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Sunday, March 11, 2007

Changeable March weather to continue

With tickets at MRG now discounted to the bargain price of $29 for the duration of the season, the SCWB will also be updated at a discount which essentially means shorter updates and hopefully more to the point (although I'll believe it when I actually see it when it comes to my writing). The cold air has won many formidable battles as of late but mild weather is now in command and plans to remain so for most of the upcoming week. After that, it will be another roller coaster and the models fighting the sibling rivalry regarding the details. I am happy to report however that my take on the situation involves a high probability for one powder day next weekend.

Short term through Wednesday
Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will be sub-freezing in the morning and then warm into the 30's and 40's during the afternoon. Monday will be the sunnier but likely colder of the two with below freezing temperatures persisting longer into the day. There is a chance for a shower during the day Tuesday although whatever falls from the sky should be light. It is Wednesday which appears extremely mild and it is my opinion that afternoon temperatures surge to 50 and perhaps beyond before the day is out. The American Model disagrees with this notion suggesting a cloudier day Wednesday, not as warm, and perhaps some rain overspreading the region late in the day. I am going with the warmer hot off the presses European which would suggest a breezy but dynamite spring skiing type of day if your a fan of the corned-up softness.

Late this week and the weekend
The models have made a mess of themselves for late this week. There is no agreement what so ever regarding the details between Thursday and Saturday. In general however we do have a sense of the progression. At some point either Thursday or Friday we are going to get a healthy period of rain which for a time could become heavy I am sorry to report. I'll have to figure out the details in a subsequent update. As this is happening however a large upper level ridge is expected to build across the western United States which will allow much colder temperatures, which continue to persist across much of northern Canada to dive south into the eastern United States. The cold will invade as early as Friday and the rain may become a significant period of synoptic or terrain induced snow either late Friday or early Saturday. So, in spite of the mild weather and the rain this week, colder weather will return for the upcoming weekend and in all likelihood so will accumulating snow. Hopefully enough to cover any bare spots or ice which may develop.

More mild weather in the longer range
The ridge west/trough east scenario will continue through the first half of next week and in that time frame the colder, below average temperatures will continue to prevail. In addition there appears to be another chance for a snow producing storm between Monday and Wednesday. Wednesday of next week is the spring equinox and also marks the day where both the European and American Ensemble packages start to show an extremely big warm signal for much of the eastern United States including New England. It seems a bit rediculous to talk about agreement in the 11-15 day period when there is little in the first 5-days but the AO is shown to go very positive in this period so all signs point to a warm-up and a potential thaw after the 21st.

The Quick Summary
Warm to cold and then back to warm. New snow appears likely in the cold period beginning late Friday of this week and ending during the middle of next week.

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