Hideous stretch of winter weather expected across interior New England for the start of 2023, but improvements are visible beginning around January 10

At the very least, it is good to see a lot terrain open not only at Mad River Glen, but throughout the northeast. We've had many Christmas periods with "practice slope only" situations at least at MRG so I am happy to see we've cleared that bar without too many problems. Unfortunately we have to face some irritating music over the next 10-14 days as arctic air is forced into a deep retreat. I can guarantee a lot of above-freezing temperatures through January 10th and not a lot of natural snow. I was hopeful that we could avoid excessive amounts of snow eating rain and wind but the rainfall part appears to be an increasing concern right at New Years. As lousy as this seems however, one can already see improvements way out on the horizon and the last 21 days of January should see much better results than the first 10.

High res model data is indicating just a bit of warm-advection or overrunning snow Wednesday morning. Enough for a 1-2 inch fluffing, most of this before the ski day begins. As the ski day winds down, we may see clouds give way to some blue sky and temperatures that approach the freezing mark. In comes the mild for Thursday with temps soaring above the freezing mark and into the 40's across many low lying areas. Clouds are likely to keep the wind lower and temperatures from getting too excessive. This also applies to Friday and Saturday though I am concerned breaks in the overcast will allow mild southwesterly breezes to mix the atmosphere and allow afternoon temperatures to approach 50 in some spots. Through Saturday, we can certainly confine any rainfall to the "light" and very "sporadic" category. On New Year's day, a Sunday this year, we are seeing more evidence of an organized storm system. This low pressure area is indicated to  track over Lake Ontario which is certainly not the worst kind of inland runner ever, but we will have entirely voided ourselves of cold weather by this point and a cold rain is about all that we can expect with much of it falling on the first day of 2023. 

Temperatures are expected to remain well above normal beyond New Year's day although readings will cool down, mostly during the overnights on January 2nd and 3rd. We then can expect another big surge of mild weather as the first full week of January progresses and likely some additional rain just before or during the weekend of January 7th and 8th. In total, 3 days of 50-plus temperatures are my best guess for this upcoming 12-day mild stretch.

As bad as this all seems however, the month does not appear to be a complete loss and the torch seems temporary. The Pacific is certainly angry for a time forcing the retreat of arctic air in North America but the EPO index never attains "evil empire" status and the storminess at the lower latitude regions in the Pacific will ultimately break down the ridging in eastern North America. Other teleconnection indices are also expected to improve with some soft indications of ridging in western North America as we approach my turning point date of January 10th. Even a few days prior to said date, every major teleconnection index turns mildly favorable but it's the PNA or some ridging in western North America that will be critical in allowing eastern Canada to finally get some winter and for New England to have better access to colder weather. Even as cold in western North America has been earning headlines and snow/wind has paralyzed Buffalo, eastern Canada has been very warm most of this month. Ice expansion in the Hudson Bay had a strong start November but has been crippled by continuous warmth in eastern Canada and this large body of water remains not entirely frozen as of Boxing Day. A frozen Hudson Bay does not have the impact of modifying arctic airmasses and is another reason why January and February are materially colder in Vermont than December.