Think Snow, Tweet Snow !!!

Wednesday, March 21, 2007

Weekend appears mainly dry and sub-freezing only in the early mornings

The warm weather is arriving on schedule but it is not in the format I would have specified. If it decides to warm I was hoping for 50's and at least a couple dry days before any rain. Instead, following some freezing rain/rain and a few hours of sun and mild weather on Thursday, more rain will move in courtesy of fast moving front Thursday night. We will get some wind ahead of the front accompanying both the mild weather/rain and this combined with the high dewpoints will do some damage to the base by the time it dries out Friday. Fortunately, the game shoudn't be over regarding the weekend, a period of time which is expected to be mostly dry. Saturday will feature morning temps below freezing but the snow should quickly respond to above freezing temps before noon. Sunday appears a bit more overcast but again, mostly above freezing and with only a very slight chance for some light rain.

This is one of the last updates of the year since it is entirely no fun to forecast when it will rain and when it will not. First of all, the next 10 days will all feature temperatures which are mostly above freezing during the day since the pattern fundamentals appear very warm. Monday appears dry followed by a chance for showers on Tuesday. Wednesday appears dry and somewhat seasonable but then very mild weather is indicated to precede a potentially more significant period of rain toward the end of the week/month. I would expect at least one extremely mild day ahead of the rain late next week either next Thursday or Friday.

A positive AO combined with an energetic pattern in the northeast Pacific Ocean is driving the pattern over the next 10 days. By the first of April the overall picture appears changed and the sustained above normal temperatures may come to an end. April is a month often full very convaluted jet stream forces which form circumstantially but often are difficult to displace once in place. It is often referred to by weather enthusiasts as "cut-off" season where large and anomalously cool/warm pockets of air at jet stream level are removed from the main jet stream current and provide extended periods of rain, snow, dry weather or mild weather. 1997 we struck it rich and had a spring full of well-positioned "cut-off " lows at jet stream level which meant an unusually high amount of spring snow. I don't recall how late Mad River Glen remained open in the '96-'97 season but it was an epic season at Tuckerman's ravine when if I remember correctly, skiers were riding John Shurbourne to Pinkham Notch well into May.

http://www.uvm.edu/~empact/data/gendateplot.php3?table=SummitStation&title=Mount+Mansfield+Summit+Station&xskip=7&xparam=Date&yparam=Depth&year%5B%5D=1996&width=800&height=600&smooth=0&csv=0&totals=0

1997 featured a period of warm weather early in March before the pattern reverted back to cold. It would not be surprising to see 10 days of mild weather to finish the month of March here and then more cold weather. It may not be enough to keep MRG open well into April but it would be wise to keep the ski's and the winter weather gear handy.

4 comments:

David said...

Josh,

Will soften up tomorrow and when?

Thinking of making the drive, but would hate to get to a frozen base.

thanks...

Jonathan said...

So, what do you predict regarding whether the mountain can stay open until Easter, April 8?

I'm returning for the Shareholder weekend, and I'd really like to be able to ski at MRG, not Stowe or Sugarbush!!

Patrick said...

Don't give up blogging here so soon. I hear talk of significant snow early April!

Jonathan, I may not be Josh, but I'll try to answer your question. I was up there yesterday, and it's very very thin (fun, but thin). Upper mountain off the single is fine, but soon they won't be able to connect the dots to get down. I think Easter may be a stretch.

I know you prefer MRG... but give Sugarbush some credit... it's better than Stowe! And we've got lots and lots of skiing left at the Bush.

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