Potential snow event early next week belly flops but at least we get some much needed rain

The weather this month is proving yet again that March is the time for the widest variety of weather conditions. It feels as if it's been pretty mild especially considering the glaring lack of snowfall or any kind of "fall" but temperatures are still just a touch below average thanks to 2 days where readings failed to break the 15 degree mark. So March 2021 will likely turn out relatively close to average including the aforementioned bitterly cold mid-winter type days and a day (Thursday, March 25th) where readings approached 70. May of last year continues to fascinate me and why not. We saw a day, May 9th, where temperatures remained sub-freezing across the northern Vermont high country and we also saw 90 degrees 18 days later in the MRV. May of 2020 is also likely to go down as a snowier month at MRG than this month with the potential storm early next week looking more like a belly flop, SMH. Though I would certainly hesitate to call this winter season a bad one, I will always remember it as a giant "what could have been". 

As mentioned we have also been exceptionally dry this month and we manage to miss out on more rainfall late Wednesday leaving many places with less than a quarter of an inch for the month. I know this is a concern for many outside of our skiing and recreational life as we enter the growing season. Fortunately, the month, for all its lackluster performance on snowfall, will finish on the wetter side with two decent rainfall events. The first tomorrow, stems from the powerful severe weather producing system in the southeast. As a weather enthusiast in college, I found the tornado outbreak of 1974 known as the "Super outbreak" to be utterly fascinating and this setup has many similarities. Being that we will remain in the warm air tomorrow, we could also see thunderstorms on Friday though models suggest much of our rainfall (0.25-0.50) comes from lighter rain as cooler temperatures begin to ooze southward Friday evening. 

Saturday appears to be a very ho hum late March day. Temperatures will get cold enough to firm things up across the highest elevations but temperatures should remain generally above freezing below 2500 feet as clouds give way to limited amounts of sunshine. More cloudiness is then expected for Sunday as the main weather producing storm in this outlook gathers strength. This had the potential to be a snow producer but the pattern will simply not allow this storm to phase along the coast where it would need to. Instead, an elongated area of low pressure will consolidate over interior New England and temperatures will simply not be cold enough to support snow, even across the highest elevations. We should, however, see a decent amount of rainfall, as much an an inch late in the day Sunday into Sunday evening. Snow showers are then possible Monday morning but this is of little consolation. 

Any snow early Monday begins what will be a very typical and tumultuous week of temperature swings. Some cold weather Monday into early Tuesday gives way to milder weather late Tuesday into Wednesday. Ensembles have now converged on the idea that we get a rather impressive push of cold to start April (Thursday-Saturday April 1-3) but there are no indications of significant snow yet and the pattern does not support sustained cold. By April 4-5, another round of spring-like weather is likely to begin.