Lots to talk about once again in this ever evolving weather scenario. I think we had a bit of a better handle on things during the last update but it's time to expand on details in what should an exciting finish to January. A moisture-starved clipper system spreads its limited moisture into the region Friday resulting in some occasional light snow and a very light accumulation. This system, however, brings with it a classic New England arctic sneak attack. These particular intrusions of cold are unmodified by the Great Lakes and are thus quite vicious and often poorly identified on the medium range models. Cold will arrive later Friday and send temperatures on the mountain plummeting to near -15 on the mountain by Saturday morning. Limited sunshine during the day Saturday and lighter winds will make the day feel somewhat more comfortable as temperatures recover to above zero.
We then turn our attention to a stronger clipper system which is expected to pass through the Great Lakes Saturday night into early Sunday. As it does so it will grab ahold of a very weak but very important southern branch jet disturbance. These two systems will gradually phase with the southern branch feature using the jet dynamics from the clipper to expand its field of precipitation. There is dissention amongst the available model data on the exact track of this storm around New England. It isn't a big disagreement but the window of heavy precipitation associated with this storm, although significant, is very narrow and thus a difference of 100 miles in the storm track has a large bearing on the eventual results for our beloved mountain. The last Euro model tracked the developing system over New Hampshire with its ensemble members showing a track closer to the seacoast. Either of these scenarios deliver 10-inch hit for most of VT Sunday and Sunday night with additional snows Monday. Both the American and Canadian models were just off the coast with the track and given this aforementioned narrow band of snowfall being indicated with this storm, the result given this scenario would be a light accumulation. A blend of the results and the mountain would be on the edge, but should do ok. My guess right now is that it's about 40 percent for a 10-plus inch snow late Sunday, Sunday night and Monday and a 70 percent chance for at least a few inches. Just to clarify, the snow would arrive on a milder Sunday and should begin falling with temperatures in the high 20's. If we can land in the sweet spot, the snow would continue Sunday night and taper to lighter but continuous snows Monday.
Seasonable temperatures follow in the wake of this system later Monday into Tuesday. By later in the day Tuesday a clipper system passes to the region's south and brings most of its limited moisture well to the regions south. I don't think we are going to miss too much out of this guy. More seasonable but relatively dry weather continues for Wednesday and then into early Thursday.
This brings us to the end of the week and the re-ignition (at least we hope) of the all important southern branch. Believe me, I would throw a housewarming party for it if I could ! Over the last two days, we have seen with better clarity, indications of a significant weather system exiting the Southern Rockies during the middle of next week and gather substantial amounts of moisture as it crosses into Texas and begins to head east or northeast. Plenty of differing scenarios with what looks to be a storm exhibiting lots of potential. None of the models have yet to yield any consistent results regarding a possible outcome, but they are suggesting an outcome which in and of itself is important. If we were to get a hit out of this it would be Friday Jan 23 and would include some significant snowfall. There is certainly a chance for a miss and there is a slight chance of snow and ice (The Euro had that this morning but was farther south on the afternoon run).
Every indication is then pointing toward the development of a massive upper ridge building across western North America and ultimately expanding into the Yukon, Alaska and into the Bering Sea. This is the kind of pattern we more or less expected at the beginning of the winter and we should get a good dose of it for at least the last week of January. This means the re-arrival of the polar jet, the southward advance of the "Polar Vortex", lots of cold air, and a few clippers to go along with it. The Euro Ensembles showed a result liked the best that included the continued presence of the southern branch of the jet stream, especially toward the very end of January. Lots of good things here, enough that we can handle a bad surprise should one show up at the last second.
Thursday, January 15, 2015
Tuesday, January 13, 2015
Snowier forecasts and squashed warm-ups - These are a few of my favorite things !
Lots to discuss today as the expected weather map going forward is taking on a fundamentally different look, particularly in the period beginning MLK day and persisting through a good chunk of next week. This is simply one of those days where guys like me look at the Chess Board and come to the realization that its time to wipe the slate clean and start anew. In one of our recent discussions, we talked about, to put it kindly, the erratic performance of some of the medium range ensembles this winter. Specifically as it relates to the weather beyond a week out. The rapidly evolving weather scenario for next week is underscoring this point. I mean even the larger scale ideas that were advertised with vigor only a few days ago have been thrown completely out the window today. There are reasons for this and opinions will vary as to those reasons. Generally speaking, many of the super-warm ideas that have been indicated on some of the long range weather maps have failed due to feedbacks related to that big expansion of snow and ice that we saw leading up the winter. There is simply a lot of cold air that has pooled at the high latitudes and it is fighting hard to move south in spite of whatever weather pattern is present. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has soared to near record positive levels making it very difficult to position any type of upper ridge across eastern North America for any significant length of time, even when the ensembles suggest as much. And lastly, the presence and absence of the southern branch of the jet has wreaked havoc on the longer range ensembles. The positions of even subtle "ridges" and "trough's" in the southern branch can have a profound impact on the evolution of the pattern. It's really just chaos theory. If you integrate through time and get something significantly wrong 5 days out, even something seemingly subtle, the dominos start to fall and errors magnify exponentially 10 days out.
But none of us should be complaining in this case since the changes should, by in large, benefit our beloved Mad River Glen skiing community. Maybe even those that planned to venture up on the upcoming long holiday weekend and plan to ski on what looked to be a quiet and possibly even mild MLK Day.
So lets get to it. The short run looks dry and on the chilly side. Sub-zero temperatures during each of both Wednesday and Thursday morning will get boosted into the teens Wednesday and 20's Thursday by healthy dose of sunshine. A weak clipper Thursday night, passing well to the region's north will spread some limited moisture and very light snow to the mountain and an inch or two of accumulation by early Friday. Blustery conditions prevail for the duration of Friday and those winds will introduce another night of sub-zero temperatures.
Saturday appears on the chilly side but free of snow. There were hints that some overrunning moisture associated with a push of warmer temperatures might impact the mountain and this will occur but much farther north. Clouds will then increase Saturday night in advance of another, much stronger, clipper system. This particular piece of energy might be capable of grabbing some southern stream moisture as it heads toward the eastern seaboard. If this does indeed occur, the system is expected refocus itself along the coast and intensify Sunday. From there, the system will either head out over the ocean or remain close enough to the coast to spread rain along the coast and snow in some of the elevated interior areas such as MRG. Either scenario means some snow for the mountain Sunday night into Monday since we will either get it from the decaying clipper (a light accumulation) or more from the rapidly intensifying coastal system. All this is a very welcome change from a scenario which was shaping up to have this clipper pass well to our north and potentially spreading mild above-freezing temperatures into the region late Sunday into Monday. In a day or two, I'll have a better idea as to amounts of snow when we know for sure whether or not this storm will come to fruition.
The later part of MLK days into Tuesday Jan 20 looks substantially colder with temperatures only the teens by day and sub-zero by night. This was in a period where the ensembles advertised a potential thaw maybe 3-4 days ago. The other big change involves the southern branch of the stream which continues to look dormant. It is the only real piece of semi-lousy news I could come up with today. We simply can not seem to re-ignite this branch of the jet since it went quiet in late December. Perhaps a slight weakening of the current El Nino has allowed southern stream energy to be less prevalent but I hope to see more activity in the future. The combination however of a much weaker ridge across eastern Canada next week and the apparent continued absence of the southern branch of the jet stream gives the middle to end of the weak a much different look. There are indications of a weather system in the mid-week period (Jan 21-22) but a much weaker one and the good news, a much snowier one since warm-up has been squashed in successive recent runs of model data.
Looking beyond the 22nd, the teleconnection support gets a little better, mainly since the positive NAO will be reduced while PNA ridging in western North America is maintained. We are expected to see a small tightening in the jet stream however which could throw a couple of strong storms into the Pacific Northwest around the time of January 24th-25th. I would expect at least some arctic air to be battling it out with these storms in the last week of January. This feels more like a guess right now given how poorly some of these longer range simulations have performed in the last month or so.
But none of us should be complaining in this case since the changes should, by in large, benefit our beloved Mad River Glen skiing community. Maybe even those that planned to venture up on the upcoming long holiday weekend and plan to ski on what looked to be a quiet and possibly even mild MLK Day.
So lets get to it. The short run looks dry and on the chilly side. Sub-zero temperatures during each of both Wednesday and Thursday morning will get boosted into the teens Wednesday and 20's Thursday by healthy dose of sunshine. A weak clipper Thursday night, passing well to the region's north will spread some limited moisture and very light snow to the mountain and an inch or two of accumulation by early Friday. Blustery conditions prevail for the duration of Friday and those winds will introduce another night of sub-zero temperatures.
Saturday appears on the chilly side but free of snow. There were hints that some overrunning moisture associated with a push of warmer temperatures might impact the mountain and this will occur but much farther north. Clouds will then increase Saturday night in advance of another, much stronger, clipper system. This particular piece of energy might be capable of grabbing some southern stream moisture as it heads toward the eastern seaboard. If this does indeed occur, the system is expected refocus itself along the coast and intensify Sunday. From there, the system will either head out over the ocean or remain close enough to the coast to spread rain along the coast and snow in some of the elevated interior areas such as MRG. Either scenario means some snow for the mountain Sunday night into Monday since we will either get it from the decaying clipper (a light accumulation) or more from the rapidly intensifying coastal system. All this is a very welcome change from a scenario which was shaping up to have this clipper pass well to our north and potentially spreading mild above-freezing temperatures into the region late Sunday into Monday. In a day or two, I'll have a better idea as to amounts of snow when we know for sure whether or not this storm will come to fruition.
The later part of MLK days into Tuesday Jan 20 looks substantially colder with temperatures only the teens by day and sub-zero by night. This was in a period where the ensembles advertised a potential thaw maybe 3-4 days ago. The other big change involves the southern branch of the stream which continues to look dormant. It is the only real piece of semi-lousy news I could come up with today. We simply can not seem to re-ignite this branch of the jet since it went quiet in late December. Perhaps a slight weakening of the current El Nino has allowed southern stream energy to be less prevalent but I hope to see more activity in the future. The combination however of a much weaker ridge across eastern Canada next week and the apparent continued absence of the southern branch of the jet stream gives the middle to end of the weak a much different look. There are indications of a weather system in the mid-week period (Jan 21-22) but a much weaker one and the good news, a much snowier one since warm-up has been squashed in successive recent runs of model data.
Looking beyond the 22nd, the teleconnection support gets a little better, mainly since the positive NAO will be reduced while PNA ridging in western North America is maintained. We are expected to see a small tightening in the jet stream however which could throw a couple of strong storms into the Pacific Northwest around the time of January 24th-25th. I would expect at least some arctic air to be battling it out with these storms in the last week of January. This feels more like a guess right now given how poorly some of these longer range simulations have performed in the last month or so.
Monday, January 12, 2015
Nothing big for MLK weekend but I could have worse news
Some light snow here and an occasional snow squall there and very gradually we are regaining a bit of softness on the hill. The additional snow on Monday will help in this regard. We should receive 3-5 inches or so before it again turns very chilly. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday will all be dry and should feature a decent amount of sunshine. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will feature sub-zero temperatures in the morning and teens in the afternoon. Thursday should be a little less cold with readings climbing into the 20's.
Unfortunately, I think we have to put the potential late-week and pre-holiday nor'easter to bed. The southern branch system is not displaying the kind of prevalence we need. In addition to that, lingering polar jet energy will prevent any such system from any type of New England impact. A weak clipper system Friday associated with this polar jet could provide another small accumulation followed by a chilly day Saturday.
The period beginning Sunday Jan 18 and ending Thursday Jan 22 is the time frame where the mountain could be under siege from milder temperatures. Without the support of any of the major teleconnection indices combined with strengthening jet in the Pacific means without a doubt some above freezing temperatures. The question is whether this particular setup results in a major and damaging thaw or whether the damage can be limited and a more productive alternative can be found. Some of the most recent information suggests the latter. The southern branch will rediscover itself and a storm will move into Texas and then advance toward the eastern seaboard by about the time of Jan 21. A very limited supply of cold air will be available but perhaps just enough to keep us in the game and provide us with a puncher's chance at something other than plain rain.
I did skip over some important details on MLK weekend. The chilly day Saturday could be followed by yet another round of light snow either late in the day or early Sunday. Sunday and Monday could feature temperatures in the 30's but overnights should remain below freezing. We then focus on the potential storm which still could turn into at least a brief thaw.
There are signs on recent the last few ensemble runs of more support from the PNA and AO after the 22nd. There is some major disagreement between the European and American ensemble about personality of the Pacific jet and how it might impact the pattern across North America but I am marginally confident that the month will finish on the colder side. The key is to get through the storm on the 21st and 22nd without a damaging thaw (and perhaps get some snow in the process) and we should be off to the races from there.
Unfortunately, I think we have to put the potential late-week and pre-holiday nor'easter to bed. The southern branch system is not displaying the kind of prevalence we need. In addition to that, lingering polar jet energy will prevent any such system from any type of New England impact. A weak clipper system Friday associated with this polar jet could provide another small accumulation followed by a chilly day Saturday.
The period beginning Sunday Jan 18 and ending Thursday Jan 22 is the time frame where the mountain could be under siege from milder temperatures. Without the support of any of the major teleconnection indices combined with strengthening jet in the Pacific means without a doubt some above freezing temperatures. The question is whether this particular setup results in a major and damaging thaw or whether the damage can be limited and a more productive alternative can be found. Some of the most recent information suggests the latter. The southern branch will rediscover itself and a storm will move into Texas and then advance toward the eastern seaboard by about the time of Jan 21. A very limited supply of cold air will be available but perhaps just enough to keep us in the game and provide us with a puncher's chance at something other than plain rain.
I did skip over some important details on MLK weekend. The chilly day Saturday could be followed by yet another round of light snow either late in the day or early Sunday. Sunday and Monday could feature temperatures in the 30's but overnights should remain below freezing. We then focus on the potential storm which still could turn into at least a brief thaw.
There are signs on recent the last few ensemble runs of more support from the PNA and AO after the 22nd. There is some major disagreement between the European and American ensemble about personality of the Pacific jet and how it might impact the pattern across North America but I am marginally confident that the month will finish on the colder side. The key is to get through the storm on the 21st and 22nd without a damaging thaw (and perhaps get some snow in the process) and we should be off to the races from there.
Thursday, January 8, 2015
Lots of light snow over the next 4 days, big storm for late next week is still possible but not likely
Not much new to report either in the short range where we're still expecting a small dose of snow and in the longer range, specifically in the days before and during the MLK holiday weekend when we may or may not get impacted by a storm.
The clipper system is rotating through the Great Lakes quite quickly. It will spread it's snow into Vermont by early Friday. The snow will be fluffy and won't be particularly heavy but could accumulate 2-4 inches on the hill. A nice reinforcing blast of chill then arrives on Saturday and there is the weakest of impulses within the polar jet which will help guide lake effect moisture and some added Lake Champlain moisture on to the mountain. This might allow for another inch or two Saturday. All very much needed and appreciated. Saturday's set-up is unique and I wouldn't be surprised if someone gets lucky and surprises with 5-plus inches. It will continue to be on the chilly side through Saturday though not as cold as what it was Thursday. Expect temperatures to sneak into the 20's Friday and remain in the teens Saturday
On Sunday, temperatures will moderate out of the bone chilling cold. This means that much of interior New England will become enveloped by warm advection. This can mean some overrunning snows though models disagree on how much of that we might receive late Sunday into Monday. At the very least however we should get another small dose (1-3 inches) by late in the day Monday. The information today suggests we dry out for Tuesday and Wednesday as chilly yet not brutally cold air settles into the region.
It would be very nice if we could successfully spin up this pre-MLK day storm. There is lots of baroclinicity across the southeast. This means a healthy clashing of airmasses and lots of frontogenetics. And the preceding two sentences has way too many ridiculously long words (sorry about that). As this is happening the pattern is expected to amplify and do so thanks to a noticeable southern branch feature. The Euro on Wednesday produced a beautiful looking storm out of all these ingredients but we have yet to see any consistency in the output or support from some of the other medium range simulation. At this point a big hit for Vermont is probably less than 50 percent but I think a hit for somewhere in New England is greater than 50 percent.
The polar jet recedes further for the holiday weekend and temperatures will slowly but noticeably moderate. We could begin seeing some above-freezing temperatures toward the end of the holiday weekend and especially by the 20th of the month. This doesn't necessarily mean a catastrophic thaw but it does mean a series of above average temperature days. The southern branch of the jet is expected to remain active and could produce another significant precipitation producer around the time of Jan 21.
The clipper system is rotating through the Great Lakes quite quickly. It will spread it's snow into Vermont by early Friday. The snow will be fluffy and won't be particularly heavy but could accumulate 2-4 inches on the hill. A nice reinforcing blast of chill then arrives on Saturday and there is the weakest of impulses within the polar jet which will help guide lake effect moisture and some added Lake Champlain moisture on to the mountain. This might allow for another inch or two Saturday. All very much needed and appreciated. Saturday's set-up is unique and I wouldn't be surprised if someone gets lucky and surprises with 5-plus inches. It will continue to be on the chilly side through Saturday though not as cold as what it was Thursday. Expect temperatures to sneak into the 20's Friday and remain in the teens Saturday
On Sunday, temperatures will moderate out of the bone chilling cold. This means that much of interior New England will become enveloped by warm advection. This can mean some overrunning snows though models disagree on how much of that we might receive late Sunday into Monday. At the very least however we should get another small dose (1-3 inches) by late in the day Monday. The information today suggests we dry out for Tuesday and Wednesday as chilly yet not brutally cold air settles into the region.
It would be very nice if we could successfully spin up this pre-MLK day storm. There is lots of baroclinicity across the southeast. This means a healthy clashing of airmasses and lots of frontogenetics. And the preceding two sentences has way too many ridiculously long words (sorry about that). As this is happening the pattern is expected to amplify and do so thanks to a noticeable southern branch feature. The Euro on Wednesday produced a beautiful looking storm out of all these ingredients but we have yet to see any consistency in the output or support from some of the other medium range simulation. At this point a big hit for Vermont is probably less than 50 percent but I think a hit for somewhere in New England is greater than 50 percent.
The polar jet recedes further for the holiday weekend and temperatures will slowly but noticeably moderate. We could begin seeing some above-freezing temperatures toward the end of the holiday weekend and especially by the 20th of the month. This doesn't necessarily mean a catastrophic thaw but it does mean a series of above average temperature days. The southern branch of the jet is expected to remain active and could produce another significant precipitation producer around the time of Jan 21.
Tuesday, January 6, 2015
Snowfall only expected in small increments in the coming week
Although the region has been one of the few across the country to maintain some snow through the recent two weeks, we are in some serious need of some new snow. We have a little coming our way and there are hints of a few possibilities out on the horizon but nothing of huge significance through the upcoming weekend. The clipper system we had hoped would deposit a few inches on the region moved well to the south and brought snow to Washington DC (I don't like it when they get snow and we don't !). Still there is another disturbance moving quickly through the polar jet and we should see a quick burst of some snowfall with the added terrain and Lake Champlain enhancement. It won't amount to more than 1-3 inches before brutally cold weather settles on the mountain later Wednesday and persisting through early Friday.
Another clipper should then impact the region during the day Friday. The polar jet will be lifting a bit at this point allowing some of this system's moisture to take more direct aim at the region. This is another very benign system so I would be hesitant to say anything more than 2-4 inches but these little nickle and dimers should help soften the mountain up a little. The rest of the weekend will be primarily dry and relatively seasonable. This means single digits for lows, 20's for high's and not too much in the way of wind.
Still expecting the pattern to soften next week. The polar jet will recede but the upper ridge in the jet stream will remain in the west. This could have been a very interesting week if the southern branch of the jet stream came out to play but there are simply no indications of this yet. There is another clipper system Monday and a possible jet amplification late in the week. This particular period, Jan 14-16, still looks intriguing but we need to get some moisture from somewhere and models are just not showing it right now. I am keeping my fingers crossed and still think we could see some changes, especially considering how inaccurate some of the medium range computer simulations have been beyond 10 days.
Speaking of that, we can take an early look at the MLK holiday weekend. Right now I can't promise much help from any of the teleconnection indices and the upper ridge across the west is expected to dissapate somewhat. This allowing the ensembles to show a very warm signal between the 19th and 22nd of the month. The only saving grace is the indication of some long awaited help from the southern branch of the jet stream, but unless some of these fundamentals turn around we will be lacking for cold air. Again, models have struggled this year beyond 10 days so I would expect opinions to evolve over time.
Another clipper should then impact the region during the day Friday. The polar jet will be lifting a bit at this point allowing some of this system's moisture to take more direct aim at the region. This is another very benign system so I would be hesitant to say anything more than 2-4 inches but these little nickle and dimers should help soften the mountain up a little. The rest of the weekend will be primarily dry and relatively seasonable. This means single digits for lows, 20's for high's and not too much in the way of wind.
Still expecting the pattern to soften next week. The polar jet will recede but the upper ridge in the jet stream will remain in the west. This could have been a very interesting week if the southern branch of the jet stream came out to play but there are simply no indications of this yet. There is another clipper system Monday and a possible jet amplification late in the week. This particular period, Jan 14-16, still looks intriguing but we need to get some moisture from somewhere and models are just not showing it right now. I am keeping my fingers crossed and still think we could see some changes, especially considering how inaccurate some of the medium range computer simulations have been beyond 10 days.
Speaking of that, we can take an early look at the MLK holiday weekend. Right now I can't promise much help from any of the teleconnection indices and the upper ridge across the west is expected to dissapate somewhat. This allowing the ensembles to show a very warm signal between the 19th and 22nd of the month. The only saving grace is the indication of some long awaited help from the southern branch of the jet stream, but unless some of these fundamentals turn around we will be lacking for cold air. Again, models have struggled this year beyond 10 days so I would expect opinions to evolve over time.
Saturday, January 3, 2015
Another layer of concrete solidifies the base prior to a wintry week
Nice swath of moderate to heavy precipitation of many varieties has impacted much of New York state Saturday. This stuff will all move into Vermont as snow Saturday evening and all of the latest and greatest information available suggests a nice little thumping in a window between 6 pm and midnight Sunday. There is no way of avoiding a dramatic rise in temperatures that is expected above 5,000 feet after midnight. This should change precipitation to a sleet and freezing rain mixture. The question then becomes whether or not the warmth can mix its way to the surface by early Sunday allowing precipitation to be all rain. My guess is that a few hours of rain does occur with temps reaching the high 30's Sunday. This after 4-8 inches of snow and sleet Saturday night. After it turns dramatically colder by Monday morning, the frozen conglomeration on the ground will just be another foundation layer.
After a mostly dry and chilly Monday, clouds will advance back into the state Tuesday and moisture from the approaching clipper system will begin falling as snow during the afternoon. Still some mixed indications from the model on where the best plume of limited moisture sets up Tuesday but my guess is that it is south of MRG. The storm will eventually gather some strength but in all likelihood this will occur a few hours too late. What we should see is a nice combination of Lake Champlain induced and terrain induced snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. The contributions of both the clipper system and the lake/terrain induced snows should amount to another 4-8 inches. This snow will be much fluffier than the concrete underneath. It will turn brutally cold late Wednesday with temperatures falling to sub -10 Thursday morning. Temperatures will moderate a little by Friday afternoon (perhaps back into the teens) before another clipper provides another refreshing dose of light snow prior to the weekend of the 10th and 11th.
In the prior post we discussed the expected "softening" of the pattern which is expected to occur after Jan 10. There is little doubt that this will happen but I've become more confident of a productive softening. We lose the support of the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation and much of the high latitude blocking is expected to vanish. Still, there remains support to keep the mean ridge in the Jet Stream over western North America, keeping the door open for some excitement and reducing the risk of a thaw. The pattern is in fact a setup very typical in an El Nino winter. If the southern branch of the jet stream can produce a system or two, we will be off to the races for the middle of Jan.
After a mostly dry and chilly Monday, clouds will advance back into the state Tuesday and moisture from the approaching clipper system will begin falling as snow during the afternoon. Still some mixed indications from the model on where the best plume of limited moisture sets up Tuesday but my guess is that it is south of MRG. The storm will eventually gather some strength but in all likelihood this will occur a few hours too late. What we should see is a nice combination of Lake Champlain induced and terrain induced snow showers Tuesday night into Wednesday. The contributions of both the clipper system and the lake/terrain induced snows should amount to another 4-8 inches. This snow will be much fluffier than the concrete underneath. It will turn brutally cold late Wednesday with temperatures falling to sub -10 Thursday morning. Temperatures will moderate a little by Friday afternoon (perhaps back into the teens) before another clipper provides another refreshing dose of light snow prior to the weekend of the 10th and 11th.
In the prior post we discussed the expected "softening" of the pattern which is expected to occur after Jan 10. There is little doubt that this will happen but I've become more confident of a productive softening. We lose the support of the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation and much of the high latitude blocking is expected to vanish. Still, there remains support to keep the mean ridge in the Jet Stream over western North America, keeping the door open for some excitement and reducing the risk of a thaw. The pattern is in fact a setup very typical in an El Nino winter. If the southern branch of the jet stream can produce a system or two, we will be off to the races for the middle of Jan.
Thursday, January 1, 2015
Weekend storm consists of snow ice and even a little rain Sunday
I know many are waiting for the needed"refluffing" but the mountain has remained open and although the expert terrain has some technically challenging conditions, if you conquer that stuff you can about conquer to the world. I was hoping our weekend event would result in some old fashion dense "atlantic powder". We certainly have the cold air but unfortunately it does not seem in the cards. The storm will ultimately track up through the St. Lawrence Valley and thus bring it's push of mid-layer tropospheric warmth into most of Vermont by early Sunday. Still, we still should get a nice burst of moderate to heavy snow Saturday night as a healthy plume of moisture moves into New England. If all goes according to plan, the mountain could receive 3-6 inches before precipitation changes to sleet and freezing rain in the very early morning hours Sunday. Temperatures will then creep closer to the freezing mark and perhaps even exceed the freezing mark for a few hours Sunday. The ski day Sunday will therefore not be a powderfest but should have some new frozen precipitation to ski in. Overall Sunday will be a little damp and slushy before much colder weather moves in Sunday Night.
We can still look forward to a very wintry week following the mild Sunday. Monday will feature temperatures in the teen along with some snow flurries. Tuesday should then start in cold and tranquil fashion with sub-zero temps but clouds will advance into the region from a somewhat disorganized clipper system and some snow should overspread the region by the evening. If this particular system, a pure polar jet product, can get it's act together a little and have a constructive interaction with the Atlantic Coast it might provide the mountain with some significant snows. Right now though it looks like a light accumulation Tuesday night. Terrain induced snow showers and snow squalls should impact the region Wednesday. An unfrozen Lake Champlain will make a contribution as well and should allow for a burst of snow before temperatures turn extremely cold Wednesday night. By Thursday, readings will be in the -10 to -20 range along with some blustery northwest winds. The extreme cold continues through Friday morning before temperatures moderate slightly. By late Friday the next weak weather system could spread some light snow or flurries into the region.
There are some strong indications in the longer range that the pattern will "soften" following the outbreak of extreme cold late this week. This means that the polar jet will again recede and the threat for extreme cold in the period between the 10th and 20th of January is minimal. Does this mean another thaw however ? There have been a few hints of here and there but no resounding indications as of yet. With the help of the southern branch of the jet and even small amounts of arctic or even just Canadian air, a soft January pattern can be productive. We are not expecting a huge tightening of the jet stream in the Pacific and although the NAO is unlikely to provide much cooperation during the middle of the month, there are also signals of some ridging along the west coast. This would help keep the overall pattern "honest" for January as opposed to an all out thaw. The key in my view is the southern branch. We need some help from this segment of the jet stream which has quieted a little in the last week to 10 days and should remain quiet through our upcoming cold week.
We can still look forward to a very wintry week following the mild Sunday. Monday will feature temperatures in the teen along with some snow flurries. Tuesday should then start in cold and tranquil fashion with sub-zero temps but clouds will advance into the region from a somewhat disorganized clipper system and some snow should overspread the region by the evening. If this particular system, a pure polar jet product, can get it's act together a little and have a constructive interaction with the Atlantic Coast it might provide the mountain with some significant snows. Right now though it looks like a light accumulation Tuesday night. Terrain induced snow showers and snow squalls should impact the region Wednesday. An unfrozen Lake Champlain will make a contribution as well and should allow for a burst of snow before temperatures turn extremely cold Wednesday night. By Thursday, readings will be in the -10 to -20 range along with some blustery northwest winds. The extreme cold continues through Friday morning before temperatures moderate slightly. By late Friday the next weak weather system could spread some light snow or flurries into the region.
There are some strong indications in the longer range that the pattern will "soften" following the outbreak of extreme cold late this week. This means that the polar jet will again recede and the threat for extreme cold in the period between the 10th and 20th of January is minimal. Does this mean another thaw however ? There have been a few hints of here and there but no resounding indications as of yet. With the help of the southern branch of the jet and even small amounts of arctic or even just Canadian air, a soft January pattern can be productive. We are not expecting a huge tightening of the jet stream in the Pacific and although the NAO is unlikely to provide much cooperation during the middle of the month, there are also signals of some ridging along the west coast. This would help keep the overall pattern "honest" for January as opposed to an all out thaw. The key in my view is the southern branch. We need some help from this segment of the jet stream which has quieted a little in the last week to 10 days and should remain quiet through our upcoming cold week.
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