Just some clouds and occasional light snow for your powdery Saturday. If you've been a weekend warrior and braved some of the bitter cold this year, the temperatures Saturday, which may get close to 30 at the base, will feel quite balmy. Lots of talk about the weather in the northeast for the end of the weekend even if the worst of it misses northern Vermont
The very maligned American GFS model has taken a beating this year from weather enthusiasts. It's been wrong a lot and without the guidance from other simulations, would have led forecasters very astray many times. There's now a blizzard expected to hit southern New England late Sunday into Monday, an especially crippling event for the Cape and Islands region extending westward to Connecticut and New York City. The GFS has consistently showed this event while other models have been downplaying. It's not likely to materialize exactly as the GFS has suggested, but eventual solution is likely going to be blend of several models, underscoring the importance of taking everything into account and not simply dismissing data because of a batting slump. Northern Vermont will actually squeeze some sunshine and a relatively mild Sunday out of this weather situation. As the area of low pressure is taking shape along the Carolina coast, precipitation and even the clouds will be south and west of us leaving our mountains with a chilly morning and temperatures that will likely climb just above the freezing mark in the afternoon. There's a lot of wind expected with this storm, though Sunday in northern Vermont should remain relatively calm.
Even if some of the forecast models remain somewhat unaligned, it's a classic bombs away situation for the northeast coastline in a very memorable kind of way. Some of the higher resolution output has our upcoming nor'easter strengthening to about 965 mb south of the Cape and Islands and that's certainly enough to create blizzard-like conditions and increase the chances for power outages. Northern Vermont has appeared out of the way from this storm, but one can never underestimate the northward reach of these monster systems. We know clouds and blustery conditions will certainly get at us Monday and I think its more likely we see a period of snow during the day as well. We would get a fringe benefit type of accumulation in the 1-4 inch range and just watch for some critical last second changes. The worst kind of travel conditions can be expected in eastern Mass for Monday. Wind with heavy snow and near freezing temperatures are some of the worst winter storm conditions to drive in. Any snow will certainly be over in Vermont by Monday evening and should wind down in eastern Mass after 8 PM Monday.
We can expect some chilly temperatures to go along with the strong winds (and any snowfall for Monday). Readings are likely to hover in the high teens on the mountain. Clouds are then expected to break for a little sunshine on Tuesday though strong winds are expected to remain to go along with even colder temperatures on the mountain between 10-15. The next push of milder air moves in our direction for Wednesday but guess what, it's another fail. Just more clouds and another period of snowfall and another likely accumulation with temperatures holding in the 20's. It appears closer to the freezing mark for Thursday and Friday and yet the trajectory of the another weather system is likely going to keep readings from getting too mild. Snow or a wintry mix seems to be the most likely outcome early Friday after a mostly dry Thursday.
The weekend consisting of the last day of February and the first day of March appears mild. Even with the adverse EPO however, models are building up an impressive area of arctic air in Canada and some of that is expected to reach New England in early March. Enough I think to keep the winter weather coming. Some milder March-like temperatures are then possible later that week.
No comments:
Post a Comment