Intense shot of arctic chill in the short term might be the last bitterly cold air we see this season even if snowfall returns for middle of March

 If you, as a casual weather enthusiast, appreciate the flare for the dramatic that Vermont possesses then please enjoy the transition to abruptly colder weather Wednesday evening. The mild, showery weather on Wednesday might even include a few rumbles of thunder. The cold front will pass in dramatic fashion, dropping temperatures over 10-degrees in a matter of minutes around 7 or 8 pm and 40 degrees in a span of 12 hours. Snow is also expected Wednesday evening over the mountains. I continue to think 2-4 inches for the high country that will get very wind blown by the start of the ski day when temperatures are in the single numbers. Some sunshine will try and squeeze its way through the very light wind blown snow showers on Thursday but I would continue to describe the day as very blustery and chilly with temperatures hovering in the low teens. It's quite a transition but my big picture concern is that this is the last legitimate intrusion of arctic air for several weeks and that snowfall will be confined to the wetter elevation sensitive type events in the middle or later part of March. 

Friday's temperatures will recover nicely from single digit readings in the morning to 30-plus readings in the afternoons. Winds won't diminish entirely but will decrease somewhat combined with a healthy dose of sunshine. As temperatures continue to modify over the weekend, it was my hope that we could keep sunshine in place. We have a chance to do that early on Saturday though this jet stream ridge appears dirtier allowing clouds to quickly advance up the coast and ultimately blanking most of New England for at least the later part of Saturday and into Sunday. Temperatures on both weekend days appear likely to eclipse 40 on the mountain but disagreement has emerged for Sunday and into the early part of next week on the extent of mild weather covering northern New England. The Euro has begun to show a low level push cooler temperatures from Quebec confining temperatures to the 30's and 40's during the days while there continue to be other indications of 1-3 days of 50-plus temperatures next week. I am inclined to believe that the cooler outcome has some validity, but there continues to be high risk for another rain event of some sort on Wednesday or Thursday of next week. It also might not be the last wet weather we see in this mild early March regime as ensembles suggest more wet weather for the 2nd full weekend of the month. One theme I would like to hammer home though is the return of clouds which will dominate the outlook beginning this weekend and persisting for better part of the week that follows. 

The return of a more favorable NAO, a neutralized AO and a gradually less angry Pacific support some semblance of normalcy to the Vermont weather picture for the middle of March. Like I mentioned though, arctic cold looks extremely bottled up over our continent, concentrating its focus on Alaska and the Yukon mostly. Snowfall is still possible but I would favor it over the higher elevations and when snow does fall, there will be concerns over snow consistency. A first such opportunity for an elevation style snow event appear to be around March 11th or 12th or about 12 or so days away. It will follow a lot of above freezing temperatures even with a cooler outlook next week.

Beautiful spring Tuesday, rain, wind and excessive warmth for Wednesday and sharply colder weather for Thursday

 If you continue to hope for a return of some winter after March 10th, I have a few breadcrumbs for you. Until then however, we have an ugly debauchery of a winter weather pattern consisting of a well defined jet stream structure favoring both cold and snow in the west and very mild weather in the northeast. This is terrific if you have plans to ski out west over the next few weeks but eastern ski enthusiasts can expect a situation more typical of late March or April. Over the last 15 or so years, the two worst March weather months were 2012 and 2016. Both of these months put salt in the wounds of bad snow seasons. 2012 consisted of a mammoth jet stream ridge over the middle part of the continent which caused the growing season to begin a month early of a wide swath of the country while 2016 was less warm, occurred after the last super nino winter and ensured that the worst snow season I can ever remember in Vermont, stayed that way. Long range indications suggest we might deviate from those outcomes, but that's about as optimistic as I can be. 

The snow forecast for the next 7 days isn't quite zero and I'll get to that in a minute. First, I should alert folks to what will be an outstanding ski day Tuesday consisting of no new snow, but sunshine and near 50 degree temperatures. A few days ago, I wasn't sure if we could "mix out" Tuesday which is a term the meteorology community likes to use sometimes to describe a low level environment where mid level temperatures are fully mixed to the surface. These are typically low pollution days and if the mid-level environment is warm, so will surface temps, sometimes extremely so. Tuesday is such a case and readings should warm well into the 40's and even 50's at base areas, bringing with it the corn horn. I should highlight Tuesday because I can't guarantee that snow cover will return to where it will be tomorrow once this warm weather pattern plays out in the next 10 days. Wednesday is the ugly days with surging dewpoints, gusty south winds and rain which will begin Tuesday night and continue, in sporadic fashion through the ski day Wednesday. We aren't expecting a lot of rain though we are expecting the trifecta of ingredients for snow melt and we should see quite a bit of that by evening with exposed areas in the valley losing about everything. The snowfall, I mentioned above, comes Wednesday night with sharply colder temperatures. Mountains can expect 2-4 windblown inches and there should be some talk about flash freezes with temperatures indicated to drop almost 40 degrees in a span of a few hours. This airmass will come and go, but it is ferocious and will bring temperatures back to the single numbers by early Thursday on the mountain accompanied by gusty west winds. March will thus come in like a lion with near 10 degree temperatures to start Friday before readings  quickly warm to near 40 thanks to full sunshine and winds shifting to a more more mild southerly direction.

Upwards of 3 50-degree days are possible in the period beginning Saturday, March 2nd and ending Wednesday, March 6th. This forecast applies to higher elevation areas of course and base areas could certainly see temperatures hit 60 multiple times over this time frame. The extent of warm weather during the day will likely depend on the amount of sunshine we receive. Rainfall is expected to stay away for the upcoming weekend but will become a risk again by the middle of next week. 

The AO is expected to neutralize as by as early as March 5th and the longer range outlook shows a more blocked downstream environment. The coldest weather in North America is still favored over Alaska and the western part of the North American continent for the middle part of March though there is more evidence that New England will see less milder weather after March 8th. A conflicting set of fundamental indicators isn't enough to produce a miracle March recovery, its simply too late in the season for that. The outlook does look stormier however and perhaps we can neutralize the Pacific a bit further after March 10th and make some magic.

Winter will shift its focus westward as mild pattern prepared to dominate New England through the first 10 days of March

It's admittedly more challenging to forge ahead with blogging efforts with a not so promising weather pattern staring us down in the face. Unless we get saved by the middle or later part of March, this season, which started with so much promise in November, is set to mostly fall apart on us. We certainly didn't get any help from our recent storm Thursday night, which under-performed and wasn't expected to do that much to begin with. Some incoming arctic air for the weekend will retreat northward just as quickly as it arrived and will not be accompanied by the typical round of accumulating snow showers. And then we have a torch for the middle part of next week which has some ugly characteristics I could do without (at least until later in the spring). 

Even as this warm pattern gets better established over eastern North America, cold arctic air will actually be building and expanding across western North America centered over Alaska and the Yukon. These regions are setup for a bitterly cold finish to February and first half of March. Further south, ski country across the west appears promising in early March as well with storminess in the Pacific bringing moisture to both the central and southern Rocky Mountain regions as well as the Sierra Nevada. None of this bodes well for ski areas in the east however. Vermont is set up to have a chilly Saturday with temperatures on the mountain hovering in the low teens accompanied by gusty winds. Winds will shift on Sunday out of milder southwesterly direction and help modify temperatures to near 30 degrees. The later part of Saturday appears to feature some Sunshine and this is expected to carry through Sunday when conditions become more comfortable. 

The fierce mild intrusion next week appears short-lived, but very damaging. I'll get to that in a bit. New snow, if we get it over the next week appears most likely Sunday night from a disturbance receding into Quebec. I am not optimistic on this feature delivering, but it will manage to delay the big influx of warmth by a day.  Following a mostly cloudy and near 40-degree early spring-like day on Tuesday, stronger southerly winds will push temperatures toward 50 by Wednesday morning and near 60 in some valley areas as the day progresses. Dewpoints will climb well into the 40's and a period of rain appears to be a virtual certainty at some points. This combination of weather conditions will be damaging to snow conditions even though colder weather is expected to arrive Thursday evening. The rain doesn't appear especially heavy as of now or pose a flood risk and I can keep the door open that precipitation will change to a period of snow Wednesday night, but support for this is tepid right now. 

The return of colder weather on our leap year day of February 29th represents a very small piece of the intense chill that will be mostly bottled up in western North America for the first 10 days of March. Once again, the cold weather, though intense for a day on Thursday will quickly recede and give way to more early spring-like conditions for the first full weekend in March. This is a broad well-defined pattern which will favor mild weather across New England and much of eastern Canada while cold weather is very focused on western Canada and Alaska. Every single teleconneciton indicator is expected to turn strongly unfavorable over the next week which will help bring this pattern on. By March 10th however, the teleconnection indices neutralize and in the case of NAO/AO are indicated to turn slightly favorable. I have yet to see evidence that a Sudden Stratospheric Warming event will have a material impact on how the polar vortex might impact North America. There is harder evidence however of less mild weather after the 10th and an increased potential for storminess.

Elevation sensitive snowfall Thursday night into early Friday and a mostly wintry weekend even though warm pattern looms

Across the entirety of the United States, February seems destined to finish as the warmest on record, powered largely by unprecedented warmth in the middle of the United States, especially the Dakotas, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa. Hard to find silver linings in a month like this yet there are some, including increased amounts of sunshine and the lack of rainfall. Vermont has also not been at the center of the warmth and will probably avoid having the distinction of recording the warmest month ever. The statistical semantics aside, February of 2018 stands out  as my least favorite in a winter where we saw a lot a lot of early season snow and cold melt away, only to be replaced eventually by one of the most epic March's ever. We need another such March to bring this winter if we are to move this winter out of the "dud" category. 

One thing we have had is some wintry weekends and we get another one to finish off the month of February. We won't get a big storm to materialize this Friday, as expected, but clouds will replace the recent stretch of sunshine on Thursday and an extended period of light snow is expected Thursday night into Friday morning. Valley areas can expect the snow to be of a damp consistency and this is likely to extend to the base of MRG. Slightly colder temperatures are expected closer to the summit areas where the snow will be drier and should continue to fall through noon Friday. I expect 3-7 inches out of this 12 or so hour snowfall event with the range accounting for the elevation sensitivity of the event and the lingering uncertainty as to how much moisture can get pushed into northern New England more generally. I don't expect wind speed to be an issue on most of the mountain Friday, but the directionally speaking, prevailing southeast is typically the one of concern for the single chair. Winds will become northwesterly late Friday evening into Saturday and remain pretty strong bringing a brief period of very intense chill to northern Vermont. I would expect temperatures to remain below 10 on Saturday on most of the mountain with winds chills well below zero. One might additional snow from snow showers late Friday into early Saturday, but this cold appears undercutting in nature providing a stable boundary layer and putting a hard lid on convection. Though we are in the midst of a warm pattern to finish the month of February, Saturday will be one of the coldest skiable days of the season so prepare yourself accordingly. Weather conditions will be very different Sunday following a chilly near zero start to the day. Southwesterly winds will boost temperatures up to near 30 and indications are that we will receive some decent sunshine.

I can't speak much for next week if you like wintry weather. Were I to talk about weather in Alaska, I could write about both blizzards and extreme cold. The recent run of big -PDO winters have brought some decent chill to the 49th state and when they get cold often times we are not. Monday will see temperatures creep above the freezing mark but my concern is for Wednesday, Thursday or both when there is a risk of excessive temperatures and rainfall. 

In the longer range, there's been some talk about a Sudden Stratospheric Warming disrupting what appears right now to be a mild outlook for the month of March. The SSW occurring now has been linked to disruptions in the polar vortex in the troposphere capable of bringing large scale outbreaks of arctic air southward to mid latitude climates. The cutting edge research relating to this phenomenon has been very intriguing, but SSW events have not been reliably predictive because results have varied for each event. Basing the outlook exclusively on ensemble guidance continues to reveal a mild outlook for the first 10 or so days of March. This pattern is likely to breakdown regardless of the impacts of SSW after that, though its difficult to say if we will experience a full reemergence of winter and another big March 13-15th storm that has become tradition in recent winters.

Bluebird weather through Wednesday and less potential for late this week

 The snow drought was broken the past several day with over a foot of new snow falling over a 3-4 day period. Even Sunday the clipper system on Sunday night, which passed deep into Quebec manage to deposit a few inches of snow for Monday as a cool, dry high pressure center builds across the region. We've got three bluebird days lined up for the start of the upcoming week and though we are still running a bit behind for the month in the snowfall department, at least the sun has returned for this month. Monday and Tuesday will feature light winds with chilly sub-10 degree morning temperatures warming to the 20's each afternoon. Wednesday will start out in the single numbers as well before stronger southerly winds boost temperatures into the 30's. Snow conditions should stay dry even on Wednesday thanks to lower dewpoints, at least on most of the mountain. 

We've been keeping our eye on the potential snow for late week for a good while now. Unfortunately the trends haven't been optimal with the hypothetical storm exhibiting some "failure to launch" issues. This is something the Euro model and ensemble have been showing for a few days, basically pushing a disorganized area of southern stream moisture eastward out over the open waters of the Atlantic Ocean while an incoming push of polar energy manages to squash the whole thing before any storm materializes. Other model simulations have been indicating a more promising outcome and have continued to do so as of early Monday though they also have moved in the wrong direction.  I am hopeful the polar jet impulse can at least provide a burst of snow late Friday or Friday night ahead of the last weekend of February but I would certainly like to convey in this update that our chances for big snow in this time frame have taken a hit. We can expect clouds to increase Thursday with milder temperatures followed by some wet snow early Friday and then a cold and blustery Saturday with temperatures falling back into the teens and 20's. Another clipper system will bring clouds and some light snow back to the region Sunday night, but both ski days this weekend appear generally free of accumulating snow. 

Longer range ensembles have moved toward a slightly less bad outcome for late February and early March with the American GFS /Canadian model and its accompanying ensembles indicating much more in the way of storminess as opposed to warmth. The Euro ensemble continues to pound away at the mild outlook for early March. All of the varying solutions indicate a big modification in temperatures early next week and a few spring like days somewhere around our leap year day of February 29th. By the first full weekend in March, there are some indications that potential storminess could get slightly interesting and teleconnections indices which will certainly turn universally unfavorable for the last few days of February, clearly neutralize by March 2nd or 3rd.

Excellent short term outlook with snow falling through Saturday and not such a great longer term outlook with the eventual breadown of cold weather support late in the month !

Wintry conditions have returned to northern Vermont and will be enhanced by a decent snow event Thursday night into Friday. I am not a fan of how the weather pattern appears to be evolving late this month and into early March and I will share all those details in a bit, but for the next 10 days, we should have some excitement and mostly sub-freezing temperatures. 

Snow Thursday evening is mostly light, very fluffy and capable of accumulating a few inches before dawn on Friday. As winds become more northwesterly during the ski day, the snow shower situation appears fantastic, perhaps the best of the season from a low level instability standpoint. The corridor from Sugarbush northward to Smuggs appears positioned to benefit the most from the northwest winds with snow fairly continuous throughout the ski day at varying intensity along with blustery winds. Wind speeds, won't be as intense as Wednesday though still strong enough to bring wind chill temperatures below zero at times with actual temperatures holding around 20. I expect 2-4 inches of snow prior to the ski day Friday and another 4-8 during and after the ski day Friday. Both the low level instability and prevailing flow appear supportive for additional snow showers on Saturday as well. Southern stream moisture will not impact northern New England or any part of Vermont and a miner snow event in Pennsylvania and New Jersey will act as a slight force to suppress snow showers to the north. Still, the instability is strong enough for an additional 2-4 inch accumulation Friday night into Saturday and its all powder with temperatures Saturday holding in the teens. Not bad ! 

The snow showers will finally abate Sunday and temperatures will warm from the single numbers to near 30.  A second clipper system is poised to bring clouds back to Vermont later Sunday with accumulating snow most likely from Stowe northward Sunday night. Mad River Glen appears to be in the 1-2 inch category with this feature, which is passing a bit too far to our north for a significant impact to occur. This clipper system on Sunday night is going to bring some of the coldest air of the season to a large portion of Quebec, though the core of this cold air is indicated to remain mostly in Canada rather than plunge southward into New England. It's been the story of this El Nino winter, a season where the cold air seems to be on the losing end of every battle from the Great Lakes eastward and unless you reside in Alasaka, mild air has generally prevailed everywhere else in the continent as well. The rapid breakdown of this blocking pattern next week downstream over Greenland underscores this description most of all. Less than a week ago, this blocking was expected to be a fundamental support mechanism for a more sustained stretch of colder/wintry weather for the east coast and expectations have now evolved to a point where the cold predicted to position itself over Quebec early next week, quickly moves east over southern Greenland late in the week, erasing any of the blocking once predicted to be positioned there. Thankfully, the wintry outlook has tenuously held on for northern Vermont. Temperatures are expected to remain well below the freezing mark through early Wednesday and some warm advection / overunning snowfall (light) is possible Wednesday or Thursday. 

Ensembles indicate an interesting situation for late next week/ last weekeend in February with an amplifying jet stream in eastern North America and strengthening low pressure coming out of the Ohio Valley. All three ensembles indicate a strong signal for a storm system with much of the cold air support in the rear of the storm powered by the digging jet stream. Temperatures appear mild at the start of this event but certainly supportive for snowfall both Friday evening and Saturday. Windy and very chilly conditions appear likely for at least part of the weekend in question with cold weather prevailing through Monday February 26th. 

Beyond Monday February 26th, the weather pattern appears to entirely break down in terms of being supportive of cold wintry weather. The Pacific appears angry driving both the EPO and PNA into unfavorable territory with the AO/NAO remaining mildly unsupportive. Its not a good recipe for natural snowfall so late in the season anywhere in New England. Yes, this could put the best part of the season to bed, but I was encouraged with the continued weakening of El Nino combined with the neutralizing PDO. Both these features have made life tough for lovers of cold arctic air in North America and a weaker version of both provide some tertiary encouragement for winter to return sometime during the 2nd two-thirds of March.

The 5-day snowfall outlook looks good even though our recent whiff was painful

We whiffed on Tuesday's east coast snow event and I have some concerns about how the weather pattern might evolve very late in February into early March. This constitutes the "bad news" section of the outlook and although I spend sometime expanding on those late month concerns, much of the next two weeks and especially the next 5 days looks promising. 

With the big east coast storm quickly exiting stage right and arctic cold building across the region on northwest flow, the door will get flung open for a round of snow showers. The early morning hours on Wednesday will feature most of the accumulating snow, but lighter snow showers will linger into the ski day and the high country is set up to break its snow drought and receive 2-5 inches while accumulations will be less than 2 in valley areas. The snow early on Wednesday is the first of 3 opportunities for new snow over the next 5 days, all of it falling  in a cold powdery consistency. The 2nd of these opportunities comes from a hybrid type clipper system Thursday evening into early Friday. I'll call it a clipper because some of the energy stems from the amplifying polar jet though some pacific moisture will attach itself to this and will help create a productive snow event for us. The synoptic snow will fall Thursday evening and amount to a few inches while snow showers appear likely through much of the day Friday. 6-12 inches would be my first guess at accumulations for MRG over the 24-hour period beginning Thursday evening. Daytime temperatures should remain in the teens and twenties Wednesday through Friday with single digit readings early Thursday. Those looking for sun, have the opportunity to see some early Thursday before clouds increase and thicken throughout the day. 

Storm or I should say, snow opportunity number 3 comes Saturday and appears most uncertain. I spoke about the lurking southern branch energy/moisture that may or not get totally involved in the east coast weather situation this weekend. If it does, as the GFS model suggests, we could be looking at snow from a legit storm. Assuming it doesn't, another clipper system is likely to bring some additional accumulating snowfall followed by one of the colder ski days of the season Sunday with temperatures potentially hovering in the teens. 

Models have backed off on the idea of a widespread outbreak of arctic cold for the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic areas next week though interior New England is indicated to remain wintry with frigid temperatures either lurking close by in eastern Canada or making an intrusion into Vermont sometime around February 22. The middle part of the week remains the period that has the best next opportunity for snowfall though models are not showing any big storm potential as of early Tuesday. Though the intensity of the cold remains a little uncertain later in the week, I would expect are sub-freezing stretch to continue through the week and the last weekend of February (24th & 25th).Those looking for new snow are likely going to see some although specifics continue to look cluttered and changing every day given the presence of the polar jet. 

The cold weather is indicated to soften after February 25th. The AO is expected to neutralize by then, but my bigger concern is the Pacific which is looking angrier and is likely to focus more cold and snowfall on the west. That doesn't necessarily point toward a dire situation for northern New England and a big snowfall is not out of the question in the final days of February or early March. Temperatures however, should get milder thanks both to a shifting jet stream and the longer late February and early March days.