The Valentines Day Blizzard was the strongest winter storm to impact the region this season without question but the runner-up may be the upcoming March 2nd to 5th event. This is an entirely different beast but the news with this system is mostly positive since above all, its effects will be felt beginning Friday and persist into Monday or perhaps even Tuesday of next week. This is the second in a succession of huge winter storms for the Upper Midwest, an area which has been snow starved most of this decade. Usually, systems which strike the Midwest hard with snow bring a combination of snow and ice to Vermont and New Hampshire and the forecast challenge becomes predicting all of the precipitation types, amounts and the timing of all precipitation changes.
Storm details - 6-10 inches of powder for first tracks Friday
As the storm continues toward the eastern Great Lakes and brings a push of warmer temperatures with it, a second low pressure area will form near Long Island and re-concentrate the heaviest precipitation over Northern New England. More importantly, this second low will prevent some of the warmer temperatures from invading MRG and changing precipitation to freezing rain and rain. So here are the specifics as best as I can see. Snow will develop at MRG within a few hours of midnight Friday and quickly become moderate to heavy in the pre-dawn hours. Based on some of the latest higher resolution model data, a quick 6-10 inches of powder is likely by the time the single chair begins churning Friday morning at 9 am. This of course means some dynamite runs early in the day. Cross section profiles however show above freezing temperatures overspreading the region during the morning which would quickly change precipitation to sleet which is then indicated to continue through the duration of the ski day. Sleet although less than ideal is not terrible to ski in but can feel like needles driving in to your skin while skiing at higher speeds. Freezing rain may be less painful on your skin but I would hate to see a one inch glaze of ice atop the 3-6 feet of snow currently on the ground at MRG. This deplorable situation will be mostly avoided in northern Vermont since the above freezing layer is above 8,000 feet with well below freezing temperatures remaining in place below this layer. All in all, I think skiers will be happy with Friday's results. The heaviest precipitation is indicated to fall as snow and the icy precipitation is shown to fall as mostly sleet. Total accumulations snow/sleet by Friday evening will range between 8-14 inches. And by the way, precipitation goes back to snow Friday evening and may add a few additional inches to this total by Saturday morning.
Terrain induced snow for the weekend
What I am especially excited about is the set-up in the aftermath of Friday's precipitation. The upper low which is closely associated with the original Midwest winter storm will push slowly toward and through the region during the weekend and early next week. As a result, low level instability will increase and set the stage for a long duration terrain induced snow situation. Winds will be west-southwesterly and it will not be especially cold over the weekend. It may very well turn out to be one of those early spring situations where sunshine and near 35 degree daytime temperatures prevails in the valley locations while snow showers in the mountain locations are occasionally producing heavy snow. The highest snow totals strictly from the terrain induced snow are most likely to fall in the north but the additional snow between Saturday and Monday could very well exceed a foot at MRG and this would include significant amounts of fresh snow at first tracks time both Sunday and Monday.
Rest of next week/Telefest weekend
The terrain induced snow could very well persist through Monday Night into Tuesday since at this time a reinforcing shot of colder weather is expected to make a push into the northeast. Dry and cold weather will temporarily prevail for a time during the middle of the week before another system takes aim at the region, again threatening to bring a signficant push of warmer temperatures with it. We have stiffened our differences on two different occasions and will avoid rain in both instances but in this case (late next week) we are in hot water. The upper trough in the western provinces of Canada has been a persistent negative driver and with each passing system we are risking a bad outcome. The days leading up to telefest weekend are appear especially troublesome since both ensembles show a strong signature for zonal flow with the anomalous warmth centered over the northeast. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but we may be forced hope to minimize the damage. Such a task is feasible if the warm weather is accompanied by sunshine and minimal rain and the jury on that is still out.
Is this it for winter ?
Actually, I think winter still has something left. I am still watching the Arctic Oscillation carefully and although it is forecast to go positive briefly it may not remain as such. For much of the country this may not mean much but I do think the weather remains interchangeable or more specifically, I don't think that any warm weather late next week or on Telefest weekend is permanent across the North Country. Unfortunately the pattern looks something short of sustained cold and snowy which simply means that after March 8th, we may have to look individually for the warm and sunny or occasionally snowy days. Remember the healthy MRG base when combined with the warm weather is a nice and welcomed combination late in the season.
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Monday, February 26, 2007
Some good news to report for early March
The update for the March 2nd to March 5th period is a positive (mostly) one I am happy to report. This will be the second in a succession of juicy systems to exit the Rockies in a 5-day period. Model guidance has hinted in both cases that warmer air in the troposphere's middle layers will change precipitation to the dreaded icy mixture, particularly freezing rain. In the first case, the system weakened and passed way to the south and we will be lucky if we squeeze out a few terrain induced inches Tuesday and Wednesday. I will take dry weather over ice any day however and we have now successfully kept the rain and ice away from MRG for 41 consecutive days dating back to the MLK day where snow changed to sleet and freezing rain for a few hours before ending. This next system is also poised to trigger a huge northward push of mid-level warmth into the region Friday threatening to end the streak. The situation however looks far better than it did a few days ago.
March 2nd - 5th details
Like its predecessor as this storm pushes east through the Midwest, a second low pressure area will try and intensify very quickly off the Atlantic Coast and act to thwart some of mid-level warming across interior New England. In this case the task will prove to be a bit more difficult unfortunately since this system will track farther north effectively bringing both the moisture and some of the warmer temperatures at the surface and aloft to Stark Mountain and MRG. It is a very close call at this time and the outcome could go either way. At this time it looks as if precipitation would develop Thursday Night into Friday morning as snow then change to a mixture of mostly sleet and perhaps some freezing rain. The American Model would suggest a better outcome with more snow and less ice out of this initial batch of precipitation. The European however has taken the American to the cleaners all winter in the 3-5 day period and is suggesting a warmer less snow more ice outcome out of Friday's precipitation. I am not sure what to think about the disagreement, I know its a critical one but we will have to iron out these differences on Wednesday with a subsequent update. There is some good news in that even the worst case scenario does not include a lot of freezing rain. The real good news is that some of the good dynamics associated with this fairly intense system will settle near the region during the weekend and for a good part of the first full week in March. This could very well mean some hefty terrain induce snow amounts beginning on Saturday and persisting through Tuesday March 6th. In summary, whether sleet/freezing rain falls at MRG or no on Friday, the next week appears very promising as far as skiing goes.
Nothing new in the longer range
I have nothing new to report as far as the longer range is concerned. Indications are that much of the country will see spring-like temperatures in a week to ten days. Across interior New England, it will be a mix of warmer than average and colder than average temperatures.
March 2nd - 5th details
Like its predecessor as this storm pushes east through the Midwest, a second low pressure area will try and intensify very quickly off the Atlantic Coast and act to thwart some of mid-level warming across interior New England. In this case the task will prove to be a bit more difficult unfortunately since this system will track farther north effectively bringing both the moisture and some of the warmer temperatures at the surface and aloft to Stark Mountain and MRG. It is a very close call at this time and the outcome could go either way. At this time it looks as if precipitation would develop Thursday Night into Friday morning as snow then change to a mixture of mostly sleet and perhaps some freezing rain. The American Model would suggest a better outcome with more snow and less ice out of this initial batch of precipitation. The European however has taken the American to the cleaners all winter in the 3-5 day period and is suggesting a warmer less snow more ice outcome out of Friday's precipitation. I am not sure what to think about the disagreement, I know its a critical one but we will have to iron out these differences on Wednesday with a subsequent update. There is some good news in that even the worst case scenario does not include a lot of freezing rain. The real good news is that some of the good dynamics associated with this fairly intense system will settle near the region during the weekend and for a good part of the first full week in March. This could very well mean some hefty terrain induce snow amounts beginning on Saturday and persisting through Tuesday March 6th. In summary, whether sleet/freezing rain falls at MRG or no on Friday, the next week appears very promising as far as skiing goes.
Nothing new in the longer range
I have nothing new to report as far as the longer range is concerned. Indications are that much of the country will see spring-like temperatures in a week to ten days. Across interior New England, it will be a mix of warmer than average and colder than average temperatures.
Friday, February 23, 2007
February to end without one drop of rain or ice, March is up for grabs
No ice or rain early next week but although one battle appears won another will need to be fought between the 2nd and 4th of March. As I mentioned in previous posts, we already have one unfavorable force driving the weather pattern which is the general troughing across western North America or the negative PNA, but by early March more teleconnection indicators will turn against us and may have us on our heals by the first full week of the month. I am not at all calling the situation dire as we may yet find ways to fend off most of the trouble through even March 10th, but ominous it remains.
A mainly dry weekend
The airmass this weekend will keep temperatures below freezing, but it is a very stable one. As a result, terrain enhanced snow will be kept to a minimum Friday Night and Saturday and any clouds Sunday will of the high variety and non-snowfall producing. The high winds Friday will diminish somewhat by Saturday and completely by Sunday. Temperatures meanwhile will climb close to 20 Saturday and well into the 20's by Sunday.
Early next week
The situation for early next week has now come full circle. Downstream blocking in the jet stream is now going to suppress much of the moisture from the storm which, not more than a few days ago, was predicted by many models to produce ice and even rain for MRG. This storm is a strong one as it moves out of the Rockies today but the system will mature too quickly and begin to lose steam as it advances into the Ohio Valley. A second low is expected along the Atlantic Coast and spread precipitation into New Jersey or southern New England Sunday night or Monday but this moisture is not expected to make its way farther north. Eventually as the storms original upper level support moves into the northeast, chances for snowfall increase, particularly in the high country. If this occurs, it will not do so until late Monday or Tuesday and we will have to hope that some lingering moisture is there to be had. The chances for any new snow from this "upper level support" continue into Wednesday before high pressure dries it out.
The move into March
I have gotten a lot of emails about early March and for good reason. Typically it is a great time to ski MRG since the base usually peaks in the first two weeks of the month. Using the Mt. Mansfield snow stick as a reference, we look to be in fairly good shape going into March 2007 (above normal base) but things can turn in either direction in a big hurry depending on whatever weather decides to prevail. The events of March 2nd to 4th appear to be one very important "up for grabs" situation. If you type the Waitsfield (05673) zipcode into weather.com you will get a 10 day forecast which advertises rain/snow showers for Friday the 2nd and plain rain showers for Saturday the March 3rd which hardly does justice to the scope of the event. Weather.com 10-day forecasts are derived from The Weather Channel extended maps which are in turn derived from a computer algorithm which takes actual model data and spits out 2-4 word weather answer for the day. It's an impressive process actually that a good friend of mine from college helped to develop and continue to develop. One of the reasons for the blog was to help us skiing enthusiasts dig a little deeper for answers since 2-4 word answers rarely give us the detail we would like to see or an accurate possibility range. The storm late next week could actually turn out to be an intense one and at this time models are suggesting it tracks anywhere between the St Lawrence Valley (ugh !) and the southern New England Coast (better !). The St. Lawrence Valley track would mean ice, perhaps even rain while a track farther south could produce signficant amounts of new snow. The downstream blocking which played a key role in shunting the Monday-Tuesday event southward will shift west and take-up most of the northern Province of Quebec by this time (The NAO is therefore expected to turn slightly positive). I am hoping, even praying that the storm will simply undercut the blocking in Quebec and therefore turn into the snow producer we would all love it to become. I actually do think this occurs to some degree but can't rule out a period of icy precipitation Friday or Saturday as our worst case. Even this worst case would mean a turn to accumulating snow during the weekend.
General thoughts on the pattern in early March
After watching the ensemble data over the last few days I have decided that much of the country will see mild, spring-like above normal temperaures for the first full week in March (March 4th -11th). The exception to this will be the Rockies where a trough will amplify bringing snow to many ski areas there and northern New England which will sit on the southern fringe of colder weather which is expected to remain across Canada. I say this because there are high lattitude blocking mechanisms but barring a change, will be positioned in all of the wrong areas for below normal Eastern U.S. temperatures which goes along with the teleconnection indicators which will be generally unfavorable. The ensembles, warm as they may be for areas of the central and eastern U.S. south of 40 degrees north are not especially warm north of this line and are actually cold north of 50 north lattitude. I therefore think the outcome will be a battle between warm and cold over the northeast and this usually means weather of many varieties over the span of a week. More clarification on this will come next week.
The Quick Summary
One ice storm is avoided early next week, but another close call looms for the period March 2nd -4th as the weather pattern has clearly moved away from the completely favorable mode.
A mainly dry weekend
The airmass this weekend will keep temperatures below freezing, but it is a very stable one. As a result, terrain enhanced snow will be kept to a minimum Friday Night and Saturday and any clouds Sunday will of the high variety and non-snowfall producing. The high winds Friday will diminish somewhat by Saturday and completely by Sunday. Temperatures meanwhile will climb close to 20 Saturday and well into the 20's by Sunday.
Early next week
The situation for early next week has now come full circle. Downstream blocking in the jet stream is now going to suppress much of the moisture from the storm which, not more than a few days ago, was predicted by many models to produce ice and even rain for MRG. This storm is a strong one as it moves out of the Rockies today but the system will mature too quickly and begin to lose steam as it advances into the Ohio Valley. A second low is expected along the Atlantic Coast and spread precipitation into New Jersey or southern New England Sunday night or Monday but this moisture is not expected to make its way farther north. Eventually as the storms original upper level support moves into the northeast, chances for snowfall increase, particularly in the high country. If this occurs, it will not do so until late Monday or Tuesday and we will have to hope that some lingering moisture is there to be had. The chances for any new snow from this "upper level support" continue into Wednesday before high pressure dries it out.
The move into March
I have gotten a lot of emails about early March and for good reason. Typically it is a great time to ski MRG since the base usually peaks in the first two weeks of the month. Using the Mt. Mansfield snow stick as a reference, we look to be in fairly good shape going into March 2007 (above normal base) but things can turn in either direction in a big hurry depending on whatever weather decides to prevail. The events of March 2nd to 4th appear to be one very important "up for grabs" situation. If you type the Waitsfield (05673) zipcode into weather.com you will get a 10 day forecast which advertises rain/snow showers for Friday the 2nd and plain rain showers for Saturday the March 3rd which hardly does justice to the scope of the event. Weather.com 10-day forecasts are derived from The Weather Channel extended maps which are in turn derived from a computer algorithm which takes actual model data and spits out 2-4 word weather answer for the day. It's an impressive process actually that a good friend of mine from college helped to develop and continue to develop. One of the reasons for the blog was to help us skiing enthusiasts dig a little deeper for answers since 2-4 word answers rarely give us the detail we would like to see or an accurate possibility range. The storm late next week could actually turn out to be an intense one and at this time models are suggesting it tracks anywhere between the St Lawrence Valley (ugh !) and the southern New England Coast (better !). The St. Lawrence Valley track would mean ice, perhaps even rain while a track farther south could produce signficant amounts of new snow. The downstream blocking which played a key role in shunting the Monday-Tuesday event southward will shift west and take-up most of the northern Province of Quebec by this time (The NAO is therefore expected to turn slightly positive). I am hoping, even praying that the storm will simply undercut the blocking in Quebec and therefore turn into the snow producer we would all love it to become. I actually do think this occurs to some degree but can't rule out a period of icy precipitation Friday or Saturday as our worst case. Even this worst case would mean a turn to accumulating snow during the weekend.
General thoughts on the pattern in early March
After watching the ensemble data over the last few days I have decided that much of the country will see mild, spring-like above normal temperaures for the first full week in March (March 4th -11th). The exception to this will be the Rockies where a trough will amplify bringing snow to many ski areas there and northern New England which will sit on the southern fringe of colder weather which is expected to remain across Canada. I say this because there are high lattitude blocking mechanisms but barring a change, will be positioned in all of the wrong areas for below normal Eastern U.S. temperatures which goes along with the teleconnection indicators which will be generally unfavorable. The ensembles, warm as they may be for areas of the central and eastern U.S. south of 40 degrees north are not especially warm north of this line and are actually cold north of 50 north lattitude. I therefore think the outcome will be a battle between warm and cold over the northeast and this usually means weather of many varieties over the span of a week. More clarification on this will come next week.
The Quick Summary
One ice storm is avoided early next week, but another close call looms for the period March 2nd -4th as the weather pattern has clearly moved away from the completely favorable mode.
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
A real chance to save next week
Combustion has gotten the best of the first part of this week's forecast. In addition I promised an update on next week on Monday and failed to get to that. Obviously it is time to make amends with an update for the balance of the week into the weekend and an update on next week and March. I apologize for the delay (and the bust) but the good news and part of the reason for the delay was the recent purchase of a MacBook which will allow for more easier updates while traveling and in most cases skiing at MRG. More good news involves the forecast for next week which appeared threatening a few days ago, but the NAO is fighting very hard on our behalf and is turning what looked to be an ice to rain event to a very close call early next week with new snow now making up a good part of the possibility range.
An update to the busted forecast for this week
12-28 inches was the prognostication on Monday for the period Tuesday through Friday. It is clear that the prospects for the aforementioned appears in serious peril but new snowfall on Thursday and Thursday night will make up some of the ground. The culprit is a dynamically impressive clipper system which will vigorously carve a trough for the weekend in addition to the new snow. The storm will also bring new snow to Boston and the Cape, two areas which have seen amazingly little snowfall (less than 10 inches as of now for the year). As far as MRG is concerned we are on the northern edge of this rapidly digging system and although the dynamics appear impressive, moisture will be somewhat limited until this storm makes it to the coast. Snow will begin late in the day Thursday and continue through much of the night. It will be enough to re-freshen conditions but will amount to 5 inches or less (2-5 lets say) by first tracks time Friday. Models are hinting at some additional terrain enhanced snow late Friday into early Saturday but the unstable layer appears very shallow during this period based on forecast soundings making the prospects for significant snowfall in this time frame very low. If we do get some light snow Friday night and early Saturday, my guess is that it amounts to less than 2 inches but we will see. The rest of the weekend meanwhile will be dry. Sunshine should make an appearance at least late in the day Saturday although it will be chilly and blustery with high temperatures in the teens. Clouds will overspread the region again Sunday although it will not be as cold with temperatures climbing well into the 20's.
And finally for early next week...
A few days ago, ensemble data was indicating trouble, trouble and trouble for early next week. I reflected this concern in the last post on Monday although failed to expand on this as promised (again I apologize). The models themselves have been a lot more willy nilly and have generally failed at giving us any conclusive solution for early next week until today although there were plenty of runs showing ice and rain before a return to colder weather. In spite of the western trough which has materialized as expected, the forcing of the AO and NAO, both of which are negative, are making it extremely difficult for systems in the Rockies to take the nauseating St Lawrence Valley route to the maritimes. Instead, the systems try to cut north then re-form off the Atlantic coast thus choking off attempts to get warm air into the region. In the end what looked like trouble turns into more new snow which is amazing. We are not totally out of the woods here since the threat of mid-level warming still exists which would thus change any snow to sleet or ice for a time. The just released European however hammers home the point that much of the precipitation early next week is indeed snow which according to this solution would fall intermittently between Sunday night and early Wednesday. The system impacting the region has some moisture but is fairly disorganized (at least initially) so snowfall amounts are very hard to predict at this point. The moral of the story though is a positive one overall since we have a real good shot of escaping an ice or rain event early next week and instead getting at least a fresh few inches of new snow. Stay tuned for the final call on this one which should come no later than a few days hence.
And now to early March
Ensembles seem confident in the idea that the first few days in March sees a temporary weakening of the trough in the west while at the same time a not so insignificant trough amplifies across the eastern States. This is certainly some good news for late next week and into the first full weekend in March but the indicators are increasingly bearish going forward with all of the major teleconnection indicators moving to neutral or unfavorable by next weekend. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) is the most significant since its recent negative index has been a positive force on our weather and is expected to switch in sign in the next 7-10 days. In addition to that is the trough which is expected to remain in place across western Canada which will conspire with the then positive AO and become a strong force for zonal flow across much of the country around the time of March 4th. This could very well mean a thaw by the first full weekend in March over a huge span of the nation. The silver lining is that the Ensembles, though they show a warm signal for a good part of the nation in this time frame, are not especially warm in New England where normal is the indication based strictly on the interpretation of jet stream anomalies. We will see how it evolves over time but I am certainly less than thrilled with how the first full week in March (4th-11th) appears. With that said extending this period of great ski weather to the first full weekend in March is certainly a bonus and the active weather pattern should continue until then which will mean the chance for another storm during or just prior to the weekend of the (3rd and 4th).
The Quick Summary
In spite of the lack of new snow over the last few days, some is expected late Thursday. Good news for early next week with a real possibility of escaping a possible ice storm and instead receiving new snow.
An update to the busted forecast for this week
12-28 inches was the prognostication on Monday for the period Tuesday through Friday. It is clear that the prospects for the aforementioned appears in serious peril but new snowfall on Thursday and Thursday night will make up some of the ground. The culprit is a dynamically impressive clipper system which will vigorously carve a trough for the weekend in addition to the new snow. The storm will also bring new snow to Boston and the Cape, two areas which have seen amazingly little snowfall (less than 10 inches as of now for the year). As far as MRG is concerned we are on the northern edge of this rapidly digging system and although the dynamics appear impressive, moisture will be somewhat limited until this storm makes it to the coast. Snow will begin late in the day Thursday and continue through much of the night. It will be enough to re-freshen conditions but will amount to 5 inches or less (2-5 lets say) by first tracks time Friday. Models are hinting at some additional terrain enhanced snow late Friday into early Saturday but the unstable layer appears very shallow during this period based on forecast soundings making the prospects for significant snowfall in this time frame very low. If we do get some light snow Friday night and early Saturday, my guess is that it amounts to less than 2 inches but we will see. The rest of the weekend meanwhile will be dry. Sunshine should make an appearance at least late in the day Saturday although it will be chilly and blustery with high temperatures in the teens. Clouds will overspread the region again Sunday although it will not be as cold with temperatures climbing well into the 20's.
And finally for early next week...
A few days ago, ensemble data was indicating trouble, trouble and trouble for early next week. I reflected this concern in the last post on Monday although failed to expand on this as promised (again I apologize). The models themselves have been a lot more willy nilly and have generally failed at giving us any conclusive solution for early next week until today although there were plenty of runs showing ice and rain before a return to colder weather. In spite of the western trough which has materialized as expected, the forcing of the AO and NAO, both of which are negative, are making it extremely difficult for systems in the Rockies to take the nauseating St Lawrence Valley route to the maritimes. Instead, the systems try to cut north then re-form off the Atlantic coast thus choking off attempts to get warm air into the region. In the end what looked like trouble turns into more new snow which is amazing. We are not totally out of the woods here since the threat of mid-level warming still exists which would thus change any snow to sleet or ice for a time. The just released European however hammers home the point that much of the precipitation early next week is indeed snow which according to this solution would fall intermittently between Sunday night and early Wednesday. The system impacting the region has some moisture but is fairly disorganized (at least initially) so snowfall amounts are very hard to predict at this point. The moral of the story though is a positive one overall since we have a real good shot of escaping an ice or rain event early next week and instead getting at least a fresh few inches of new snow. Stay tuned for the final call on this one which should come no later than a few days hence.
And now to early March
Ensembles seem confident in the idea that the first few days in March sees a temporary weakening of the trough in the west while at the same time a not so insignificant trough amplifies across the eastern States. This is certainly some good news for late next week and into the first full weekend in March but the indicators are increasingly bearish going forward with all of the major teleconnection indicators moving to neutral or unfavorable by next weekend. The AO (Arctic Oscillation) is the most significant since its recent negative index has been a positive force on our weather and is expected to switch in sign in the next 7-10 days. In addition to that is the trough which is expected to remain in place across western Canada which will conspire with the then positive AO and become a strong force for zonal flow across much of the country around the time of March 4th. This could very well mean a thaw by the first full weekend in March over a huge span of the nation. The silver lining is that the Ensembles, though they show a warm signal for a good part of the nation in this time frame, are not especially warm in New England where normal is the indication based strictly on the interpretation of jet stream anomalies. We will see how it evolves over time but I am certainly less than thrilled with how the first full week in March (4th-11th) appears. With that said extending this period of great ski weather to the first full weekend in March is certainly a bonus and the active weather pattern should continue until then which will mean the chance for another storm during or just prior to the weekend of the (3rd and 4th).
The Quick Summary
In spite of the lack of new snow over the last few days, some is expected late Thursday. Good news for early next week with a real possibility of escaping a possible ice storm and instead receiving new snow.
Monday, February 19, 2007
NAO turns this week to gold, next week more of a challenge
Some of the disconcerting changes occurring in the west are going to have a large impact the coverage of below normal temperatures in eastern North America which has managed to survive for several consecutive weeks. With the below normal cold relinquishing its grip, we need to stiffen our defenses and come up with a way protect our base if not add to it. As if on queue, the NAO driven by a strengthening ridge over Greenland will help the already negative AO to help turn what could have been a late February thaw into winter wonderland full of powder days and below freezing temperatures. Although I have never been able to alter the weather outcome, I dialed 911 for this one and it felt as if I got a response. As good as it will be this week, trouble looms for early next week and will need more last minute assistance if not a magic act to avoid what looks to be an ice/rain event.
Powder days - We just can't get enough
2005 produced a golden period of skiing beginning in mid-February and lasting through about mid-march but it has been awhile since I remember the stars aligning so favorably for president's week. MRG more or less doubled its seasonal snowfall in the two weeks leading up to the holiday and now we watch as the clipper train nears the station. Two clipper systems this week will ensure at least 2 powder days in the period beginning Tuesday and ending Friday and if were lucky we'll get three. Snow from the first clipper system will arrive early Tuesday morning and will persist through much of the day albeit light. This first system is a weak one but is also a two part series with additional moisture arriving Tuesday night bringing more new snow by first tracks time on Wednesday. Snow from the clipper "hybrid" will be over with during the day Wednesday and any snow Wednesday night into early Thursday will be of the terrain induced variety. Then its the next clipper which will bring a burst of snow Thursday evening into early Friday. This system is more potent dynamically but less so from the standpoint of moisture. It will nonetheless snow, enough to produce another powder day for Friday and thus finishing off one heck of a week for us. Since it is a holiday week with many planning to ski lets have fun with some snowfall predictions. This endeavor requires the "subject to bust" disclaimer but I can limit the damage somewhat by giving a healthy range.
New Snowfall....
By first tracks Tuesday 1-3 inches (an additional 1-3 during the day)
By first tracks Wednesday 3-6 inches (an additional 1-3 during the day)
By first tracks Thursday 1-3 (flurries during the day)
By first tracks Friday 4-7 (an additional 1-3 during the day).
This adds up to 12-28 inches over a 4 day period. Thank you NAO !!!
The upcoming weekend looks especially dry in fact with temperatures running at or slightly below normal. Normal temperatures during the last weekend of February are in the middle 20's on the mountain and low temperatures are near 10. If ice or rain is our fate for early next week, it might be a good time to get out make those turns in the woods before we get that hard crust.
I'll have the full update on next week later today. Enjoy the powder.
Powder days - We just can't get enough
2005 produced a golden period of skiing beginning in mid-February and lasting through about mid-march but it has been awhile since I remember the stars aligning so favorably for president's week. MRG more or less doubled its seasonal snowfall in the two weeks leading up to the holiday and now we watch as the clipper train nears the station. Two clipper systems this week will ensure at least 2 powder days in the period beginning Tuesday and ending Friday and if were lucky we'll get three. Snow from the first clipper system will arrive early Tuesday morning and will persist through much of the day albeit light. This first system is a weak one but is also a two part series with additional moisture arriving Tuesday night bringing more new snow by first tracks time on Wednesday. Snow from the clipper "hybrid" will be over with during the day Wednesday and any snow Wednesday night into early Thursday will be of the terrain induced variety. Then its the next clipper which will bring a burst of snow Thursday evening into early Friday. This system is more potent dynamically but less so from the standpoint of moisture. It will nonetheless snow, enough to produce another powder day for Friday and thus finishing off one heck of a week for us. Since it is a holiday week with many planning to ski lets have fun with some snowfall predictions. This endeavor requires the "subject to bust" disclaimer but I can limit the damage somewhat by giving a healthy range.
New Snowfall....
By first tracks Tuesday 1-3 inches (an additional 1-3 during the day)
By first tracks Wednesday 3-6 inches (an additional 1-3 during the day)
By first tracks Thursday 1-3 (flurries during the day)
By first tracks Friday 4-7 (an additional 1-3 during the day).
This adds up to 12-28 inches over a 4 day period. Thank you NAO !!!
The upcoming weekend looks especially dry in fact with temperatures running at or slightly below normal. Normal temperatures during the last weekend of February are in the middle 20's on the mountain and low temperatures are near 10. If ice or rain is our fate for early next week, it might be a good time to get out make those turns in the woods before we get that hard crust.
I'll have the full update on next week later today. Enjoy the powder.
Thursday, February 15, 2007
President's Holiday greatness and then a pattern shift
The public information statement from the National Weather Service in Burlington will have storm totals from around the region if anybody is interested. Many reports will come from valley locations, the higher terrain including ski country did even better.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/BTV/PNSBTV
We have now officially erased what was the equivalent of a 20 point deficit in a basketball game and hold a lead as we proceed to crunch time. It has taken 32 consecutive days of below freezing temperatures at MRG, several small storms and then one very big one to complete the deal but we now have established an above normal base leading into President's day holiday. Give mother nature a pat on the back but we don't want her to get complacent. After a glorious weekend with additional chances for fresh powder there are forecast challenges and shades of grey by the time we reach the last weekend in February.
Memorable Presidents Day holiday - very cold however for Monday
It will be cold and blustery through Friday with temperatures on the mountain struggling to make it past 10. Saturday should see some moderation as temps climb into the teen with less winds. Skiing in powder is a great way to stay warm over the next few days and terrain induced snow beginning late Thursday will add to the almost 70 inches of snow which has fallen at MRG in the last week. If i try to get too specific about what is going to fall and when I will surely confuse everyone and bust all at the same time. Lets just say that in the time frame beginning Thursday evening and ending Saturday morning we could see an additional 4-10 inches with the wide ride range accounting not only for uncertainty but also elevation on the mountain. At some point on Saturday a break in the snow is likely as clipper passes well to our south and acts to stablilize the lowest 8,000 feet of the atmosphere. Once the clipper clears the east coast Sunday it will allow another impulse to take aim on the region late Sunday which could bring a burst of terrain enhanced snow and another 5-10 inches by Monday morning. Although a powder day appears very likely on Monday, it will be windy and very cold with temperatures at least 10 below in the morning and struggling to make it above zero during the afternoon. So in summary, we have new snow predicted for lift opening on 3 out of the 4 days between Friday and Monday. Friday and Monday are cold and blustery, Saturday and Sunday are not as cold.
A new pattern to emerge
As next week progresses, the pattern across the entire U.S. will to begin to respond to the pronounced changes across western North America. The ridge over B.C. which triggered the intense cold across the Midwest and East Coast will be replaced by a large trough. Western ski resorts from California to Colorado will surely have a lot to brag about by the last weekend in February. We, on the other hand have to start playing defense because troughing in the west means there will be a real driving force to push warm air northward over the East and Midwest. Is there some good news here ? Yes. This pattern change is not being driven by the AO index which is expected to stay on the negative side of zero over the next two weeks. Ridging across Greenland will also help to counteract any warm-up. This is distinctly different to the situation in early December when every possible indicator was saying warm and snow-less for weeks on end. Additional help comes from the cold Great Lakes. All 5 have some ice on them and Lake Erie is now completely frozen. A broad area of snow cover also helps although the snow cover now is not all that unusual for this time of the year.
The forecast for next week - A significant temperature moderation
So here it is. Tuesday's temps will moderate significantly and there could be some warm advection light snow leading to a light accumulation. A much stronger southern branch storm will then progress eastward on Wednesday and Thursday and the concern here is that there is not much cold air left for it to work with. It may in the end turn out to be so cut off from the receding polar jet, that its impact on Vermont is minimal. If it does proceed northward and affects New England, more snow could be in the forecast but temperatures will be a lot closer to freezing. Overall I still think its a very good week to ski but we will start to notice the changes in the pattern by the middle of the week.
Rest of February
The very unsettled western U.S. is likely to send more very moist and potent systems eastward through the end of February. We are going to lean heavily on the NAO and specifically the ridging in Greenland to help prevent these systems from taking that abominable track up the St. Lawrence Valley. The positive angle here is that the region is likely to see another significant snowfall from a strong storm. The negative angle is that we are unlikely to win every battle and may have to deal with precipitation other than snow at some point before the month ends. With all that said, I am fairly optimistic and think we could make out okay over the next two week in spite of the gradual loss of our cold.
The Quick Summary
Snow, snow and more snow through Monday (President's day) . After a brutally cold Monday, a new pattern will assume control, one of less cold and frequent storms which will hopefully bring only snow.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/BTV/PNSBTV
We have now officially erased what was the equivalent of a 20 point deficit in a basketball game and hold a lead as we proceed to crunch time. It has taken 32 consecutive days of below freezing temperatures at MRG, several small storms and then one very big one to complete the deal but we now have established an above normal base leading into President's day holiday. Give mother nature a pat on the back but we don't want her to get complacent. After a glorious weekend with additional chances for fresh powder there are forecast challenges and shades of grey by the time we reach the last weekend in February.
Memorable Presidents Day holiday - very cold however for Monday
It will be cold and blustery through Friday with temperatures on the mountain struggling to make it past 10. Saturday should see some moderation as temps climb into the teen with less winds. Skiing in powder is a great way to stay warm over the next few days and terrain induced snow beginning late Thursday will add to the almost 70 inches of snow which has fallen at MRG in the last week. If i try to get too specific about what is going to fall and when I will surely confuse everyone and bust all at the same time. Lets just say that in the time frame beginning Thursday evening and ending Saturday morning we could see an additional 4-10 inches with the wide ride range accounting not only for uncertainty but also elevation on the mountain. At some point on Saturday a break in the snow is likely as clipper passes well to our south and acts to stablilize the lowest 8,000 feet of the atmosphere. Once the clipper clears the east coast Sunday it will allow another impulse to take aim on the region late Sunday which could bring a burst of terrain enhanced snow and another 5-10 inches by Monday morning. Although a powder day appears very likely on Monday, it will be windy and very cold with temperatures at least 10 below in the morning and struggling to make it above zero during the afternoon. So in summary, we have new snow predicted for lift opening on 3 out of the 4 days between Friday and Monday. Friday and Monday are cold and blustery, Saturday and Sunday are not as cold.
A new pattern to emerge
As next week progresses, the pattern across the entire U.S. will to begin to respond to the pronounced changes across western North America. The ridge over B.C. which triggered the intense cold across the Midwest and East Coast will be replaced by a large trough. Western ski resorts from California to Colorado will surely have a lot to brag about by the last weekend in February. We, on the other hand have to start playing defense because troughing in the west means there will be a real driving force to push warm air northward over the East and Midwest. Is there some good news here ? Yes. This pattern change is not being driven by the AO index which is expected to stay on the negative side of zero over the next two weeks. Ridging across Greenland will also help to counteract any warm-up. This is distinctly different to the situation in early December when every possible indicator was saying warm and snow-less for weeks on end. Additional help comes from the cold Great Lakes. All 5 have some ice on them and Lake Erie is now completely frozen. A broad area of snow cover also helps although the snow cover now is not all that unusual for this time of the year.
The forecast for next week - A significant temperature moderation
So here it is. Tuesday's temps will moderate significantly and there could be some warm advection light snow leading to a light accumulation. A much stronger southern branch storm will then progress eastward on Wednesday and Thursday and the concern here is that there is not much cold air left for it to work with. It may in the end turn out to be so cut off from the receding polar jet, that its impact on Vermont is minimal. If it does proceed northward and affects New England, more snow could be in the forecast but temperatures will be a lot closer to freezing. Overall I still think its a very good week to ski but we will start to notice the changes in the pattern by the middle of the week.
Rest of February
The very unsettled western U.S. is likely to send more very moist and potent systems eastward through the end of February. We are going to lean heavily on the NAO and specifically the ridging in Greenland to help prevent these systems from taking that abominable track up the St. Lawrence Valley. The positive angle here is that the region is likely to see another significant snowfall from a strong storm. The negative angle is that we are unlikely to win every battle and may have to deal with precipitation other than snow at some point before the month ends. With all that said, I am fairly optimistic and think we could make out okay over the next two week in spite of the gradual loss of our cold.
The Quick Summary
Snow, snow and more snow through Monday (President's day) . After a brutally cold Monday, a new pattern will assume control, one of less cold and frequent storms which will hopefully bring only snow.
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
40-50 inches !! How's that for a sweet spot
Wind driven snow will continue through about 6 am. Looks like wind's have shifted west of due north so many locations on the spine of the Green Mountains will get see snow totals enhanced because of terrain. It will be difficult to accurately measure because of drifiting but totals at MRG could approach 4 feet before first tracks time Friday. Feel free to report some storm totals tomorrow morning where ever you may be.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
