The skiing was beautiful early this past week, but as I watch Buffalo record its 36th consecutive hour of blizzard conditions I can't help but think that we have once again performed an epic reversion to our December mean. This point is underscored when looking at weather conditions for the next 7 days. The storm December 16th was beautiful and we had a few days to enjoy it, but then somehow managed to get ravaged by rain and widespread power outage producing winds while the strongest December arctic cold shot in years envelops much of the eastern two thirds of the country. We have a lot of water in that remaining quite encrusted snow pack but it is poised to get tested by a good round of El Torchy over the New Years holiday and an early January period that appears quite balmy.
Through Wednesday December 28th, conditions across interior New England continue to appear to be chilly. A "caboose" type disturbance in the polar jet is in fact going to impact Vermont with some clouds and light snow late Monday into early Tuesday and this snow is capable of producing a few inches though there are no indications of anything more than that. Clouds from the strong push of milder temperatures could again bring a period of snow to the MRV Wednesday but there are also indications that this could remain north of us allowing southwesterly flow to warm temperatures beyond the freezing mark. The 1-4 inches of snow Tuesday is the best mother nature is capable of in what appears to be a lousy upcoming period beginning on December 29th.
If you simply take a snapshot of the raw teleconnection indices over the next 2 weeks, they don't look all that terrible; in fact, they appear to be pretty neutral. This serves as good justification for suggesting that the excessively mild weather we appear clearly earmarked for won't persist through most of January. That said, the period around New Years just looks atrocious for winter weather lovers. The jet stream in the Pacific appears ready to get really angry for a time. After January 10th, this setup could produce a few decent storms, but for a time the pattern will simply align for excessive warmth in New England and much of eastern Canada while arctic air goes into a deep retreat to start 2023. Weather systems could bring a period of rain to Vermont in the New Year's holiday time frame, but there continues to be a lack of evidence suggesting heavy or widespread rain. The warmth is different story where temperatures are expected to exceed the freezing mark every day from December 29th through January 2nd with at least 2 of those days possibly seeing temperatures above 50 below 2000 feet. The above normal temperatures are expected to continue after January 3rd though there are indications of a jet stream that could potentially support snowfall producing storms after January 5th.
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