Our first big springtime corn horn day is on time and on target for Tuesday. Early sunshine and blustery southwest winds will send readings soaring from sub-freezing levels in the very early morning to 50 degrees by 10 am. Even areas well up on the mountain should get impacted and could touch 50 degrees while areas near the base see temperatures up near 60. And just like that, it's over. Wednesday is back to sub-freezing cold with readings holding in the high 20's. Early Sunshine gives way to clouds and winds should remain quiet.
The increase in cloudiness on Wednesday does precede a bit of light overrunning snowfall. We aren't expecting much early Thursday, most of which (at least during the day) should remain cloudy with the snow amounting to less than 2 inches very early in the day. Temperatures are expected to sneak above freezing again on Thursday and then soar into the 40's Friday as southerly flow envelops most of New England.
This is simply not an exciting March pattern as of now. The jet stream in the Pacific has become very hostile and simply overwhelming parameters that might support coach, which there aren't too many of anyway. Arctic air has remained close enough this week to limit the corn horn weather to one day this week, but is expected to retreat thanks the storm discussed in the last update which is poised to track deep into Quebec this weekend. The storm does appear pretty stretched out by the time rainfall arrives in Vermont on Sunday. Before that happens, clouds should limit the visibility and the excessive temperatures. Despite that, we should still prepare for an extended stretch where readings exceed 40 degrees including the overnights when temperatures Friday and Saturday nights will not fall too much. Regarding the rain producing storm, there are hints that low pressure could help refocus the storm on the coast. Were this to be in the case, it would be nice if this would limit the rainfall across Vermont which would limit the melt-off and associated flood risk. Snowfall, if we get any out of this storm, would come during the day Monday as the storm is pulling away and colder temperatures finally work their way back into the state.
The March 17-21st period does not appear especially wintry or cold. There's another storm to contend with right around the time of the spring equinox which would be late in this period. Though we have a better chance at a improved storm trajectory, the supply of cold air appears limited. The last full week March appears a bit better as conditions in the Pacific become less hostile and some support emerges from both the PNA nad NAO indices.
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