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Thursday, January 8, 2015

Lots of light snow over the next 4 days, big storm for late next week is still possible but not likely

Not much new to report either in the short range where we're still expecting a small dose of snow and in the longer range, specifically in the days before and during the MLK holiday weekend when we may or may not get impacted by a storm.

The clipper system is rotating through the Great Lakes quite quickly. It will spread it's snow into Vermont by early Friday. The snow will be fluffy and won't be particularly heavy but could accumulate 2-4 inches on the hill. A nice reinforcing blast of chill then arrives on Saturday and there is the weakest of impulses within the polar jet which will help guide lake effect moisture and some added Lake Champlain moisture on to the mountain. This might allow for another inch or two Saturday. All very much needed and appreciated. Saturday's set-up is unique and I wouldn't be surprised if someone gets lucky and surprises with 5-plus inches. It will continue to be on the chilly side through Saturday though not as cold as what it was Thursday.  Expect temperatures to sneak into the 20's Friday and remain in the teens Saturday

On Sunday, temperatures will moderate out of the bone chilling cold. This means that much of interior New England will become enveloped by warm advection. This can mean some overrunning snows though models disagree on how much of that we might receive late Sunday into Monday. At the very least however we should get another small dose (1-3 inches) by late in the day Monday. The information today suggests we dry out for Tuesday and Wednesday as chilly yet not brutally cold air settles into the region.

It would be very nice if we could successfully spin up this pre-MLK day storm. There is lots of baroclinicity across the southeast. This means a healthy clashing of airmasses and lots of frontogenetics. And the preceding two sentences has way too many ridiculously long words (sorry about that). As this is happening the pattern is expected to amplify and do so thanks to a noticeable southern branch feature. The Euro on Wednesday produced a beautiful looking storm out of all these ingredients but we have yet to see any consistency in the output or support from some of the other medium range simulation. At this point a big hit for Vermont is probably less than 50 percent but I think a hit for somewhere in New England is greater than 50 percent.

The polar jet recedes further for the holiday weekend and temperatures will slowly but noticeably moderate. We could begin seeing some above-freezing temperatures toward the end of the holiday weekend and especially by the 20th of the month. This doesn't necessarily mean a catastrophic thaw but it does mean a series of above average temperature days. The southern branch of the jet is expected to remain active and could produce another significant precipitation producer around the time of Jan 21.

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