In spite of the warm weather headed in our direction, Monday morning's 10 below ranks as one of the colder mornings of the season, even as strong March sunshine brings temperatures back into the teens. There's an end in sight to the mild weather and a section of the forecast period doesn't appear as warm though it doesn't change the overall theme of the update. We also still have snow lined up for Tuesday evening which I get to talk about first.
I love a cold bluebird day and Monday is certainly one of the better ones of the year given the relatively calm winds. These conditions will persist through early Tuesday with temperatures beginning the day around zero along with more sunshine. The thermometer is expected to rise quickly Tuesday and may eclipse the freezing mark briefly even as clouds increase later in the ski day. The snow is expected to begin around 6 pm, timed perfectly with the onset of darkness. Temperatures profiles suggest that the falling snow occurs with readings in the high 20's with accumulations in the 3-5 inch range. The snow is over before dawn and there could be some freezing drizzle very early Wednesday. The clouds on Wednesday are expected to gradually break for some blue sky with the thermometer warming to near 40 by the end of the day. Skiers looking for the driest snow should certainly venture out early with the warm weather later in the day expected to impact most of the mountain.
Thursday appears like a dry day with clouds returning. It appears as if temperatures fall back under the freezing mark in the morning and then rise well above that during the day. Model guidance would suggest an afternoon high close to 40 though it appears to me as if we could exceed that. Friday appears to be a different story entirely and a day that certainly appears different then a few days ago. A low level push of cold arrives from Canada and I would expect this to be strong enough to keep temperatures closer to the freezing mark through much of the day on the mountain. Model consensus would suggest the heaviest precipitation stays to our south with light rain or light freezing rain most likely for a period in central and northern Vermont. In spite of the large warm weather ridge parked over the east coast in this time frame, the low level chill appears formidable enough to remain in place through much of Saturday, keeping it in the 30's for a time with clouds and low visibility. The push of warm air might finally win out very late in the ski day Saturday and this could be accompanied by some rainfall. Sunday continues to appear like a torch with temperatures surging into the 50's. Though clouds could break for some sunshine, the chance for showers continues.
Sunday's 50-plus temperatures is the first of what we expect will be a few days with very excessive March warmth. Each of the next three days of the week (at least) are likely to see readings in the 50's with and 1-2 days could exceed 60. The middle part of next week has an elevated risk where, higher winds, very warm temperatures and rain spur a rapid melt off. Still some time to alter this evolution and I am aware of some events on the mountain we would certainly like to keep some snow around for. Ensembles have come around to the idea of a more favorable winter weather jet stream picture for the middle of the month. We don't totally calm some of the anger coming out of the Pacific, but we do get pretty neutral while operational models continue to show the return of some colder air prior to the weekend of March 14th and 15th.
