatures. We can also continue to hope for some new snow in the Tuesday-Wednesday and perhaps beyond that as well. In the meantime, we have Saturday's event to get through. This, like the last event has more than likely become another sunk cost in a sunk week of weather. It is a strong area of low pressure, which will originate near the Gulf Coast and eventually track very close to if not over the state of Vermont. I remain convinced that a similar event a bit later in the season would provide way more intrigue but this storm will suck too much marine Atlantic Ocean warmth into interior New England and the lower troposphere will simply be too warm regardless of elevation. The MRV could receive a bit of light snow or mixed precipitation Friday evening with temperatures near the freezing mark but temperatures are expected to rise Friday night and remain in the middle or upper 30's throughout much of the day Saturday when steadier and sometimes heavier rain is falling. The rain should be done with by late Friday evening and an infusion of colder and a pool of instability aloft will allow for occasional snow across the high country early Sunday. Mad River Glen can expect a few inches from this but the near westerly winds favor better snows in the far northern Green Mountains.

Indeed, the view of next week is at least more satisfactory. It does start with temperatures which should stay below the freezing mark beginning Sunday night and persisting through Sunday, December 22. That's at least 7 days if you are keeping score at home. The snowfall outlook is starting to look more promising as well. Models are converging on idea of a southern branch storm gathering some moisture this upcoming Sunday and Monday and proceeding northeast toward the southern New England coastline. The storm lacks that one dynamic polar kick and may thus pass as a flat wave but will nonetheless have some moisture and should result in a modest 5-10 inch much needed snowfall.

I am actually more encouraged with how the outlook appears to be evolving later in the week. Though we are contending with a strengthening polar jet (as predicted) in this time frame, the longer range models have actually done a poor job at high latitudes. To put it in familiar words, rumors of the negative AO's demise have been greatly exaggerated. One of the more glaring results of this forecast "miss" has been the persistent intense cold over north-central Canada this week and continuing into next week. It has allowed the recent slow advance of ice in the Hudson Bay and Northwest Passages to become a fast advance and in the case of the Hudson Bay, should allow for a complete freeze-over in the next few days. All of this said, jet stream in the Pacific is still strengthy and is likely to prevent any of the aforementioned cold to make a full-scale mid-latitude intrusion but Vermont is far enough north I think to feel a bit of its impact. What I really like is the impact that the polar jet might have on Vermont's snowfall outlook later next week given its closer proximity. So in addition to what we hope will be some modest snow in the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame, we should see some additional snowfall later in the week and into the weekend from at least one clipper-like system.

Heading toward Christmas, the 3 ensemble packages continue to yield mixed messages. None indicate extreme cold but only the European is maintaining the positive PDO, intense Pacific jet stream. There is agreement on an active pattern with cold and storminess focused on the west but again, there is no strong indication of El Torchy conditions in the east. Temperatures look just slightly above normal and the pattern should remain active with at least one storm to talk about Christmas week (Dec 23-27). Weather twitter has been discussing the GFS ensembles today at length. They do show an enhancement of high latitude blocking after Christmas which could set the stage for a colder pattern in January but such a pattern continues to be beyond the foreseeable horizon for now and is certainly not supported by our other favorite simulators.