More sunshine expected to accompany the spring-like temps this week with colder weather still expected for the weekend and beyond

 The first week of March 2021 has been both cold and windy and we certainly deserved more natural snow but it wasn't meant to be. We finally got the wind to abate on Sunday and the cold temperatures will begin to relent for Monday with readings pushing toward the 30 degree mark. With sunshine dominating the first two thirds of Monday, it will certainly feel like a warmer day. Sunshine will in fact be a big part of a very spring-like week in Vermont and has improved the near term part of our outlook even as colder more wintry weather continues to look like it will prevail from March 13th onward. 

 The clouds late in the day Monday, Monday night and into early Tuesday are associated with the milder push of temperatures. Some snow is expected to fall out of those clouds very late Monday evening/night, but this will yield only a minimal accumulation. Though my iphone is suggesting a full day of clouds on Tuesday (or is at least implying that), I do think those clouds give way to sunshine by midday setting up an outstanding afternoon with readings pushing toward the 40-degree mark. Wednesday then continues to look fantastic but with near 20-degree temperatures in the morning and minimal wind, it will take a few hours before we can soften the snow with the near 50 degree temperatures and 55-60 degree readings in some valley locations. The outlook for Thursday as also improved with the threat of rain greatly reduced and more sunshine expected. Thursday continues to look windier than Wednesday but this very mild wind will push temperatures well into the 50's, even on the mountain with readings touching 60 in some valley areas. Even early Friday looks very mild and it follows a warm overnight where temperatures remain above the 40-degree mark. Clouds and a period of rain might dampen part of Friday and the front responsible will officially end the Spring tease and colder wintry temps will return for Friday night into Saturday. 

Unfortunately the colder weekend temps will firm up conditions and will do so without much accompanying new snowfall. The sunshine will be nice, and we should at least a day of that this weekend but it would have been nicer with a 6-plus inch snowfall. The cold weather this weekend will be reinforced either Sunday or Sunday night and this 2nd blast, though temporary, appears to pack quite a punch (since it is the direct assault from northern Canada). We could see a decent round of snow showers and snow squalls on Sunday before readings plummet back toward into the single digits Sunday night. The temporary but intense nature of the cold blast this weekend is a nice illustration of a pattern that is largely the opposite of what we have seen much of this winter. The MJO appears headed for Phase 1, something we haven't seen for months and not at all this winter indicating a much looser and cooperative Pacific jet stream and both the Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation are expected to remain positive. More specifically, the persistent blocking we saw this year in the Hudson Strait and Labrador Sea (especially early this winter) is going to be replaced by cold and unsettled weather and the cold in eastern Canada is likely to remain there for the better part of the rest of March. I expect this to have a periodic impact on Vermont starting with the cold this weekend.

As for the snow, I don't think we see too much this weekend and accumulations will be confined to whatever we see from snow showers Sunday .There have been a few suggestions of a snowfall producing system in the middle of next week (around the time of St Patrick's Day) and this won't be our last chance. I also should point that although the outlook appears more winter-like after March 13th and will include a few decent shots of cold weather, mild spring-like weather will also make the occasional intrusion for a day here and a day there.