Christmas outlook gets a massive boost today with snow expected pretty much every day this upcoming week and two significant accumulations!

The short term forecast, which, for the sake of this update, covers Christmas week up to 12/26 gets a really positive update today and certainly not an additional warming trend. We have some concerns in the days that follow the 27th, maybe an additional concern after the New Year's holiday but there's a lot of winter weather to talk about. When I think about this in the backdrop of what we've seen in recent Christmas holiday periods, this may be one of the snowiest outlooks I can remember in this period going back a while. 

The Merry Torchmas cards are certainly in play for a good chunk of the country. The middle and lower Mississippi Valley areas, Tennessee, Kentucky, all of the Deep South and even the Mid Atlantic will just roast with plenty of record high temperatures getting recorded on multiple days. Interestingly, even portions of the Great Lakes, which have experienced a very cold month so far, are expected to get mild and eventually wet Friday into Saturday. Interior New England is simply not going to take part in this song in dance, at least for a while. Arctic air on Monday will have a firm grip on the region and certainly us. Temperatures are generally expected to be sub 15 and the weather map would suggest a blue bird day, yet models don't agree and are suggesting clouds and even some light innocuous cold snow with minimal accumulation. Steadier snow is expected by mid morning Tuesday thanks to a decent looking clipper system. Though heavy snow isn't expected, northern Vermont, the Adirondacks and much of New Hampshire are positioned very well for an extended period of this light but steady snow which should persist through Tuesday night and into early Wednesday. The long duration of snowfall will help send us into the 5-10 inch inches of new snow category by midday Christmas Eve and we should be happy with the fluffier more powdery consistency. 

While warm air is pushing northeastward on Christmas Day, it's progress into northern New England will get thwarted. It's a benign looking jet stream impulse expected to bring more light snow to us on our Christmas Thursday. Though it's still expected to be the mildest day of the week, 30 degrees is a lot better than the 70 degree readings which will be occurring several hundred miles to our south. By Friday, a piece of modified arctic high pressure situated over eastern Canada, will push south and solidify what will be a very critical hold on the region as a stronger storm system approaches from the west. The temperature boundary, which will be intense by the 26th, will certainly help enhance the area of precipitation which will start falling as snow for us late Friday. There are some similarities to the setup here and what I remember as the powder fest that occurred in what I call the 18-1 week back in February 2008. The Giants ruined the Pats perfect season on that Sunday and it pretty much snowed for 3 consecutive days after that but the memory is getting a little fuzzy and the Giants do nothing but lose now. In this case, it appears we are set up for some good steady snow through early Saturday the 27th and as the weekend progresses we are fending off a push of milder air.  Some alterations will be needed in this forecast so expect that and anticipate some great powder for Saturday if we can keep this outlook in tact and possibly some mixed precipitation and even some above freezing temperatures by later Sunday. I might also add that models have yet to converge on this scenario so expect to see some forecasts reflecting this uncertainty and it may not agree with what i just wrote. I feel a bit more confident after successive runs of the European Ensemble have indicated this late Friday to early Saturday snow followed by the chance for a wintry mix Sunday. 

Near Year's week will at least feature a more wintry start with that potential wintry mix on Sunday turning back to a colder snow Monday. Expect blustery conditions with temperatures in the teens and then those readings will moderate as the week progresses. Models have moved away from targeting the New Year's holiday specifically for a storm, they have instead done that next weekend (the 27th and 28th), so it looks drier and a bit milder though not excessively so for now. Ensembles continue to try and push a very strong ridge in the middle of the continent northeastward toward us, but it's never indicated to get that strong or extend especially far to the north. Let's hope it stays that way. We aren't getting any help from the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which makes it tough for arctic air to attain any widespread U.S. coverage. Meanwhile, the Pacific has been cooperative to varying degrees and this has helped keep the chill alive especially in Canada. The Hudson Bay is about 3 weeks ahead of last year in terms of ice coverage and this makes it a bit easier for arctic air to pool over eastern Canada. Anyway, it's exciting stuff for most of the next week and a really nice Christmas period update so enjoy what I think is coming.