We whiffed on Tuesday's east coast snow event and I have some concerns about how the weather pattern might evolve very late in February into early March. This constitutes the "bad news" section of the outlook and although I spend sometime expanding on those late month concerns, much of the next two weeks and especially the next 5 days looks promising.
With the big east coast storm quickly exiting stage right and arctic cold building across the region on northwest flow, the door will get flung open for a round of snow showers. The early morning hours on Wednesday will feature most of the accumulating snow, but lighter snow showers will linger into the ski day and the high country is set up to break its snow drought and receive 2-5 inches while accumulations will be less than 2 in valley areas. The snow early on Wednesday is the first of 3 opportunities for new snow over the next 5 days, all of it falling in a cold powdery consistency. The 2nd of these opportunities comes from a hybrid type clipper system Thursday evening into early Friday. I'll call it a clipper because some of the energy stems from the amplifying polar jet though some pacific moisture will attach itself to this and will help create a productive snow event for us. The synoptic snow will fall Thursday evening and amount to a few inches while snow showers appear likely through much of the day Friday. 6-12 inches would be my first guess at accumulations for MRG over the 24-hour period beginning Thursday evening. Daytime temperatures should remain in the teens and twenties Wednesday through Friday with single digit readings early Thursday. Those looking for sun, have the opportunity to see some early Thursday before clouds increase and thicken throughout the day.
Storm or I should say, snow opportunity number 3 comes Saturday and appears most uncertain. I spoke about the lurking southern branch energy/moisture that may or not get totally involved in the east coast weather situation this weekend. If it does, as the GFS model suggests, we could be looking at snow from a legit storm. Assuming it doesn't, another clipper system is likely to bring some additional accumulating snowfall followed by one of the colder ski days of the season Sunday with temperatures potentially hovering in the teens.
Models have backed off on the idea of a widespread outbreak of arctic cold for the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic areas next week though interior New England is indicated to remain wintry with frigid temperatures either lurking close by in eastern Canada or making an intrusion into Vermont sometime around February 22. The middle part of the week remains the period that has the best next opportunity for snowfall though models are not showing any big storm potential as of early Tuesday. Though the intensity of the cold remains a little uncertain later in the week, I would expect are sub-freezing stretch to continue through the week and the last weekend of February (24th & 25th).Those looking for new snow are likely going to see some although specifics continue to look cluttered and changing every day given the presence of the polar jet.
The cold weather is indicated to soften after February 25th. The AO is expected to neutralize by then, but my bigger concern is the Pacific which is looking angrier and is likely to focus more cold and snowfall on the west. That doesn't necessarily point toward a dire situation for northern New England and a big snowfall is not out of the question in the final days of February or early March. Temperatures however, should get milder thanks both to a shifting jet stream and the longer late February and early March days.
No comments:
Post a Comment