The "corn horn" was finally sounded and unfortunately the rain horn has also been sounded. After about a quarter to a half inch of rain Thursday night, the rain will move out on Friday and some partial clearing will accompany a push of colder temperatures. The last full day of March, Saturday, will start with sub-freezing temperatures and with the help of a healthy dose of sunshine, readings will climb into the 40's. A "BC bomber" then attacks from the west on Saturday night bringing clouds and some elevation sensitive rain/snow showers. Unfortunately this system is expected to track through Quebec leaving us on the warmer and less precipitous side of things. We could see a small gloppy accumulation above 2500 feet prior to Sunday morning but I don't expect a powder day Sunday. It will however be colder with temperatures again starting in the 20's and only rising into the 30's.
Now I know the updates have gotten more sparse and we are expecting some winter weather to return to the region, so my apologies for the lack of updates. Since the weekend, the intensity of the chill next week looks slightly less. Still, a very impressive area of anomalous April cold will set up shop across the middle part of North America and though its reach into New England looks a bit more tenuous, we are still .lined up for some below normal temperatures and potentially some snow. Monday appears to be a dry day with morning temperatures in the teens and afternoon readings struggling to get above freezing. After that, the first of what I think will be two significant weather producers will impact the region. With the center of the cold and supporting trough in the jet stream set up across the middle of the country, this first storm has been advertised to take a less than ideal track later Tuesday into Wednesday. This puzzle has yet to be pieced together however and even given the aforementioned scenario, we could still be looking at a period of snow turning to mixed precipitation. If we intend to get any powder however, we will need this system to track further south and not close to the Canadian border or even farther north. Colder weather will follow for Thursday and send temperatures at least partially back below freezing through Friday and then another weather system is likely to impact the region around the weekend of April 7th and 8th. We have the cold weather in place but will need the storm track to cooperate much like we need it to for the first storm on Tuesday.
Around the time of April 10th, the jet in the Pacific will tighten a bit and although some cold weather is indicated to linger across the Plains, it will likely loosen its grip on New England. Hardly a bold prediction given the time of the year, but we should expect temperatures to spend a greater percentage of time above freezing with readings reaching the 60 degree mark at least once between April 11th and 15th.
Thursday, March 29, 2018
Saturday, March 24, 2018
A few inches Saturday night keeps the winter vibe alive and after some milder weather this upcoming week, winter will make an April return
Still talking about fresh powder on March 24th and we could be continuing such discussions into April by the looks of things. Strong northerly flow at Jet Stream level typically means dry weather in Vermont and for the most part it will be in this case, but a quick moving impulse will drop down this chimney Saturday night and allow for a burst of snowfall across the high country. The snow won't last long but will accumulate 2-4 inches before ending by morning. Temperatures as I indicated, are good enough for powder - near 20 degrees.
Sunday will feature increasing amounts of blue sky and Monday will feature a total blue sky and will probably rank as one of the best visibility days of the year. Temperatures will generally stay below freezing on much of the mountain Sunday but the strong late March sunshine will help boost temperatures to within a few degrees of 40 Monday. The warming, given the time of year, was pretty imminent this upcoming week, but we've had thaws already this year that were more destructive. Readings will climb into the 40's on Tuesday and up near 50 on Wednesday, but the warmer temperatures won't be accompanied by high dewpoints or strong winds and will thus leave much of the snowpack in tact in the mountains. Rain showers late on Wednesday or Wednesday night will melt a little more snow, as will some lingering mild weather on Thursday, but the cold is returning by the weekend and new snow might very well arrive with it.
Arctic cold will be on the move southward late next week and into early April thanks to a plethora of favorable teleconnection indices, mainly a relaxed Pacific Jet stream. There are hints of a significant storm late Friday into early Saturday capable of providing a multitude of precipitation types to New England. Temperatures on Friday are likely too mild to support snow but an infusion of arctic chill could make things more interesting by Saturday March 31st. Cold, below normal temperatures will continue at a varying intensity for at least a week into April and the wintry temperatures are likely to be accompanied by some wintry weather. If we can continue to keep the subtropics involved as we have through much of the last month, be prepared for some intrigue.
Sunday will feature increasing amounts of blue sky and Monday will feature a total blue sky and will probably rank as one of the best visibility days of the year. Temperatures will generally stay below freezing on much of the mountain Sunday but the strong late March sunshine will help boost temperatures to within a few degrees of 40 Monday. The warming, given the time of year, was pretty imminent this upcoming week, but we've had thaws already this year that were more destructive. Readings will climb into the 40's on Tuesday and up near 50 on Wednesday, but the warmer temperatures won't be accompanied by high dewpoints or strong winds and will thus leave much of the snowpack in tact in the mountains. Rain showers late on Wednesday or Wednesday night will melt a little more snow, as will some lingering mild weather on Thursday, but the cold is returning by the weekend and new snow might very well arrive with it.
Arctic cold will be on the move southward late next week and into early April thanks to a plethora of favorable teleconnection indices, mainly a relaxed Pacific Jet stream. There are hints of a significant storm late Friday into early Saturday capable of providing a multitude of precipitation types to New England. Temperatures on Friday are likely too mild to support snow but an infusion of arctic chill could make things more interesting by Saturday March 31st. Cold, below normal temperatures will continue at a varying intensity for at least a week into April and the wintry temperatures are likely to be accompanied by some wintry weather. If we can continue to keep the subtropics involved as we have through much of the last month, be prepared for some intrigue.
Wednesday, March 21, 2018
Cold weather and some snow flurries through the weekend then a warm-up for next week
Another in a long list of March of 2018 winter storms has raged on the Mid_Atlantic and parts of southern New England, but this impressive system remains and will remain beneath us. This nor'easter, like the one very early this month, features a strong and closed upper low south of the Delmarva Peninsula and this consolidated much of the precipitation to the western and southern flank of the storm. We also have some very dry, cold air in place this week. Though not bulletproof, this airmass also helped shield us from the heaviest precipitation.
We still have a ton of snow on the ground; in fact, its some of the deepest late March snowpack we've seen in a while. Temperatures finally inched above the freezing mark on the lower part of mountain Wednesday, but for the most part, readings will stay below the freezing mark through the weekend with the exception of a few hours during each of the next several afternoons and really only at lower elevations. As for snow, the forecast doesn't have much. A low pressure wave will bring some wintry precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic again this weekend but this system will again follow a very southern path and stay well south of the region. This allows the aforementioned colder air to remain in place and although heavy snow is not expected, a very weak plume of moisture from the maritimes will keep Friday and Saturday on the mostly cloudy side with flurries and an occasional snow shower. Don't think we can do much better than 1-3 inches by early Sunday from all this, but its worth keeping an eye on.
I advertised another possible warm-up next week and though it looks a day or two delayed, arrive it will. Chilly overnight temperatures will continue into the early part of next week thanks to clear skies and snowcover but sunshine will boost readings toward 40 on Monday and well into the 40's Tuesday. If we don't hear it by Tuesday, the corn horn should sound on Wednesday & Thursday of next week with at least one of those days featuring 50-plus temperatures.
Winter is not done however. The EPO is really expected to crash by late in the month and will be coupled by some significant ridging in the Arctic north of Alaska. Combine all that with a possible reemergence of ridging in Greenland and it adds up to one of the best set ups for cold and wintry weather we've seen all year in eastern North America. The timing has been pushed back just slightly compared to a few days ago but we should expect a big surge of below and much below normal temperatures around April Fools Day and some accompanying snow across the Vermont high-country.
We still have a ton of snow on the ground; in fact, its some of the deepest late March snowpack we've seen in a while. Temperatures finally inched above the freezing mark on the lower part of mountain Wednesday, but for the most part, readings will stay below the freezing mark through the weekend with the exception of a few hours during each of the next several afternoons and really only at lower elevations. As for snow, the forecast doesn't have much. A low pressure wave will bring some wintry precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic again this weekend but this system will again follow a very southern path and stay well south of the region. This allows the aforementioned colder air to remain in place and although heavy snow is not expected, a very weak plume of moisture from the maritimes will keep Friday and Saturday on the mostly cloudy side with flurries and an occasional snow shower. Don't think we can do much better than 1-3 inches by early Sunday from all this, but its worth keeping an eye on.
I advertised another possible warm-up next week and though it looks a day or two delayed, arrive it will. Chilly overnight temperatures will continue into the early part of next week thanks to clear skies and snowcover but sunshine will boost readings toward 40 on Monday and well into the 40's Tuesday. If we don't hear it by Tuesday, the corn horn should sound on Wednesday & Thursday of next week with at least one of those days featuring 50-plus temperatures.
Winter is not done however. The EPO is really expected to crash by late in the month and will be coupled by some significant ridging in the Arctic north of Alaska. Combine all that with a possible reemergence of ridging in Greenland and it adds up to one of the best set ups for cold and wintry weather we've seen all year in eastern North America. The timing has been pushed back just slightly compared to a few days ago but we should expect a big surge of below and much below normal temperatures around April Fools Day and some accompanying snow across the Vermont high-country.
Sunday, March 18, 2018
Upcoming storm stays south of Vermont/MRG but cold persists for another week
Thanks to the deep snow cover and an influx of arctic air, temperatures dropped below zero Sunday morning in some sections of the state and will likely do so again by Monday morning. It's post St Patrick's Day and winter prevails and will continue to do so through this upcoming week with temperatures remaining below average and mostly below freezing. In a way of thinking, winter will prevail a little too much this week as the storm track has shifted south and will help keep the next juicy weather system well south of Vermont.
By midday Monday, the storm in question will be crossing the lower Mississippi River Valley and gathering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as it does so. The weather across New England has been a lot colder than expected 10 days ago and that is a result of substantial amounts of polar jet energy that has taken up a position over eastern sections of North America. During other polar intrusions this winter and in winters past, we can recall how much this can suppress many storms and this is no exception (though in March, sometimes all bets are off). That said, we have established some pretty good agreement that our next potential big east coast system will stay south of the Virginia tidewater with its trailing upper level support confined to the southern Appalachian Mountains. The storm will take a more northward turn Wednesday get to within 150 miles or so of Cape Cod, but unlike its predecessors, there is no mechanism in this jet stream to hold this storm in the Canadian Maritimes long enough to allow moisture to reach Vermont. The forecast has thus gotten pretty dry and includes lots of sunshine actually with the exception of a period of cloudiness Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will modify only slowly and will remain below freezing on most of the mountain through Thursday.
The weekend of the 24th and 25th again looks colder and includes mostly below freezing temperatures thanks to an expected re enforcing of the east coast trough. Milder air will be gathering some steam across the middle of the country and will begin making a push northeastward as the weekend progresses. A series of weaker weather producers will likely divide the milder air from the cold gripping New England and may produce some snowfall as they pass though its a bit early to clearly define the timing. With mid-week storm passing to our south, the weekend is likely our next chance for snow generally speaking.
The mild air is expected to continue gathering strength by the 26th and is likely to make some inroads into Vermont for at least a day prior to March 28th as the Arctic Oscillation neutralizes. Winter is probably not done however as a building ridge in western North America and Alaska will probably allow for a major push of chill around the end of the month.
By midday Monday, the storm in question will be crossing the lower Mississippi River Valley and gathering moisture from the Gulf of Mexico as it does so. The weather across New England has been a lot colder than expected 10 days ago and that is a result of substantial amounts of polar jet energy that has taken up a position over eastern sections of North America. During other polar intrusions this winter and in winters past, we can recall how much this can suppress many storms and this is no exception (though in March, sometimes all bets are off). That said, we have established some pretty good agreement that our next potential big east coast system will stay south of the Virginia tidewater with its trailing upper level support confined to the southern Appalachian Mountains. The storm will take a more northward turn Wednesday get to within 150 miles or so of Cape Cod, but unlike its predecessors, there is no mechanism in this jet stream to hold this storm in the Canadian Maritimes long enough to allow moisture to reach Vermont. The forecast has thus gotten pretty dry and includes lots of sunshine actually with the exception of a period of cloudiness Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will modify only slowly and will remain below freezing on most of the mountain through Thursday.
The weekend of the 24th and 25th again looks colder and includes mostly below freezing temperatures thanks to an expected re enforcing of the east coast trough. Milder air will be gathering some steam across the middle of the country and will begin making a push northeastward as the weekend progresses. A series of weaker weather producers will likely divide the milder air from the cold gripping New England and may produce some snowfall as they pass though its a bit early to clearly define the timing. With mid-week storm passing to our south, the weekend is likely our next chance for snow generally speaking.
The mild air is expected to continue gathering strength by the 26th and is likely to make some inroads into Vermont for at least a day prior to March 28th as the Arctic Oscillation neutralizes. Winter is probably not done however as a building ridge in western North America and Alaska will probably allow for a major push of chill around the end of the month.
Friday, March 16, 2018
January-like temperatures will keep it powdery through the weekend while next week storm is still in play but looks somewhat south of us
Half way through March of 2018, nearly 75 inches of snow has fallen across the high country surrounding the Mad River Valley. Just 15-16 days ago, one would have to climb to the summit quad at Mt Ellen just to see consistent snowcover (MRG was closed). It was a depressing state of affairs even as the pattern appeared to be improving dramatically. It was a season truly on the brink to borrow the title from the great John Feinstein book. Going into St Patrick's Day weekend, there is currently snow where there almost always isn't, cliffs that have disappeared, ice falls covered in pow and steeps and chutes that even a hack like me can navigate.
And the snow keeps falling. Flurries in the case of Friday and these will actually continue into Saturday though accumulations will be fairly minimal. As you probably have noticed, the forecast just keep getting colder. Though the snow has fallen at an amazing clip this month, temperatures are still above average ( for the month) and Friday marks the first day of substantially below normal temperatures. Saturday's readings will be colder still, hovering in the teens throughout the day with blustery northwest winds pushing the wind chill down below zero. It mostly sunny on Sunday but wintry with readings close to zero in the morning and near 20 in the afternoon. Monday looks like a repeat of Sunday.
And then on to the next storm, a sizable one, that will dump snow across the Rocky Mountains this weekend and churn its way across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. With the colder changes in the forecast, the storm track has shifted to the south and there is good agreement that the center of the storm will be somewhere between the Virginia Tidewater and Cape Hatteras by Tuesday evening. The setup with this event appears a bit different than our recent one. Though some blocking in the jet stream has defied some expectations and will persist through the weekend and into early next week, it is expected to subside during the middle of the week, allowing the storm to have an "escape hatch" as opposed to getting hung up in the Maritimes like its two predecessors. At least that's how it looks right now. It appears like we could grab a few inches from this even in the current setup but we'll likely need the storm to track further north than models currently have for another big snow producer. This is not a big ask, so lets just see how this all looks in another day or two.
Meanwhile, temperatures will gradually modify during the week but remain mostly below freezing on the mountain through the end of the week. The period beginning Sunday March 25th and ending sometime early in the following week appears to be the time frame where a good push of spring-like temperatures could reach the region. Something similar was shown for St Patrick's day weekend about 10 days ago and we can all see how well that worked out. In addition, the warm-up is not likely to last even if it were to happen, as the ensembles are showing a nice looking positive PNA structure in the jet stream by the 27th or 28th of March. This will promote another southward push of cold temperatures that would essentially take us to the end of the month.
And the snow keeps falling. Flurries in the case of Friday and these will actually continue into Saturday though accumulations will be fairly minimal. As you probably have noticed, the forecast just keep getting colder. Though the snow has fallen at an amazing clip this month, temperatures are still above average ( for the month) and Friday marks the first day of substantially below normal temperatures. Saturday's readings will be colder still, hovering in the teens throughout the day with blustery northwest winds pushing the wind chill down below zero. It mostly sunny on Sunday but wintry with readings close to zero in the morning and near 20 in the afternoon. Monday looks like a repeat of Sunday.
And then on to the next storm, a sizable one, that will dump snow across the Rocky Mountains this weekend and churn its way across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. With the colder changes in the forecast, the storm track has shifted to the south and there is good agreement that the center of the storm will be somewhere between the Virginia Tidewater and Cape Hatteras by Tuesday evening. The setup with this event appears a bit different than our recent one. Though some blocking in the jet stream has defied some expectations and will persist through the weekend and into early next week, it is expected to subside during the middle of the week, allowing the storm to have an "escape hatch" as opposed to getting hung up in the Maritimes like its two predecessors. At least that's how it looks right now. It appears like we could grab a few inches from this even in the current setup but we'll likely need the storm to track further north than models currently have for another big snow producer. This is not a big ask, so lets just see how this all looks in another day or two.
Meanwhile, temperatures will gradually modify during the week but remain mostly below freezing on the mountain through the end of the week. The period beginning Sunday March 25th and ending sometime early in the following week appears to be the time frame where a good push of spring-like temperatures could reach the region. Something similar was shown for St Patrick's day weekend about 10 days ago and we can all see how well that worked out. In addition, the warm-up is not likely to last even if it were to happen, as the ensembles are showing a nice looking positive PNA structure in the jet stream by the 27th or 28th of March. This will promote another southward push of cold temperatures that would essentially take us to the end of the month.
Tuesday, March 13, 2018
Very snowy in the short term and much colder this weekend
It's March 13th, do you know where your big storm is ? In the case of 2018, about 100 miles southeast of Cape Cod as of midday Tuesday, moving methodically north-northeast. As expected, the storm will turn northward, passing over Nova Scotia/New Brunswick and get hung up a across the Maritimes. Though the southern part of Vermont will see some intense snowfall rates for a time on Tuesday, much of the state will miss the most intense snow bands; instead, seeing mostly steady but lighter snow throughout the afternoon and evening. Nonetheless, northern Vermont appears to be the pivot point (or pivot line) for some of the best moisture as the storm slows its forward progress on Wednesday. Though snowfall rates are not expected to be intense, they will be continuous over the high country, especially from Sugarbush northward and persist through Wednesday, Wednesday night and into Thursday before tapering to flurries sometime during the day. This is an awesome set up for the high country in northern Vermont which should perform exceptionally well particularly Wednesday and Wednesday night with the added effects of upslope . Here is a breakdown of expected snow totals for the aforementioned high elevations.
Tuesday: 5-7" (More in southern Vermont)
Tuesday Night: 3-6"
Wednesday: 4-8" (More in far northern Vermont)
Wednesday Night: 3-6" (More in far northern Vermont)
Thursday: 1-3" (More in far northern Vermont
Total Snow over 3 days: 16-30 inches
Temperatures will remain in the lower and middle 20's through (Thursday) along with rather stiff northwest winds though nothing especially intense. The snowfall will have more of a convective element to it on Wednesday/Wednesday Night into Thursday bringing the fluff factor into play and making it some of the best powder of the year to ski in.
The forecast for Friday and into the weekend and chilled down quite dramatically which eliminates any idea of thawing this weekend. Medium range models basically missed a fairly significant impulse which will help reenforce the eastern trough this weekend and actually bring the first significant round of below normal temperatures to the region in quite some time (The month as a whole is still 5 above normal from a temperature standpoint). Flurries and a few snow showers will also continue on Friday, subside somewhat Saturday and Sunday though remain possible. What a dramatic turn on temperatures though. Teens for lows and 20's for highs on the mountain accompanied by wind chill. Quite wintry indeed.
This wintry theme will continue into early next week. Monday appears dry with temperatures as low as the single numbers during the morning and 20's during the afternoon. Another jet amplification is still indicated for the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame although the colder change in the forecast has also corresponded with a storm track that appears farther south. In spite of this, the possibility of a major east coast storm remains and situation will bear watching for several days especially given the reemergence of blocking in the jet stream across Greenland and the Davis Strait.
Much of this blocking is expected to continue through next week before subsiding by March 24th or so. The substantially negative Arctic Oscillation which has largely been responsible for the southward shifted storm track this month is also expected to subside. Looseness in the Pacific Jet is expected to continue however and should allow colder temperatures to continue to prevail across much of the mid-latitudes of North America through most of the rest of March.
Tuesday: 5-7" (More in southern Vermont)
Tuesday Night: 3-6"
Wednesday: 4-8" (More in far northern Vermont)
Wednesday Night: 3-6" (More in far northern Vermont)
Thursday: 1-3" (More in far northern Vermont
Total Snow over 3 days: 16-30 inches
Temperatures will remain in the lower and middle 20's through (Thursday) along with rather stiff northwest winds though nothing especially intense. The snowfall will have more of a convective element to it on Wednesday/Wednesday Night into Thursday bringing the fluff factor into play and making it some of the best powder of the year to ski in.
The forecast for Friday and into the weekend and chilled down quite dramatically which eliminates any idea of thawing this weekend. Medium range models basically missed a fairly significant impulse which will help reenforce the eastern trough this weekend and actually bring the first significant round of below normal temperatures to the region in quite some time (The month as a whole is still 5 above normal from a temperature standpoint). Flurries and a few snow showers will also continue on Friday, subside somewhat Saturday and Sunday though remain possible. What a dramatic turn on temperatures though. Teens for lows and 20's for highs on the mountain accompanied by wind chill. Quite wintry indeed.
This wintry theme will continue into early next week. Monday appears dry with temperatures as low as the single numbers during the morning and 20's during the afternoon. Another jet amplification is still indicated for the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame although the colder change in the forecast has also corresponded with a storm track that appears farther south. In spite of this, the possibility of a major east coast storm remains and situation will bear watching for several days especially given the reemergence of blocking in the jet stream across Greenland and the Davis Strait.
Much of this blocking is expected to continue through next week before subsiding by March 24th or so. The substantially negative Arctic Oscillation which has largely been responsible for the southward shifted storm track this month is also expected to subside. Looseness in the Pacific Jet is expected to continue however and should allow colder temperatures to continue to prevail across much of the mid-latitudes of North America through most of the rest of March.
Sunday, March 11, 2018
Rinse and repeat, another 1-2 feet !!!
We've certainly seen some storms slip through our fingers this year and a soul crushing stretch of February weather that appeared on the brink of permanently closing out the 2017-2018 season at MRG. March arrives, the pattern improves drastically and a "trend is your friend" theme has suddenly dominated the blog. Almost 30 inches on the ground with more coming, a lot more actually.
As of Sunday afternoon, a storm is intensifying and gathering a healthy supply of Gulf of Mexico Moisture. It will already be a formidable system by the time it moves off the Carolina coastline on Monday and it will appear as if it will make a full escape out into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, but you simply can't count any storm out in this pattern. Jet energy will dive in behind the storm , amplifying the pattern and further fueling the system, while continued blocking over the Labrador Sea prevents the aforementioned full escape. The storm will thus make the critical northward turn, pass just east of Cape Cod Tuesday afternoon and get hung up in the Maritimes for a time, somewhat like the last storm. This is a stronger storm from the standpoint of atmospheric pressure and a larger storm geometrically which means that in spite of the less than favorable track, Vermont will be positioned to get some decent snowfall and better than decent snowfall thanks to the storms temporary maritime "hang-up".
Much of southern and eastern New England are positioned to get clobbered with some of the heaviest snowfall through much of Tuesday. Snow will begin across much of the state of Vermont by Tuesday morning and persist steadily throughout the day, accumulating 4-8 inches by the evening. If the storm track can shift westward by 100 or so miles, accumulations could be double that at then some. Even without the shift, snow should continue into Tuesday night and into Wednesday when lingering moisture will combine with the added effects of upslope. The central and especially northern Green Mountains should do especially well as a result with an additional 2-4 inches Tuesday night and another 2-4 Wednesday. And it won't stop there, as moisture will be allowed to pinwheel around the weakening area of low pressure into Thursday thus yielding our 3-day total of 1-3 feet. I am actually being a bit conservative on snow estimates. It's an excellent setup even without the most optimal storm track and I could see the northern Greens overperforming much like we did Saturday night.
Overall this is both a stronger and colder storm. Snowfall should be powdery throughout with temperatures in the lower 20's and we should see stronger north winds though the strongest winds appear to be reserved for eastern New England mainly Tuesday. Winds will shift to the northwest Wednesday and Thursday but remain in the 10-20 mph range with higher gusts at the summits.
Flurries might continue into Friday but the accumulating snow should be over by Thursday. Temperatures are expected to remain well below freezing on the hill through Friday and the St Patrick's day mild push appears less potent although temperatures are likely going to climb above freezing at low elevations by Saturday afternoon. Some underrated good news is that the potential storm that appeared timed for the 18-19th of the month appears delayed allowing the pattern to supply what will be much needed cold air as the precipitation arrives. Within a day or so of March 20th we could see another and this is followed by more March chill that will persist through the end of the ensuing week. Now when I say "March chill", it's a relative term. Late March weather typically consists of many above-freezing days even in wintry patterns but to readers of the blog, I think that goes without saying.
As of Sunday afternoon, a storm is intensifying and gathering a healthy supply of Gulf of Mexico Moisture. It will already be a formidable system by the time it moves off the Carolina coastline on Monday and it will appear as if it will make a full escape out into the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean, but you simply can't count any storm out in this pattern. Jet energy will dive in behind the storm , amplifying the pattern and further fueling the system, while continued blocking over the Labrador Sea prevents the aforementioned full escape. The storm will thus make the critical northward turn, pass just east of Cape Cod Tuesday afternoon and get hung up in the Maritimes for a time, somewhat like the last storm. This is a stronger storm from the standpoint of atmospheric pressure and a larger storm geometrically which means that in spite of the less than favorable track, Vermont will be positioned to get some decent snowfall and better than decent snowfall thanks to the storms temporary maritime "hang-up".
Much of southern and eastern New England are positioned to get clobbered with some of the heaviest snowfall through much of Tuesday. Snow will begin across much of the state of Vermont by Tuesday morning and persist steadily throughout the day, accumulating 4-8 inches by the evening. If the storm track can shift westward by 100 or so miles, accumulations could be double that at then some. Even without the shift, snow should continue into Tuesday night and into Wednesday when lingering moisture will combine with the added effects of upslope. The central and especially northern Green Mountains should do especially well as a result with an additional 2-4 inches Tuesday night and another 2-4 Wednesday. And it won't stop there, as moisture will be allowed to pinwheel around the weakening area of low pressure into Thursday thus yielding our 3-day total of 1-3 feet. I am actually being a bit conservative on snow estimates. It's an excellent setup even without the most optimal storm track and I could see the northern Greens overperforming much like we did Saturday night.
Overall this is both a stronger and colder storm. Snowfall should be powdery throughout with temperatures in the lower 20's and we should see stronger north winds though the strongest winds appear to be reserved for eastern New England mainly Tuesday. Winds will shift to the northwest Wednesday and Thursday but remain in the 10-20 mph range with higher gusts at the summits.
Flurries might continue into Friday but the accumulating snow should be over by Thursday. Temperatures are expected to remain well below freezing on the hill through Friday and the St Patrick's day mild push appears less potent although temperatures are likely going to climb above freezing at low elevations by Saturday afternoon. Some underrated good news is that the potential storm that appeared timed for the 18-19th of the month appears delayed allowing the pattern to supply what will be much needed cold air as the precipitation arrives. Within a day or so of March 20th we could see another and this is followed by more March chill that will persist through the end of the ensuing week. Now when I say "March chill", it's a relative term. Late March weather typically consists of many above-freezing days even in wintry patterns but to readers of the blog, I think that goes without saying.
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