Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Thursday, March 15, 2007

Hitting another one out of the park - 16" to 24" of the white stuff for Mr. Shamrock

I don't want to hear any complaints about how the snow is better over some different section of the northeast. MRG is poised to "sweetspot" another big noreaster. And it is no misprint, there will be no place better than the northern half of Vermont and no ski area better to enjoy the big powder than MRG. And no better time since very warm weather continues to loom toward the end of next week and persisting through the rest of the month of March.

The St Paddy's Day Storm of '07

North winds have brought the cold back into the region as of Thursday night and put the mud on temporary leave I am happy to say. Of equal importance was the injection of dry air into the region and single digit dewpoints. This helps to lower the wet bulb temperature which means a lower temperature when the snow is falling which means powder as opposed to wet glop. That powder will begin falling and begin accumulating at 1-2 inches per hour Friday evening. As mentioned a few times the storm evolves as the amplification of a strong eastern upper trough re-energizes the cold front which already has passed us by as of late Thursday. As this storm really begins to get juiced on the Mid-Atlantic coast the dynamics aloft will provide a healthy negatively tilted diffluent area over New England. To put it plainly the aforementioned is a mechanism which throws the deep moisture back into the cold conveyor of the storm. Many times over the past few years it is this very feature which is lacking and thus the moisture and snow get confined to coastal areas. Anyways the track of the storm barring a change will be west of the city of Boston. This will most certainly bring a change to fain for Beantown but will also push the snow/sleet line into Vermont along a southwest to northeast running line. I think our worries over this are minimal. The 1-2 inch an hour snow will become 3-4 inch an hour snow in the pre-dawn hours and by the time the sleet lines nears, our 16-plus inches of snow will have already fallen, the lifts will begin to churn if all goes well.

Any wind hold Saturday ??
The storm will bring with it the classic northeast wind Friday night which will become north Saturday morning. Winds will be rather feisty but I gave this some study after the wind hold situation on March 2nd and discovered that the strength of the low level jet over Vermont in the March 2nd event was incredibly strong and thus produced the threshold winds at the summit. The low level jet is not as strong in this case so my guess is no wind hold but check for any updates. Wind holds are difficult to predict and occur many times because of wind direction rather than speed.

More snow Sunday more snow Monday night
Terrain induced snow stemming from the powerful upper air support associated with the storm will begin Saturday night and mean additional snowfall both before and during the day Sunday. The snowfall Friday night will be of the high density variety, the snow Sunday will be all fluff and very low density and may persist through the evening before tapering off. We could easily do another 4-8" out of this before it subsides A fast moving clipper then brings a round of light snow Monday night before the last round of colder temperatures pushes in late Tuesday into Wednesday.

How warm in the long range ?
And then its the warmth which will come fast and intense and corn up all of the snow by the end of the week. This is not above-freezing warmth either this is potentially 65-degree warmth by Friday the 23rd. Assuming we keep the rain away, some big time spring conditions can be had. There will be oscillations in the intensity of the mild weather but it will persist for a time and seriously eat at the base before the month is out. Nothing unusual for late March but the pattern fundamentals appear especially warm in this case presenting the possibility of another 1998-like late March situation.

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