We finally managed to restore some respectability to the season and to January specifically with a stretch of below freezing temperatures that began late Saturday. We also got the long welcomed and anticpated bluebird day Sunday, and found some additional sunshine for Monday. We have more sunny days in store for the rest of this week ahead of the late week storm system that needs some discussion. In the meantime a weak jet disturbance is set to bring colder Canadian air into northern Vermont and interior New England for the middle of this week. This disturbance is also capable of bringing snow showers back to the northern mountains of Vermont for Monday night into early Tuesday before that aforementioned sun returns for later Tuesday. We have been stripped of most of our snow cover and snow showers overnight Monday won't totally save us, but we have the favorable northwest flow we often lack and both Sugarbush and Mad River Glen should score 2 to as much as 5 inches from this with lesser amounts in valley locations. Any snow should be followed by a continuation of more seasonable and sub-freezing temperatures along with that return to sunshine. Single digit temperatures are actually expected Wednesday morning followed by more sunshine during the day.
Clouds from the pre-MLK weekend east coast storm are expected to arrive as early as Wednesday night and I am hoping for some precipitation during the day Thursday because any of that will fall in the form of snowfall. Models have not been especially bullish on the front end thumping possibilities Thursday but they are indicating a few inches. More generally however, model data simulations have shifted the track of the initial storm northward and have placed it over the St Lawrence Valley early Friday morning. This is not so good and would guarantee a change from snow to ice and eventually a period of rain Friday morning. So how do we conjure up some MLK magic out of this you ask ? Well it's possible ! We've got 2 major computer model simulations suggesting that the St Lawrence Valley low pressure center will weaken and ultimately be consumed by a coastal area of low pressure expected to form near the Delmarva Peninsula. If this low bombs quickly enough and then proceeds to track over Cape Cod which is quite possible in this setup, another MLK fireworks celebration can occur and we won't need a lot Canadian cold air to do it. Rain would change to heavy snow early on Saturday and we would get a hearty accumulation. Easy to be a skeptic the way things have been going and it does require an aligning of a few different stars, but our MLK tinkerbell has worked for us many times and we have legitimate data suggesting such an outcome is possible.
Whatever we can procure from a snowfall standpoint in the Thursday through Saturday time frame, we will get it with very little help from any arctic air. With the EPO shifting back into positive territory, we are still facing a challenging setup next week with mild air expected to envelop an expansive area in eastern North America both in Canada and the United States. Perhaps we can find a way through all this for the simple reason that often times when ensembles suggest a certain outcome long enough, the weather will simply find a way to defy expectations, but needless to say it does not look especially wintry between the 17th -20th (Tuesday-Friday). The Sunday and Monday part of the MLK weekend do appear mostly sub-freezing with temps in the teens and 20's during the overnight and rising to the 20's Sunday and 30's Monday.
The jet stream in the Pacific is still expected to abate and allow the EPO to potentially turn negative again around the 21st and when combined with a slightly negative arctic oscillation, makes the outlook beyond January 21st to appear more favorable. We still lack a mechanism capable of transporting large amounts of arctic air southward quickly in the foreseeable future but a tamed Pacific combined with just a minimal amount of blocking in the arctic should allow at least some arctic air to ooze southward. The Hudson Bay has completed its freeze and is no longer acting as a roadblock for transporting arctic cold into Quebec which is certainly helpful.
1 comment:
Gimme a hit of that hopium.
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