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Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Winter makes a comeback this weekend but strong indications of warmth perist late this month

The general theme from the last post was "changeable" and while we continue to see a change in the weather at least the theme of the SCWB posts remain unchanged. I continue to give my blessing to Wednesday in spite of what NWS Burlington is suggesting. Heck, why not have a little fun with the short term forecast late in the game. NWS Burlington is calling for showers in the morning Wednesday and then rain in the afternoon with the chance of precipitation at 80 percent. I think most of the rain stays away from MRG during the ski day Wedneday or at least through 3 pm. Instead I think we see a few hours of blue skies to go along with the very mild weather where temps at the base will reach or exceed 50 degrees. We will just have to see what happens but my reasoning behind forecast can be attributed to the nature of this weather system. Most of the vertical motion tomorrow will be frontogenetic and the system tomorrow will become anafrontal. This means that precipitation tomorrow will fall north of the cold front or north of MRG, at least until late in the day.

Winter makes a 5-day comeback after some rain Thursday
As the cold front sags south Thursday the doors will be open for rain which should fall mostly during the morning hours. Drier and colder air will then push south and assume the drivers seat position. Although it will not stay dry the cold weather will remain in place through the middle of next week which opens the door for a resurgence in more winter-like conditions on the mountain. The first chance for snow comes late Friday or early Saturday as the front (now well to the south) is re-energized and an east coast system of a somewhat uncertain nature comes to life. The possibility range is still a bit wide here and if we fail to entrain enough cold air into the region on Friday we could be looking at a cold rain or ice. The more optimistic outcome has snow either late Friday or Saturday and at least a few inches of powder for Saturday. Following a cold and somewhat blustery Sunday, a clipper system approaches for Monday bringing another chance of both synoptic and later terrain induced snow. The cold is then re-enforced very significantly with much below normal temperatures Tuesday or Wednesday.

Long range has a very warm appearance
The long range outlook has changed little since the last update and the already proposed ideas can be amplified further based on the continuing stream of incoming data. Unseasonable warmth of a rather incredible magnitude is the indication for the period beginning late next week and lasting through next weekend. Many of these ideas could change significantly but a fair translation would be for few days where temperatures exceed 60 degrees and a lot of melt. Not unusual I suppose to see anomalous weather in March and such may be the case beginning late next week on the warm side.

The Quick Summary
SCWB fights NWS Burlington for mainly dry weather through 3 pm Wednesday. Winter makes a return for the weekend through the middle of next week and then it could get very, very warm.

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