There's obviously a lot of weather out there and much to discuss with upcoming storm, a powerful cyclone that will prove to be challenging given its impact on one of the bigger travel days of the year. Across much of Vermont, wind is the primary concern. New England sees some of the worst storms in the country yet much of our electricity remains distributed through the vast network of above ground wires which are very vulnerable in a storm such as this one especially when older trees or tree limbs come down. Please keep that in mind during the day tomorrow whether your plans include travel or hunkering down at home.
Obviously this isn't the ideal storm for snow in northern Vermont given the track and the early amplification in the middle of the country. That said, model data has moved away from some of the worst outcomes and a sizable front-end thump is now expected beginning around midnight Friday. Some of the data out there is suggesting as much as 6 inches while more conservative indications (and better in my opinion) points toward 2-4. By daybreak Friday, temperatures will have inched above the freezing mark and precipitation will become rain. For a time the rainfall will be steady as opposed to heavy and I think most of the high winds gusts will remain above the surface and protected areas and valley locations. Summit locations won't be so lucky where winds could even reach hurricane force by the middle of the day Friday. The high wind and a 1-2 hour burst of heavy rain is likely during the midday or early afternoon period when, even in valley locations, gusts could reach 50 mph. Wind has a propensity to eat at snow along with rainfall so it is my hope that we can limit both forms of weather to a limited window. Temperatures will start Friday in the 30's, spike into the 40's briefly and then tumble back toward the freezing mark as it gets dark Friday evening with a period of snow likely between 5- 8 pm. Standing, slushy water certainly could freeze quickly and the snow is expected to be heavy enough to accumulate another 1-3 inches before conditions dry out later in the evening.
The incoming cold airmass is not expected to hit New England particularly hard compared to some other areas. Temperatures will stay confined to the teens Saturday after bottoming out in the single numbers in the morning. Winds will remain high enough to produce wind chills well below zero but actual temps should rebound back into the 20's both Sunday and Monday afternoons. Unfortunately, the southwest flow bringing the cold back to Vermont is also a relatively dry wind. Lake effect snow will hit the snowbelt regions but the snow shower activity should remain minimal through Monday and expect to see decent amounts of sunshine accompanying the wind through the weekend.
Fully expect the colder temps to persist through Wednesday 12/28, but the weather pattern is expected to take a bad turn later in the week and allow mild air to make a big push northward prior to New Years weekend. I've yet to see indications of any big rainfall but there are hints of temperatures that could reach or exceed 50 for a 2-day stretch. As of Thursday evening the current weather pattern doesn't even seem inclined to give us a goodbye kiss with a system capable of producing a few inches of snow as the pattern softens and arctic air retreats. This often happens in these type of situations and though it's worth watching, nothing is indicated for now late next week. I will reiterate that fundamentally speaking, the pattern doesn't look capable of supporting several weeks of this but the North American continent is expected to lose its arctic air which is typically a challenging obstacle for natural snow.
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