Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Snowfall only expected in small increments in the coming week

Although the region has been one of the few across the country to maintain some snow through the recent two weeks, we are in some serious need of some new snow. We have a little coming our way and there are hints of a few possibilities out on the horizon but nothing of huge significance through the upcoming weekend. The clipper system we had hoped would deposit a few inches on the region moved well to the south and brought snow to Washington DC (I don't like it when they get snow and we don't !). Still there is another disturbance moving quickly through the polar jet and we should see a quick burst of some snowfall with the added terrain and Lake Champlain enhancement. It won't amount to more than 1-3 inches before brutally cold weather settles on the mountain later Wednesday and persisting through early Friday.

Another clipper should then impact the region during the day Friday. The polar jet will be lifting a bit at this point allowing some of this system's moisture to take more direct aim at the region. This is another very benign system so I would be hesitant to say anything more than 2-4 inches but these little nickle and dimers should help soften the mountain up a little. The rest of the weekend will be primarily dry and relatively seasonable. This means single digits for lows, 20's for high's and not too much in the way of wind.

Still expecting the pattern to soften next week. The polar jet will recede but the upper ridge in the jet stream will remain in the west. This could have been a very interesting week if the southern branch of the jet stream came out to play but there are simply no indications of this yet. There is another clipper system Monday and a possible jet amplification late in the week. This particular period, Jan 14-16, still looks intriguing but we need to get some moisture from somewhere and models are just not showing it right now. I am keeping my fingers crossed and still think we could see some changes, especially considering how inaccurate some of the medium range computer simulations have been beyond 10 days.

Speaking of that, we can take an early look at the MLK holiday weekend. Right now I can't promise much help from any of the teleconnection indices and the upper ridge across the west is expected to dissapate somewhat. This allowing the ensembles to show a very warm signal between the 19th and 22nd of the month. The only saving grace is the indication of some long awaited help from the southern branch of the jet stream, but unless some of these fundamentals turn around we will be lacking for cold air. Again, models have struggled this year beyond 10 days so I would expect opinions to evolve over time. 

No comments: