Christmas outlook gets a massive boost today with snow expected pretty much every day this upcoming week and two significant accumulations!

The short term forecast, which, for the sake of this update, covers Christmas week up to 12/26 gets a really positive update today and certainly not an additional warming trend. We have some concerns in the days that follow the 27th, maybe an additional concern after the New Year's holiday but there's a lot of winter weather to talk about. When I think about this in the backdrop of what we've seen in recent Christmas holiday periods, this may be one of the snowiest outlooks I can remember in this period going back a while. 

The Merry Torchmas cards are certainly in play for a good chunk of the country. The middle and lower Mississippi Valley areas, Tennessee, Kentucky, all of the Deep South and even the Mid Atlantic will just roast with plenty of record high temperatures getting recorded on multiple days. Interestingly, even portions of the Great Lakes, which have experienced a very cold month so far, are expected to get mild and eventually wet Friday into Saturday. Interior New England is simply not going to take part in this song in dance, at least for a while. Arctic air on Monday will have a firm grip on the region and certainly us. Temperatures are generally expected to be sub 15 and the weather map would suggest a blue bird day, yet models don't agree and are suggesting clouds and even some light innocuous cold snow with minimal accumulation. Steadier snow is expected by mid morning Tuesday thanks to a decent looking clipper system. Though heavy snow isn't expected, northern Vermont, the Adirondacks and much of New Hampshire are positioned very well for an extended period of this light but steady snow which should persist through Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. The long duration of snowfall will help send us into the 5-10 inch inches of new snow category by midday Christmas Eve and we should be happy with the fluffier more powdery consistency. 

While warm air is pushing northeastward on Christmas Day, it's progress into northern New England will get thwarted. It's a benign looking jet stream impulse expected to bring more light snow to us on our Christmas Thursday. Though it's still expected to be the mildest day of the week, 30 degrees is a lot better than the 70 degree readings which will be occurring several hundred miles to our south. By Friday, a piece of modified arctic high pressure situated over eastern Canada, will push south and solidify what will be a very critical hold on the region as a stronger storm system approaches from the west. The temperature boundary, which will be intense by the 26th, will certainly help enhance the area of precipitation which will start falling as snow for us late Friday. There are some similarities to the setup here and what I remember as the powder fest that occurred in what I call the 18-1 week back in February 2008. The Giants ruined the Pats perfect season on that Sunday and it pretty much snowed for 3 consecutive days after that but the memory is getting a little fuzzy and the Giants do nothing but lose now. In this case, it appears we are set up for some good steady snow through early Saturday the 27th and as the weekend progresses we are fending off a push of milder air.  Some alterations will be needed in this forecast so expect that and anticipate some great powder for Saturday if we can keep this outlook in tact and possibly some mixed precipitation and even some above freezing temperatures by later Sunday. I might also add that models have yet to converge on this scenario so expect to see some forecasts reflecting this uncertainty and it may not agree with what i just wrote. I feel a bit more confident after successive runs of the European Ensemble have indicated this late Friday to early Saturday snow followed by the chance for a wintry mix Sunday. 

Near Year's week will at least feature a more wintry start with that potential wintry mix on Sunday turning back to a colder snow Monday. Expect blustery conditions with temperatures in the teens and then those readings will moderate as the week progresses. Models have moved away from targeting the New Year's holiday specifically for a storm, they have instead done that next weekend (the 27th and 28th), so it looks drier and a bit milder though not excessively so for now. Ensembles continue to try and push a very strong ridge in the middle of the continent northeastward toward us, but it's never indicated to get that strong or extend especially far to the north. Let's hope it stays that way. We aren't getting any help from the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which makes it tough for arctic air to attain any widespread U.S. coverage. Meanwhile, the Pacific has been cooperative to varying degrees and this has helped keep the chill alive especially in Canada. The Hudson Bay is about 3 weeks ahead of last year in terms of ice coverage and this makes it a bit easier for arctic air to pool over eastern Canada. Anyway, it's exciting stuff for most of the next week and a really nice Christmas period update so enjoy what I think is coming. 

Just enough cold returns for some snow on the 23rd and storm potential around the New Year's holiday

Rain and wind got us pretty good Friday morning. South winds can really rip through both the Mad River and Champlain Valleys. In the case of the latter, winds of over 40 mph helped to break the overcast, mix out any inversion and send temperature readings briefly into the middle 60's. You had about an hour to enjoy a lakeside cocktail before heavy wind driven rain and colder temperatures arrived from New York State. 

The overall outlook which covers both holidays has inched in a slightly warmer direction. Trends are important to identify, both good and bad, because if they continue over a significant span of time the forecast can ultimately be very different. In this case, Vermont still looks to be in good shape, so long as the trend we've seen in the models over the past 24-36  hours doesn't continue in the same warmer direction. 

Winter solstice weekend will be a dust on crust situation. Enough snow showers Friday night for an accumulation, but not enough for more than an inch or two. Saturday will feature a few flurries, diminished yet still gusty winds along with some intervals of sunshine .Temperatures on the mountain are likely to hold near 20 degrees. Very light snow is again possible Saturday night with little accumulation expected and this sets the stage for a blustery solstice with readings in the high 20's. 

Christmas week starts chilly with arctic air sending temperatures in to the teens. I can't promise a total bluebird kind of day though some sun appears likely. We may have enough low level instability to produce some snow showers Monday afternoon and it's worth mentioning since winds appear aligned in a favorable northwest direction for us. Snow is more likely on Tuesday, coming from a west to east moving clipper-like system. I expect a decent period of powdery snow from this and a preliminary guess would be 3-6 inches. Snow flurries will continue into Christmas Eve along with 20-30 degree temperatures followed by a generally cloudy Christmas with readings near but not really above the critical freezing threshold. 

I had to stare at many different model simulations a good long time to try and sort out some potential details worth sharing. Generally the story remains the same with a very warm ridge parked over the central United States trying to push that warmth northeastward. Interior New England continues to appear to be a good strategic place to hide from the warm air and retain a chance for some wintry weather. That said, a few days look more dicey. Warmth will attempt at making one push north on December 26h and this could push temperatures back above the freezing mark on that Friday. Cold appears poised to fight back control of the region for the ensuing weekend and some winter weather in the form of snowfall could accompany that. 

New Year's week has a very similar roster of players. More warmth in the central U.S.while cold fights to stay in control of the northeast. There's been several simulations showing storminess and I would guess we will be on the receiving end of at least one big weather producer. The very persistent and positive AO is a big reason for the southern latitude warmth. At the same time, the action in the Pacific continues to be more favorable farther north so I remain optimistic that we can finish 2025 with some excitement. 

 

Winter weather expected to return for Christmas week following the nearly inch of 40-45 degree rain early Friday

 For many spots on the mountain, Wednesday marks the end of a 19 day run of sub-freezing temperatures. It began after a Thanksgiving day rainfall and for a few spots close to summit locations, it will continue through late Thursday. Most of  this short term period, through Thursday evening is expected to stay dry. Folks may see a bit of wet snow Wednesday evening but little to no accumulation is expected. Breaks in the overcast are expected to time out just right to support temperatures dropping to near 20 for Thursday morning before sunshine and an increasing southerly breeze boost readings up into the 40's Thursday afternoon. We all know about the rain in the forecast. It arrives late Thursday evening and becomes heavy for a short period Friday morning. It's expected to amount to just less than in inch which isn't enough for widespread flooding though it should raise rivers and creeks substantially and melt much of the snow in valley locations. Rain will end Friday afternoon and we can expect snow flurries later in the day. The weekend stays frozen with Saturday being of the cold and blustery variety (readings near 20) while Sunday features moderating temperatures to near 30. A period of light snow is possible Saturday night with little to no accumulation expected once again. 

I continue to maintain an optimistic view about the Christmas holiday week. Yes, we have a warm looking weather map for the U.S., yet that warmth is not expected to encroach on Vermont much at all. As we celebrate the winter solstice, arctic cold is expected to send temperatures back toward the single digits for Monday morning December 22nd. That advance of chill is likely accompanied by snow showers capable of providing us a small accumulation of snow. Later Monday should feature some blue sky  and this should continue into early Tuesday before clouds from the first of two potential weather producers approach. Snow from the first is most likely late Tuesday and then out by Wednesday. The weather will be too quick moving and the storm (especially the first) not strong enough for a heavy accumulation, but 3-6 inches is certainly in play. A second potential storm on Christmas Day may have a better overrunning setup. It's more than a week out on the forecast timeline making the exact timing and track somewhat of a question mark. I like where we stand right now however and think the weather pattern is very supportive of such an event. Most importantly, and this is an important part of the holiday outlook through 12/26, it should remain below freezing on the mountain throughout.  While the "Torchmas" rages across the central part of the country, Vermont should stay out of it barring an  unexpected weather pattern shift. 

I can't say the above with the same confidence after December 26th. It's possible that we can just carry the Christmas week outlook into the new year. The weather pattern is showing some similarities with interior New England remaining on the fringe of an expected torch in the mid-continent with arctic air in Canada remaining close enough to keep winter in the game. Ensembles are pushing a core of the warmth eastward just a bit after 12/27. Is this enough to push us into more milder weather just before the New Year. It's possible, yet I continue to be of the belief that any thaw will be brief.  The AO is expected to be very positive for the remainder of the year and accounts for the aforementioned warm weather. That said, I love the action in the Pacific and I think this prevents a full scale arctic retreat which would be necessary for a muti-day post Christmas blow torch. 

Early winter weather binge finally ends with some heavy rain Friday while holiday outlook appears a bit better.

The early season winter binge, which has continued more or less since thanksgiving, is finally coming to an end. It will start with a bit of milder weather, ending sub-freezing stretch of weather that's persisted since the last few days of November and then the wet weather arrives early Friday and that rainfall is now expected to get  briefly heavy. 

The darkest period of the year has the advantage of providing a limited window for daytime warming. Often times, key layers above the earth's surface warm faster than the ground, creating a stable inversion that prevents a would-be onslaught of milder temperatures. Northern Vermont gets a little help with that through Wednesday. The weather map looks mild and would produce spring-like weather were the calendar be March. In December however, a cold single digit start to Tuesday will allow us to run out the daytime clock before temperatures climb to the freezing mark; instead, they will settle in the low 20's before falling back into the teens Tuesday night. Warm convection clouds are expected for much of the day Tuesday and the radar might have it look like some precipitation is headed our way for Wednesday, but that system is expected to fall apart. The gusty southwest winds are predicted to break the inversion described above and send temperatures up past the freezing mark by a few degrees. Those winds will actually settle down for Wednesday night allowing readings to fall back into the 20's. The ski day Thursday is expected to be comfortable and precipitation free and is likely to feature a decent period of sunshine.  Clouds will increase late in the as will the southerly winds and that's when the trouble begins. 

Friday's rain producing system never even gives us a chance. It got to the point where I just hoped the system might just fall to pieces and run out of available moisture to send at us. Unfortunately, that's not the direction things are headed. Low pressure is expected to cross the country, hugging the Canadian border for a time and then advancing into Quebec, deep into Quebec. It won't fully mature until it approaches the Labrador and that means lots of time suck moisture northward. Rain will begin in the early morning become heavy sometime during the morning and then end as some snow later in the day Friday. Temperatures and dewpoints are expected to rise into the 40's and hopefully the colder air will arrive quick enough to prevent too much damage. I expect the combination of wind and rain will take out most of  the snow in valley areas while I think the snowpack takes a good punch but survives over the high country . 

For as bad as Friday's rain event looks, I am encouraged with the holiday outlook today. As I've mentioned, much of the south and a good section of the central United States have a very mild looking weather pattern. The interior northeast ? Not so much. The jet stream will continue to support holding the core of the coldest air across western North America, and much of that will be confined to Canada. Some of the cold is expected to split off and take position in eastern Canada and is generally expected to keep Vermont away from the milder air. Models have also shown the possibility for winter weather, both around the time of the Winter Solstice this upcoming Sunday and Christmas day 

Periodic light snow and colder weather through Tuesday and then we get tested with milder pushes of air

 December is a notoriously challenging month in a ski season in terms of avoiding some sort of damaging warm thaw. Glancing back through history, I was surprised to find that even in one of the colder and snowier winters of our new millennium, 2000-2001, we managed to interrupt that December with a 2-inch 40-degree rain. Not since 1989, ironically my first ski trip to the state, did we make it through an entire December without rain or a significant thaw. We will certainly earn half a trophy for 2025 since cold temperatures and occasional light snow are both expected through December 16th. After that we get tested and I don't think we go down without a fight. 

Temperatures near 10 Saturday morning won't feel too cold thanks to calm winds and a few glimpses of morning sunshine. Much of Saturday is expected to be cloudy, especially in the afternoon when light snowfall begins once again. That lighter snow will continue into Saturday evening with a minimal accumulation of an inch or two. Much of the moisture with this latest polar jet buckling will remain disorganized, though it will produce the first accumulating snow for NYC and portions of southern New England early Sunday morning. For us, Sunday will become blustery especially as the day progresses. Clouds and snow flurries will accompany some brief interludes of sunshine. Temperatures will turn colder once again with readings on the mountain hovering around 10 degrees along with those increasingly strong winds. 

Monday, December 15th will start out very cold and a period of morning sunshine is possible. Once again we can expect clouds to encompass the region and more light snow later in the day. Monday will feature less wind than Sunday but with similar temperatures of around 10 degrees. The lighter snow which will persist into Monday night marks the advance of milder temperatures. Expect Tuesday to be a bit less cold as a result with temperatures reaching the 20's. Our first real shot at above freezing temperatures, the first of the month, will come Wednesday as west to southwest winds send the thermometer to near 40 in the valleys and 30's across the high country. 

Ensembles have a wound up system tracking north of Lake Huron on Thursday, December 18th and with that comes our first real test I was speaking about. We are going to need this system to be weaker, farther south or come at us in a few disjointed pieces or else some rain and a period of mild temperatures is likely. Right now, this is tracking as a Thursday night to early Friday rain before temperatures turn sharply colder Friday morning. 

The longer range outlook consists of a lot of mild weather which is expected to dominate the middle part of North America, at least the United States portion around and after the winter solstice and through Christmas. Vermont and the rest of New England is never really expected to be at the center of this warmer outlook and arctic air is expected to remain close by in Canada. Though some rain seems probable prior to solstice weekend, we will see cold weather throughout that weekend and my preliminary thinking is that we remain on the colder side of this battle into Christmas and some winter weather is possible. This pattern is certainly capable of sending another wintry mix type system at us again. We might as well go for the inverted mush at this point regarding the holiday. We've managed to get some sort of mild intrusion almost every winter it seems so if we work that into our expectations, we can only get surprised in the right direction. Enjoy the weekend. 

 

Snowfall Wednesday and Thursday set to bring us 7-14 inches of snow across the mountains and more farther north

The Wednesday/Thursday weather map wouldn't appear ideal for snowfall at first glance, but we are enjoying a special kind of early December winter weather run and we appear in line to make the most of this event. Low pressure will track over Lake Ontario midday Wednesday and then head close to the Canadian border. This position can leave us on the short side of accumulating snowfall and it certainly isn't optimal in this case. That said, southwesterly flow does not appear to be as well defined as it did a few days ago and models are indicating a decent enough plume of moisture over most of the state. Though temperatures will approach or even exceed the freezing mark in low lying areas Wednesday, temperatures across the high country and certainly ski country will support a more powdery snowfall beginning around 9 am Wednesday and continuing in occasional bursts throughout the day. As the upper air support associated with this feature moves closer to Vermont Wednesday night, the snow intensity should become even more elevation sensitive and certainly capable of producing 5-10 inches of snow by Thursday morning at MRG, half of which occurs during the day Wednesday and half the ensuing night. Expect a lesser 3-5 inch wetter snow in valley locations. 

Better also is the support for more snow showers as the day progresses Thursday. The support for this looks sensational closer to Jay Peak, and we should see some additional accumulation in our region as well with 2-4 inches, most of which falls in the later part of the day as the flow becomes more favorable. We can expect some gusty winds both Wednesday and Thursday with Thursday featuring the colder temperatures and wind chills. Temperatures on Thursday are likely to settle in the teens before dropping into the single digits Friday. I think we are in line for some sunshine to conclude the week thanks to a weaker storm system consolidating clouds and some snow well to our south. 

The upcoming mid-December weekend continues to look wintry with some early sunshine Saturday giving way to clouds. Another buckling of the polar jet is expected to bring both a surge of colder weather and a chance for some snow. Models had been teasing the idea of a bigger storm and although this still appears somewhat possible further south, a lighter snow is more likely over the state of Vermont late Saturday night into early Sunday followed by a blustery and cold weekend conclusion. What a remarkable cold start it has been for all of New England. Early season cold has been very difficult to produce here since the coldest arctic air is required to squeeze through so many open bodies of water that have yet to freeze. We manage to pull it off however and on target to finish the first half of the month at more than 10 below the 30 year average. The second half is not expected to be nearly as chilly with arctic air shifting its focus on western North America. I continue to believe the milder intrusions will be short-lived in New England and longer in duration south of us. Some warm advection snow is possible Tuesday ahead of the first push of milder temperatures and there should be additional chances for winter weather as come colder temperatures make a return around Winter Solstice weekend. 

 

 

 

Ligher snowfalls continue the early winter binge until 12/16 when the outlook turns "less cold"

It was another cold bluebird December powder day Monday across the state of Vermont. It is especially unusual to see cold this intense so early in the winter season since the pattern is required to funnel arctic cold in a very particular direction. We managed to get a widespread outbreak of sub-zero cold Friday morning and a second such occurrence is expected Monday night thanks to the clear skies and light winds. 

Following that sub-zero Tuesday morning, temperatures are expected to warm to about 20 degrees in spite of clouds.  Light snow will fall from those clouds later in the evening and accumulate about an inch by Wednesday morning. The ski day Wednesday will feature the mildest weather of the week with readings getting pretty close to the freezing mark as southerly flow tries to establish itself. The milder wind direction is in response to an approaching weather system, the strongest of the week, expected to approach us from the eastern Great Lakes. Recent model runs have managed to move this system a little further south, yet the track is still falling short of idea with the area of low pressure expected to track near the Canadian border Wednesday evening. In spite of this, models still indicate a decent period of snow later Wednesday, enough to produce a 2-4 inch snow. The risk of over-promising on these type of storms is high so I would suggest that although accumulating snow is likely in the MRV, much more is likely from Stowe northward. 

The flow is expected to turn and become west-northwesterly late Wednesday night and with that comes a window where snow showers can be expected. I was hoping this storm would be capable of producing a more extended window, persisting into Thursday, when snow showers might add to the accumulation, but with this event models are limiting this. After the 2-4 late Wednesday, we can expect another 1-4 Wednesday night with higher snow totals farther north. Conditions will be blustery Thursday with readings hovering in the high teens before falling into the single numbers Thursday night. Before I sign off on snowfall for late in the week, it is possible that a smaller disturbance enhances the snow shower activity for Thursday night or early Friday. Later Friday should feature some sunshine however as storm system well south of  us acts as the focusing mechanism for moisture, precipitation and clouds. 

The upcoming weekend is lined up to be very wintry. At the very least we can expect clouds with the chance for some light snow on Saturday. The Sunday weather map consists of a possible more organized storm that could bring snowfall anywhere between some of the bigger east coast cities to interior New England. With the early winter polar jet quite involved in the pattern, getting a handle on the eventual track can take a little longer. Regardless, temperatures will be well below freezing and will land in the teens on the mountain on both the weekend ski days. A strong dose of arctic chill is then expected to get driven into eastern North America by the aforementioned polar jet later Sunday and Sunday night. With that is likely some well below zero wind chills and a chilly Monday December 15th. 

The longer range has shifted to the less cold side in recent days. The pattern across North America is still being anchored by a really nice blocking couplet in the jet stream centered over the middle Pacific. Downstream of that, the cold is indicated to shift its focus on the western part of the continent more, mainly the Pacific Northwest along with the Canadian provinces of British Columbia and Alberta. Promising warmer weather for the south-central and southeastern United States is easy, but we still expect arctic cold to remain anchored across most of Canada. The pattern toward the solstice offers the possibility of  short-lived rainy intrusion with two caveats. 1) The milder weather should not persist beyond 1-2 days and the possibility for a bigger snowfall will continue if the dominoes fall the right way.  

Wintry outlook continues into the middle of the month as opening day '25-'26 is announced

Opening Day incoming ! And it's always good to get that announcement before December 10th. Following a bluebird and very cold Friday, with temperatures on the mountain struggling to exceed 10, opening day Saturday should be more comfortable though cloudier as a disturbance well to our north eventually brings some very light snow our way. Don't expect much from this feature, maybe an inch by late Saturday evening. Arctic cold is then reinforced for Sunday, which has the possibility of featuring a period of sunshine. Wind speed should not be too much of an issue after some very cold wind chills early Friday. Winds will be out of the southwest on Saturday and will be a little gusty on the lifts along with temperatures in the 20's. Sunday will be the colder day but with less wind. 

A little more clarity is starting to emerge for next week and mostly in a positive way in terms of how it makes the snowfall outlook appear. Sunday's cold intrusion will tighten its grip on the region Sunday night into Monday, producing a very chilly early December day Monday, our 2nd in 4 days. Once again, temperatures will struggle to reach 10 on the mountain after starting below zero. Any sub-zero is impressive this early in the season since it would happen before arctic typically reaches its peak winter intensity. There are at least 2 weather systems after a sunny day on Monday that could produce snow. A clipper system will bring clouds and some snowfall late on Tuesday and Tuesday night. This system should remain a clipper so this limits the upside potential on snow, but the system after that could evolve into something capable of being more significant. This would be in the time frame of Wednesday and Thursday when parts of eastern North America are set to receive a bit of milder air while Vermont hopefully remains on the snowy side of that equation. The end of next week is likely to conclude colder with the possibility of snow showers as the said colder air again reestablishes itself. 

The longer range is interesting. One of the more important features will be a jet stream block expected to situate over the Chukchi and E Siberian Sea mostly west of the Bering Sea and Alaska. After neutralizing for a few days, the EPO should thus turn negative once again and allow cold air to dominate most of Canada. This above mentioned feature is far enough to the west however to favor cold in western over eastern North America, yet Vermont and much of interior New England sits a favorable location for colder air and additional snowfall. At no point does it look like the cold is forced into a major retreat across the continent and this is very encouraging. We should continue to see snow dot the forecast for the 2nd full weekend of the month and into the week beyond. 

Early season cold expected to take a firm grip over Vermont through at least 12/11 even if snowfall opportunities are on the lighter side

Just a beautiful gentle early winter snow across the entire Mad River Valley on Tuesday. Hard to do better in a typically erratic part of the season and what's even better is that we've got cold locked into place through most of next week. Wednesday is a terrific day to enjoy Tuesday's fallen snow as well. We get some limited sunshine and temperature that mostly land in the 20's on the mountain and 30's in valley locations. 

Arctic reinforcements arrive Thursday and with them come snow showers and snow squalls. There's a brief window  Thursday afternoon when a burst of snow is likely to get intense, but the arriving airmass is a stable one and should quiet the convective snow shower activity Thursday evening. Expect 1-3 inches across the high country Thursday with an dusting to an inch down low. Thursday night turns very chilly with readings dropping to near zero Friday morning along with strong northwest winds. On Friday however, winds should diminish some and we will left with a cold but bluebird day more typical of the middle of winter. Readings on the mountain will struggle to reach the teens. 

The weekend outlook does not consist of a ton of new accumulating snow. Saturday will feature clouds, temperatures in the 20's and perhaps a period of light snow with little accumulation. Sunday should feature more sun and it again turns colder with more arctic air entrenching itself over Vermont in preparation for the 2nd full week of the month. This period, the 8th through the 12th of the month looks solidly sub-freezing yet the outlook has turned drier from the vantage point of well-organized weather systems. Ensembles do suggest snowfall from multiple clipper systems right now though that type of outlook can evolve quickly as the period continues to get resolved by models. 

The longer range is interesting since we have a really solid core of very cold early season arctic air over the North American continent. The teleconnections, led by the EPO (weak Pacific jet stream) are supportive and most indications are that they turn from favorable to neutral by around the 10th of the month. Clearly though, there are no indications that there is a mechanism in the jet stream that will force a continental type retreat of arctic air. The core of the cold might shift west for a period after the 10th, perhaps enough to allow for a 1-2 day Vermont thaw after next week though indications are it would be very short-lived. It's quite possible that we see no such thaw at our latitude and simply receive another round of decent snow. Again, relative to a typical early December weather situation, it's hard to take too much of an issue with any of this outlook.