Excellent short term outlook with snow falling through Saturday and not such a great longer term outlook with the eventual breadown of cold weather support late in the month !

Wintry conditions have returned to northern Vermont and will be enhanced by a decent snow event Thursday night into Friday. I am not a fan of how the weather pattern appears to be evolving late this month and into early March and I will share all those details in a bit, but for the next 10 days, we should have some excitement and mostly sub-freezing temperatures. 

Snow Thursday evening is mostly light, very fluffy and capable of accumulating a few inches before dawn on Friday. As winds become more northwesterly during the ski day, the snow shower situation appears fantastic, perhaps the best of the season from a low level instability standpoint. The corridor from Sugarbush northward to Smuggs appears positioned to benefit the most from the northwest winds with snow fairly continuous throughout the ski day at varying intensity along with blustery winds. Wind speeds, won't be as intense as Wednesday though still strong enough to bring wind chill temperatures below zero at times with actual temperatures holding around 20. I expect 2-4 inches of snow prior to the ski day Friday and another 4-8 during and after the ski day Friday. Both the low level instability and prevailing flow appear supportive for additional snow showers on Saturday as well. Southern stream moisture will not impact northern New England or any part of Vermont and a miner snow event in Pennsylvania and New Jersey will act as a slight force to suppress snow showers to the north. Still, the instability is strong enough for an additional 2-4 inch accumulation Friday night into Saturday and its all powder with temperatures Saturday holding in the teens. Not bad ! 

The snow showers will finally abate Sunday and temperatures will warm from the single numbers to near 30.  A second clipper system is poised to bring clouds back to Vermont later Sunday with accumulating snow most likely from Stowe northward Sunday night. Mad River Glen appears to be in the 1-2 inch category with this feature, which is passing a bit too far to our north for a significant impact to occur. This clipper system on Sunday night is going to bring some of the coldest air of the season to a large portion of Quebec, though the core of this cold air is indicated to remain mostly in Canada rather than plunge southward into New England. It's been the story of this El Nino winter, a season where the cold air seems to be on the losing end of every battle from the Great Lakes eastward and unless you reside in Alasaka, mild air has generally prevailed everywhere else in the continent as well. The rapid breakdown of this blocking pattern next week downstream over Greenland underscores this description most of all. Less than a week ago, this blocking was expected to be a fundamental support mechanism for a more sustained stretch of colder/wintry weather for the east coast and expectations have now evolved to a point where the cold predicted to position itself over Quebec early next week, quickly moves east over southern Greenland late in the week, erasing any of the blocking once predicted to be positioned there. Thankfully, the wintry outlook has tenuously held on for northern Vermont. Temperatures are expected to remain well below the freezing mark through early Wednesday and some warm advection / overunning snowfall (light) is possible Wednesday or Thursday. 

Ensembles indicate an interesting situation for late next week/ last weekeend in February with an amplifying jet stream in eastern North America and strengthening low pressure coming out of the Ohio Valley. All three ensembles indicate a strong signal for a storm system with much of the cold air support in the rear of the storm powered by the digging jet stream. Temperatures appear mild at the start of this event but certainly supportive for snowfall both Friday evening and Saturday. Windy and very chilly conditions appear likely for at least part of the weekend in question with cold weather prevailing through Monday February 26th. 

Beyond Monday February 26th, the weather pattern appears to entirely break down in terms of being supportive of cold wintry weather. The Pacific appears angry driving both the EPO and PNA into unfavorable territory with the AO/NAO remaining mildly unsupportive. Its not a good recipe for natural snowfall so late in the season anywhere in New England. Yes, this could put the best part of the season to bed, but I was encouraged with the continued weakening of El Nino combined with the neutralizing PDO. Both these features have made life tough for lovers of cold arctic air in North America and a weaker version of both provide some tertiary encouragement for winter to return sometime during the 2nd two-thirds of March.