Weather conditions to take a not so friendly roller coaster ride this week

The burst of March cold air came at us with one big uppercut and sometimes when that happens, the punch is wasted and weather conditions prove to be very changeable. Such is the case with this week which started with temperatures near -10 Monday morning and will undergo a roller coaster ride over the next few days. 

The bad outcome we expect with the upcoming storm is a result of bad timing and circumstances which result in what will be a cyclone that matures too early and tracks way too far north. I've seen many storms have a similar fate in the early winter months and certainly less in the later winter months though it certainly happens. Clear skies early Tuesday morning will allow temperatures to start in the single numbers but then quickly rise even as clouds increase throughout the day as southerly flow begins to establish itself over the region. The rain stays away Tuesday and Tuesday night though many areas will see above freezing temperatures Tuesday afternoon and not much of a drop off during the ensuing overnight. The rain arrives early Wednesday. Sections of the upper mountain have yet to see plain rain in 2025 and the streak will officially end with the wet weather on Wednesday.  Temperatures are expected to be in the upper 30's up high and 40's in the valley and just under an inch of rain is currently being indicated. Expect some flood concerns and some additional ice jam concerns on certain rivers and this is another excellent opportunity to point folks toward the National Weather Service as they are only organization equipped to provide detailed information in events such as this one. I might also add that my old friend Bob Hart, who teaches at Florida State, has provided free, illustrated model cross sections to the public domain and never asked for a dime. He like many of us has not been happy with the recent firings and has pulled the plug on his operation which has been up and running for 30 years. You can see his message here if you like Bob's Cool Weather Site .  Perhaps I've gotten too spoiled or old, but I've relied very heavily on this website during many weather situations here and it certainly hurts not having it. Anyway, if we can keep the rain at less than in inch, keep temperatures below 50 and can keep the wind down, the flooding won't be as severe as what we saw a few Decembers ago. I feel confident on the first  two conditions and less so about the third. At least in the exposed summits and high elevation areas, we should expect some high winds Wednesday night. 

Conditions should dry out Thursday in valley areas while lighter rain showers become snow showers across the high country. Temperatures will return to the freezing mark up high, but remain in the 40's below 1,500 feet. Accumulating is likely Thursday night into early Friday especially in the Stowe to Jay corridor and for us to a lesser extent. Subject to a later revision, I would expect 1-3 inches with most of it falling before the ski day Friday 

Temperatures are expected to return to more seasonable levels this upcoming weekend. The weather remains somewhat of a question and as much as I wish for one answer we are likely going to get another. The GFS hammers the northeast with a crippling snowstorm and almost everyone would get impacted and we would get a round of epic conditions before another run of mild weather. There is absolutely no support for such an outcome on the Euro Ensembles and likewise from the Canadian or its ensemble members. Given that, don't wishcast yourself toward a disappointment. The chances aren't zero, but not higher than 10 percent. 

The longer range outlook has trended somewhat cooler though I would be hesitant to call it cold. Before that, the period between March 11-14 continues to look very mild and could feature a multi-day stretch of spring-like weather before the cooler and somewhat stormier regime that I alluded to takes over. 

Another shout out to Sugarbush snow reporter Lucy Welch for speaking truth to power. I don't know her personally, but if she wants to write about snow on my blog she's welcome to do it.