Aside from a burst of winter weather late next week and a possible storm 1/13-1/14, the general weather pattern continues to appear mild

We seem to be enveloped in an extra seemingly permanent form of cloudiness that when added to the dismal weather pattern does not calculate to a very joyous mood.  We managed to get most of the upper part of the mountain back below the freezing mark as of Thursday afternoon but remain stripped of much of our natural snow and our in desperate need of a storm to jump start our engines. The short term outlook did not trend in the direction I wanted. A few days ago, we seemed well positioned to capitalize on a eastward moving jet impulse capable of producing a decent burst of snow; in fact, we seemed too well-positioned because I knew that the high res data would chime in and move the chess pieces around and ultimately indicate a lesser result for us. Sure enough, that's exactly what happened. I am going to hold out a little hope here but the best area of snow is expected to establish itself over NW Connecticut and the Berkshires very late Thursday night and proceed to eastern Mass and the NH seacoast Friday. The concentrated area of snow (and some rain for the coast) will actually rob us of our potential snow. Southern Vermont should score a few inches by midday Friday morning while northern Vermont is largely relegated to seeing snow showers Friday afternoon and Friday night. Maybe we can get an 1-2 across the high country out of this, but this appears to be a rather frustrating swing and miss overall. 

The current streak of cloudiness may give way to a few breaks of blue sky Saturday, but clouds flurries and light snow showers should dominate the weather picture for the first part of the weekend. Our sunny day finally arrives Sunday and it should feel pretty good with winds remaining in the relatively gentle category and temperatures up near 30 degrees. 

We have a bit more clarity on the weather picture for next week. Though remain locked in a very non arctic air producing pattern, some chilly Canadian air is making the Wednesday-Friday period look wintry. Before that, we should be able to squeeze another sunny day out of Monday and a somewhat mild day Tuesday with southwesterly winds bringing above-freezing temperatures back to Vermont temporarily during the afternoon.  The late week period does appear more interesting however with the arrival of chilly temperatures on Wednesday. The impulse responsible for bringing winter back to New England is also capable of producing a burst of snowfall Wednesday morning and then exploding off the coast as it combines with some old Pacific jet energy. Though we certainly need to keep an eye on that storm a little, ensembles have been showing some potential with the ensuing Pacific jet impulse and storm which appears more robust as it enters the plains than its predecessor. The area of Canadian cold will be well in place across New England as this storm approaches with temperatures on Thursday ranging from single digits for a low and low 20's for a high but for this to manifest into a significant snowstorm we will need the storm to track far enough to the north to bring us the moisture while at the same time not flush the limited supply of existing cold away. Both will remain a question for a few more days since we are over a week from this potential event. 

Ensembles have largely confirmed what appears to be an angrier looking Pacific Ocean toward the middle of the month. Much of the bitterly cold arctic air will remain stuck over the eastern Eurasian continent including Siberia, Mongolia and even the more populated areas of China, the Korean peninsula and Japan could eventually get in on this arctic outbreak. The angry Pacific though makes it very difficult for arctic air to move south in North  America in a material way. We had a small window to do this with a negative EP/AO beginning now and persisting through the end of next week, but that window gets slammed shut late next week and persisting through at least January 20th. Winter weather is possible but will have to come in the form of storminess from the Pacific with a limited supply of cold to our north. This is a big difference from last January when much of Canada was covered in cold all month. East coast snow lovers have a shot with the storm late next week but after that, if you live on or close to the coast, the weather pattern isn't friendly.